a view from IEA Bioenergy Göran Berndes IEA Bioenergy Task 43 Chalmers University of Technology Sweden presented by Uwe R Fritsche IEA Bioenergy Task 40 National Team Leader ÖkoInstitut Germany ID: 270959
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Slide1
I
ndirect land use change - a view from IEA Bioenergy
Göran BerndesIEA Bioenergy Task 43Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden(presented by Uwe R. Fritsche, IEA Bioenergy Task 40 National Team Leader, Öko-Institut, Germany)
Slide2
Need to discuss bioenergy/LUC with regard to
longer term perspectives 2o C
target for 2050 (G8 and UNFCCC)need for radical energy system transformationIncentive schemes and regulation mainly concerned with iLUC favor bioenergy systems with low iLUC risks but which are in other respects inferior (e.g. overall CO2 reduction)
Strict focus on climate benefits from ecosystem protection may lead to increased conversion pressure on valuable ecosystems that have low C density
Slide3
One critical strategic question is how society should use the
”remaining space” for GHG emissionsSlide4
One critical strategic question is how society should use the
”remaining space” for GHG emissions
Some of the emission space might be required to develop a biomass industry capable of providing renewable energy & material services for the world in the long-term
Remaining emission space
Fill it up with fossil carbon
...or use some space for developing alternatives to fossil fuels?
LUC for bioenergy
Non-fossil fuel related
Non-fossil fuel relatedSlide5
Forest bioenergy systems are associated with carbon emissions and sequestration that are not in temporal balance with each other.
Evaluation systems that rely on narrow accounting and short time horizons fail to detect important features of forest bioenergy systems
Active forest management can ensure that increased biomass output need not take place at the cost of reduced forest carbon stocks (but biodiversity is an issue)Forest bioenergySlide6Slide7
Stabilization of atmospheric CO
2 concentrations at levels proposed in relation to the 2-degree target requires
drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions.
Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator
Business as usualScenarios where the atmospheric CO
2 concentrations stabilize somewhat above 450 ppm
.
Even lower levels needed for high likelihood of staying below 2 degree warming
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Atmospheric CO
2
concentration
(parts per million,
ppm
)Slide8
Stabilization of atmospheric CO
2 concentrations at levels proposed in relation to the 2-degree target requires
drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions.
The BAU scenario reduces deforestation to 10% of 2010 level by 2100. Bending the BAU curve to stay below
450 ppm requires drastic energy system transformationBusiness as usual
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Atmospheric CO
2
concentration
(parts per million,
ppm
)
Source: Chalmers Climate CalculatorSlide9
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Atmospheric CO
2
concentration
(parts per million,
ppm
)
The effect of strongly reduced LUC emissions is
relatively small
compared to what is required for reaching such stabilization targets. But the lower the target the more important will LUC emissions be
The difference between the two lower graphs is due to different LUC emissions.
The
upmost graph corresponds to a scenario that has constant deforestation rate equal to the 2010 level up to 2100.
The
lowest graph corresponds to a scenario where the deforestation rate is reduced linearly to reach 10% of the 2010 level by 2100 (same as the BAU case).
Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator