State Health Plan Population Working Group Presented by Karl Eschbach PhD Current population trends with implications for health care demand Rapid growth rate Geographic shifts Shifts in ethnic composition ID: 260274
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Slide1
Current Demographic Changes in Texas Relevant to Health Workforce Demand
State Health Plan
Population Working Group
Presented by
Karl
Eschbach
, Ph.D.Slide2
Current population trends with implications for health care demand
Rapid growth rate
Geographic shifts
Shifts in ethnic compositionAging of the populationIncreases in morbidity
2Slide3
Fastest Growing States, 2000-2009
State
2000
Population
2009
Population
NumericalChange2000-2009PercentChange2000-2009Rank in Percent ChangeTexas20,851,82024,782,3023,930,48218.86California33,871,64836,961,6643,090,0169.119Florida15,982,37818,537,9692,555,59116.09Georgia8,186,4539,829,2111,642,75820.14Arizona5,130,6326,595,7781,465,14628.62North Carolina8,049,3139,380,8841,331,57116.58Virginia7,078,5157,882,590804,07511.415Washington5,894,1216,664,195770,07413.111Colorado4,301,2615,024,748723,48716.87Nevada1,998,2572,643,085644,82832.31
Source: 2000 Census and 2009 Vintage Census Bureau EstimatesSlide4
Sources of population growth 2008 to 2009+ Births: +410,000
-Deaths: -164,000
+Migration from other countries: +88,000
+Migration from other states: +143,000Total: ~477,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 Vintage EstimatesSlide5
Natural Increase in Texas(Births minus Deaths)
Birth Rate:
16.8 per 1,000 vs.
14.0 for US (2
nd
highest)Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest)Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd high)Texas is young: Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2nd lowest)Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman) 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005 http://wonder.cdc.gov/ Slide6
Natural Increase per 1,000 by state
Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005
http://wonder.cdc.gov/
Slide7
Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, Texas, 2000
Sources: Calculated from Census 2000 5% Public-Use
Microdata
File and
National Center for Health Statistics
Natality
Detail File, 2000,Slide8
Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2008
8
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2008 EstimatesSlide9
Projected Population of Texas to 2040 (Millions)
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections
4Slide10
Population Change by Area, 2000-2008
County
Population
Percent
Increase
Births-Deaths
Migration20002008ChangeForeignDomesticBig 5 Cities 5,524,3156,334,169809,85415nananaBig 5 Counties9,270,90710,768,7091,497,80216981,509580,088-129,327Suburban to Big Five3,567,5104,943,4871,375,97739328,96693,530953,905Border Metros1,777,4292,098,343320,91418288,30293,173-51,103All Other Metros3,328,7023,533,922205,220 6196,14338,559-16,024All Non-Metro2,907,2722,982,51375,241 390,02746,559-45,666Total20,851,82024,326,9743,475,154171,884,947851,909711,785Big 5 Cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort WorthBig 5 Counties: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, TravisSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Counts, 2008 Vintage EstimatesSlide11Slide12
Growth of Texas Race/Ethnic Groups 2000-2008
Race/
Ethnic
Group
2000
2008
GrowthPercent IncreasePercent of GrowthBlack2,349,6412,748,323398,68217.011.5Anglo10,927,53811,525,623598,0855.517.2Latino 6,670,1228,870,4752,200,35333.063.3Asian549,054810,967261,91347.77.5Other/Two +355,465371,58616,1214.50.5Total20,853,82024,328,9823,475,15416.7100.0Sources: 2000 Census, Census 2008 Vintage Estimates10Slide13
Projected Population (Millions) by Race/Ethnicity 2000-2010
Long-term
Growth Migration Scenario
Year
Total
Anglo
BlackLatinoAsian and other200020.911.12.4 6.70.7201024.311.52.8 9.11.0202028.011.83.111.91.3203031.811.83.315.11.6204035.811.53.418.82.0Short-term Growth Migration ScenarioYearTotalAngloBlackLatinoAsian and Other200020.911.12.4 6.70.7201025.411.42.9 9.81.2202030.911.63.413.91.9203037.311.53.919.02.9204044.911.24.325.14.2Source: Texas State Data Center ProjectionsLong-term: ½ of 1990 to 2000; Short-term: Estimated 2000 to 2007Slide14
When do Hispanics pass Anglos in Texas?When do Hispanics become a majority in Texas?
Migration
Scenario
Pass
Anglos
?
AbsoluteMajority?No Migration2034 2040+1/2 of 1990-20002020 2035Observed 1990-20002014 2026Estimated 2000-20072015 2028Source: Texas State Data Center ProjectionsSlide15
15Slide16
Population Growth by Age,2000 to 2008
Sources: 2000 Census, Census 2008 Vintage Estimates
8Slide17
Table 2. Projected Annual Growth Rate:
Total and Ages 65 and older in Texas, 2000-2040
17Slide18
Observed and projected growth by age, 2000 to 2008, and 2008 to 2016
Sources: U.S. Census 2000, 2008 Vintage Estimates, State Data Center Projections Slide19
19Slide20
20Slide21
Projected percent 65-years-old or older, 2000-2040 by areaSlide22
Obese or Overweight 1995-2007
Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSSSlide23
Age and Obesity in Texas 1995, 2000, 2007
Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSSSlide24
Race/Ethnicity and Obesity in Texas, 1995 and 2007
Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSSSlide25
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center ProjectionsSlide26
Insurance coverage and no insurance by type for ethnic groups, 2008
26Slide27
Source: State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007
Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-Care
Limitation or Any Limitation, by Age, 2007Slide28
Source:
State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007
Percent Age of Texans Age 65 or Older Reporting
An Activity Limitation, 2007, by EthnicitySlide29
Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting a
Self-Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming
Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability
Source:
Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection ScenarioSlide30
Contact InformationKarl
Eschbach
, Ph.D.
Professor and Director of Population ResearchDepartment of Internal Medicine-Geriatrics 0460University of Texas Medical Branch
301 University Blvd
Galveston, TX 77555-0460
(409) 747-3516 Phone(409) 772-8931 Faxkaeschba@utmb.edu30