Presentation by Dean T Jamison University of California San Francisco University of California San Francisco May 11 2016 1 51116 This talk is based on The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk ID: 581076
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Pandemic Influenza Risk
Presentation by:Dean T. JamisonUniversity of California, San FranciscoUniversity of California, San FranciscoMay 11, 2016
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This talk is based on
“The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk”ByVictoria Fan, University of Hawai’iDean Jamison, UCSFLawrence Summers, Harvard Kennedy School
NBER Working Paper No. w22137March 2017
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All You Need to Know
r(s) = [ 1 + m( 1 – f )s ] - [ 1 + 1 / ( 1 – f ) ]
expectation of s = m-1 = 0.56
f
atness parameter = f = -2.0
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Overview
BackgroundEstimating the Distribution of SeverityCalculation of Global Costs
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Table 1. Worldwide mortality from selected influenza pandemics, 1700-2000
a
Year
Estimated worldwide pandemic-related deaths (millions)
Estimated world population (millions)
Severity, s
(fraction of world population killed, measured in SMUs)
b
1729
c
0.4
720
6
1781-82
c
0.7
920
81830-33c0.8115071898-1900c1.2163071918-20c,d20-501830110-2701957-58c1 286031968-69c,e1-2 35403-6
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Definitions
Severity, s, is measured in SMUs (standardized mortality units) i.e. units of 10-4.Exceedance probability, r(s), is the probability that a pandemic will have severity ≥ s.Return time, t(s) = r(s
)-1.VSL (a) = value of a statistical life year = 160 x per capita income in high-income countries for person of age a = 35 years.
VSMU(a) = VSL(a) x 10
-4
.
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Severity
expected value of s =
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s
< 4 – estimated from history for U.S.(equivalent to s < 10 worldwide)prob = 0.02assumed value of s = 2.5
Expected value of s = .02 x 2.5 = 0.05 5/11/16
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s
*(4) =
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For severity ≥ 4 : Hyperbolic
r(s) = [ 1 + m( 1 – f )s ] - [ 1 + 1 / ( 1 – f ) ] expectation of s = m-1
= 0.56fatness parameter = f = -2.0
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s
*(4) = 0.56 -
= 0.18
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Fig
1: Exceedance probability5/11/1612
exponential
For s*(4) = 0.18Slide13
Fig
2: Return time5/11/1613
fat-tailed hyperbolic
exponential
For s*(4) = 0.18Slide14
Table 2: Worldwide pandemic risk – two representative scenarios, 2015
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Moderately severe pandemic
(< 10 SMU)
b
Severe pandemic
(≥ 10 SMU)
a
Any pandemic
1. Annual probability,
r
b
2%
1.6%
3.6%
2. Return time, 1/r50 years63 years28 years3. Average severity (SMU)c2.558273. Expected severity, sd0.05 SMU0.93 SMU0.98 SMUSlide15
Table 3: Expected deaths from pandemic risk, by country income group, 2015
a
Income level
b
Low
Lower-middle
Upper-middle
High
World
1. Population (millions)
640
2900
2400
1400
7350
2. Moderately severe pandemics
2.1 Relative pandemic severityc4321-2.2 Expected annual pandemic-related mortality rate, in SMU0.080.060.040.020.052.3 Expected excess deaths per year[ = (1) x (2.2) ] 510018,000
9600
2800
37,000
3. Severe pandemics (all severities combined)
3.1 Relative pandemic
severity
c
10
7
4
1
-
3.2 Expected annual pandemic-related mortality rate, in SMU
1.8
1.26
0.72
0.18
0.93
3.3 Expected excess deaths per year
[ = (1) x (3.2) ]
120,000
370,000
170,000
25,000
680,000
4. Expected totals
4.1 Expected mortality rate in
SMU
b
1.88
1.32
0.76
0.2
0.98
4.2 Expected excess deaths per year
[ = (2.3) + (3.3) ]
120,000
390,000
180,000
28,000
720,000
(430,000-1,000,000)
a
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Table 4: Mortality costs of pandemic risk, by country income group, 2015
(age-dependent VSMU)
Income
level
a
Low
Lower-middle
Upper-middle
High
World
1. Economic parameters
1.1 Income, Y (trillions of 2013 $)
0.762054801.2 Per person income, y (2013 $)7802300820041,00011,0001.3 vb0.7%1.0%1.3%1.6%-2. Pandemic costsc
2.1 Expected annual mortality cost, C (billions of 2013 $)
d
-7
-100
-200
-180
-490
(-290 to -690)
2.2 Annual mortality cost, c
[as a % of income = (2.1) ÷ (1.1)]
-1.1%
-1.6%
-1%
-0.34%
-0.62%
(-0.37 to -0.87%)
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Thank you
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