SCR773 May 2021 ERCOT Operations Planning PDCWG June 16th 2021 Discussion Points Current GTBD Parameters amp References Metric to measure Regulation bias and performance Regulation Deployed comparison ID: 932127
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Regulation Bias Analysis Post" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Regulation Bias Analysis Post
SCR-773
May 2021
ERCOT
Operations Planning
PDCWG | June 16th, 2021
Slide2Discussion Points
Current GTBD
Parameters & References
Metric to measure Regulation bias and performance
Regulation Deployed comparison
for last three months.
Total Regulation (net) Deployed Comparison
Regulation Deployed 15-minute interval comparison by each hour for
2018, 2019,
and
2020
months
Regulation Exhaustion Rate
Regulation bias for consecutive 5-min SCED intervals
Time Error & Contributing Factors
Summary
Slide3Current GTBD Parameters
3
Slide4Projected Wind Ramp Rate MAE
4
Slide5Projected Wind Ramp Rate Error
5
Slide6References
6
Slide7Metrics
to Measure
SCR-773 Performance
Trend and monitor the regulation deployed by
hour.Set target of 50 MW for total regulation deployed by hour for peak
hours.
Set
target of 85% for the number of intervals where regulation deployment was both up and down
for
peak
hours.
Track
the Regulation exhaustion rate for all hours (not to exceed
5%).
Using a 50MW filter, target 15 occurrences or less per month for regulation bias of six or more consecutive 5 minute intervals for peak
hours.
Slide8Total Regulation Deployed Comparison
Total regulation deployed for the last three months.
Slide9Total Regulation Deployed Comparison - Monthly
9
Slide10Metric 1
: Regulation Deployed Comparisons
Trend and monitor the regulation deployed by hour.
Slide11Regulation Deployed Comparison
11
Slide12Regulation Deployed Comparison
12
Slide13Regulation Deployed Comparison
13
Slide14Metric 2
: Total Regulation Deployed Comparisons
Set target of
50MW for total regulation deployed by hour for peak
hours.
Slide15Total Regulation Deployed Comparison
15
Slide16Metric 3
: 15-min Intervals Where Both REGUP/REGDN Were Deployed
Set target of 85% for the number of intervals where regulation deployment was both up and
down.
Slide17“Zero” Crossing Regulation
17
Slide18“Zero” Crossing
Regulation
18
Slide19Metric 4: Regulation Exhaustion Rate
Track the regulation exhaustion rate for all hours (not to exceed
5%.)
Slide20Regulation Exhaustion Rate
20
Regulation-Up
May-19
May-20
May-21
All Hours Average
2.18%
2.54%
1.37%
Slide21Regulation Exhaustion Rate
21
Regulation-Down
May-19
May-20
May-21
All Hours Average
4.95%
5.16%
2.32%
Slide22Metric 5
: Stats on REGUP Bias for Consecutive 5-min Intervals
Using a 50MW filter, target 15 occurrences or less per month for regulation bias of six or more consecutive 5-minute intervals for peak
hours.
Slide23Regulation Bias for Consecutive SCED Intervals
23
Slide24Regulation Bias for Consecutive SCED Intervals
24
Slide25Time Error and Contributing Factors
Accumulated Time Error,
Load and Wind
Ramp, PWRR
Error, Start-Up/Shut-Down Hours, STLF Error, and Expected Generation Deviation.
Slide26Time Error Accumulation
26
Slide27Load Profile
27
Slide28Net Load Profile
28
Slide29Load Ramp
29
Slide30Wind Profile
30
Slide31Start-Up & Shut-Down Hours
31
Slide32Short-Term Load Forecast Error
32
Slide33STLF Error Chart
33
Slide34Expected
G
eneration Deviation
34
Slide35Expected Generation Deviation
35
Slide36Expected Generation Deviation
36
Slide37Questions?
Thank you!