Challenges to Enterprise Promotion Lack of market potential intelligence The metrics and stats through which this intelligence can be drawn is available till district level only No mechanism to derive which businesses will be viable in a particular block or village ID: 1002408
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Estimating Rural Market Potential vis-à..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Estimating Rural Market Potential vis-à-vis Consumption Pattern – Present Approaches and Beyond towards Market Potential Index
2. Challenges to Enterprise PromotionLack of market potential intelligence;The metrics and stats, through which this intelligence can be drawn, is available till district level only; No mechanism to derive which businesses will be viable in a particular block or villageOvercrowding, herding and eventually high mortality; Entrepreneurship Development Programs (EDPs), batch size of trainee do not conform to market potential thereby, leading to wasted resources.
3. Market potential Assessment – Missed OpportunitiesUntapped internal markets – whose demand exists but supply is limitedHidden markets: whose demand is unknown e.g. solar, sanitation, hygiene, non-FMCG etc.;External markets: which can be tapped through aggregation/ collectivization or clustering Government spending related markets: which facilitate last mile implementation of government programs; Large concentration on internal resources, primary activities and traditional skills
4. Context – Consumption Pattern Per capita income (expenditure) and has significantly impacted its food consumption patterns: changes in food consumption pattern;Expenditure on food items declined from 49.9% to 35.4% whereas expenditure on non food items showed a steady increase from 50.1% to 64.6%;
5. Composition of consumption expenditure of Rural households during the period 1981-2015
6. ReviewsIncrease in expenditures went on non-food items and mostly on “education, medical care, rent and taxes” and “fuel and light”.The consumption pattern of households moved away from cereals and pulses to edible oil, dry fruits and beverages and other processed products;The top 25 items of food basket take a share of 75-86 per cent of food budget. The basic Indian food diet was observed to be constituted of fluid milk, rice, wheat, pigeon peas (arhar), some oil, sugar and meat or fish and the tea;The items recording major increases are cold beverages (654); prepared sweet (393), other processed food (391), ghee (332), bread (328); fish (285), banana (279), biscuits (278), salted refreshment (256), chicken (256) and fluid milk (244).
7. Estimation: Approach (Demand Side)For given Block:Demand per month (Dairy) = Final per capita inflation-adjusted expenditure per month (Dairy) * Population-Block * Population growthDemand per month (General Store) = Final per capita inflation-adjusted expenditure per month (General Store)*Population-Block*Population growthDemand per month (Egg Trading) = Final per capita inflation-adjusted expenditure per month (Egg Training)*Population-Block*Population growthDemand per month (Business) = Final per capita inflation-adjusted expenditure per month (Business) * Population-Block * Population growth
8. Average Demand (Real terms)Blockwise Monthly Average of Household Demand based on HHSRURAL BLOCKS - STATES Sl.No.ProductJ & K HaryanaEastern UPWest BengalGujarat 1Bakery..Bread..Biscuit. ₹ 269.79 ₹ 208.33 ₹ 163.27 ₹ 145.50 ₹ 95.32 2Barber..beautician..salon.services ₹ 121.25 ₹ 164.58 ₹ 253.17 ₹ 199.50 ₹ 61.48 3Blacksmith.services ₹ 76.41 ₹ 65.62 ₹ 207.66 ₹ 29.48 ₹ 41.55 4Breakfast..lunch...dinner.at.Hotel..restaurant. ₹ 99.40 ₹ 229.06 ₹ 118.25 ₹ 71.16 ₹ 78.75 5Bricks.and.Tiles ₹ 764.42 ₹ 768.44 ₹ 264.23 ₹ 566.54 ₹ 670.46 6Cable.TV..services ₹ 292.42 ₹ 186.94 ₹ 134.64 ₹ 168.28 ₹ 134.00 7Cart.purchase ₹ 31.92 ₹ 64.15 ₹ 132.18 ₹ 61.26 ₹ 76.00 8Cement.Products ₹ 181.55 ₹ 198.25 ₹ 231.92 ₹ 152.42 ₹ 341.00 9Centering..construction.services ₹ 203.73 ₹ 547.61 ₹ 143.69 ₹ 199.52 ₹ 234.00 10Tent Services ₹ 316.59 ₹ 271.10 ₹ 294.24 ₹ 145.25 ₹ 200.46 11Chicken ₹ 321.45 ₹ 211.08 ₹ 154.21 ₹ 276.16 ₹ 235.88 12Cigerrette..Pan ₹ 417.28 ₹ 627.52 ₹ 933.40 ₹ 422.54 ₹ 255.77 13Coir..rope. ₹ 55.39 ₹ 53.86 ₹ 113.36 ₹ 17.18 ₹ 22.66 14Cold.drinks...mineral.water ₹ 177.18 ₹ 141.26 ₹ 502.08 ₹ 70.35 ₹ 65.40
9. Average Demand (Real terms)Sl.No.ProductJ & K HaryanaEastern UPWest BengalGujarat 15Computer.services..Internet.CafÃ...printer..scanner...Xerox. ₹ 39.70 ₹ 56.48 ₹ 171.13 ₹ 21.14 ₹ 56.00 16Crockery..Utensils..Vessels ₹ 80.75 ₹ 91.45 ₹ 236.07 ₹ 53.18 ₹ 48.12 17Digital.Studio..Photoshop..videographer. ₹ 36.64 ₹ 38.30 ₹ 114.20 ₹ 15.43 ₹ 15.16 18Eat.ready.to.eat.Cooked.Snacks..Fast.Food.stalls..chowmein.etc....Pani.Puri ₹ 130.02 ₹ 89.66 ₹ 625.56 ₹ 52.67 ₹ 51.33 19Eggs ₹ 172.99 ₹ 146.03 ₹ 156.64 ₹ 138.75 ₹ 85.66 20Electricals..electronics.goods.purchase ₹ 125.12 ₹ 124.42 ₹ 74.42 ₹ 64.96 ₹ 45.71 21Electronics.Repair.services ₹ 108.00 ₹ 156.60 ₹ 56.60 ₹ 45.13 ₹ 34.22 22Flour.mill.services ₹ 167.00 ₹ 122.80 ₹ 172.80 ₹ 49.69 ₹ 107.82 23Food.catering.at.office.or.ceremonies ₹ 175.90 ₹ 291.38 ₹ 191.52 ₹ 56.32 ₹ 223.00 24Footwear ₹ 188.71 ₹ 183.83 ₹ 83.83 ₹ 86.87 ₹ 79.86 25Fresh.Flowers ₹ 156.96 ₹ 10.58 ₹ 22.58 ₹ 99.48 ₹ 78.86 26Fuel..firewood.and.chips..dung.cake..coal..charcoal. ₹ 36.10 ₹ 179.03 ₹ 123.03 ₹ 415.60 ₹ 205.12 27Furniture, floor mattings ₹ 360.93 ₹ 159.79 ₹ 159.79 ₹ 181.65 ₹ 176.01 28Garment,Cloth ₹ 322.00 ₹ 469.88 ₹ 469.88 ₹ 252.63 ₹ 22.58
10. Average Demand (Real terms)Sl.No.ProductJ & K HaryanaEastern UPWest BengalGujarat 29Gas.Refilling...parts..services ₹ 382.32 ₹ 284.68 ₹ 284.68 ₹ 430.27 ₹ 1,524.15 30Generator.services ₹ 315.81 ₹ 57.66 ₹ 57.66 ₹ 59.26 ₹ 72.11 31Goat.meat..mutton ₹ 49.49 ₹ 245.68 ₹ 245.68 ₹ 185.70 ₹ 110.55 32Hardware shop ₹ 227.69 ₹ 201.12 ₹ 101.12 ₹ 99.70 ₹ 99.21 33Kirana ₹ 2,504.63 ₹ 2,350.43 ₹ 2,750.43 ₹ 1,957.45 ₹ 673.86 34Ladies items - cosmetics ₹ 195.71 ₹ 213.84 ₹ 113.84 ₹ 108.94 ₹ 33.00 35Laundry.services ₹ 11.07 ₹ 50.28 ₹ 80.28 ₹ 44.74 ₹ 74.23 36Mechanic.services..Two.wheeler.Repair. ₹ 156.75 ₹ 217.59 ₹ 117.59 ₹ 91.83 ₹ 32.01 37Medical.center..services..doctor.s.clinic..diagnosis.center. ₹ 273.29 ₹ 378.17 ₹ 226.17 ₹ 132.85 ₹ 161.78 38Medicine..allopathic..ayurvedic.etc. ₹ 273.05 ₹ 269.74 ₹ 169.74 ₹ 153.18 ₹ 79.29 39Milk & Milk Products ₹ 1,389.50 ₹ 2,062.67 ₹ 672.67 ₹ 604.80 ₹ 183.83 40Mobile.Shop.for.mobile.purchase..repair.or.song..video.download ₹ 270.05 ₹ 156.71 ₹ 256.71 ₹ 101.27 ₹ 75.54 41Nursery.plants.purchase ₹ 107.81 ₹ 60.78 ₹ 40.78 ₹ 43.24 ₹ 37.20 42meat ₹ 74.67 ₹ 52.78 ₹ 152.78 ₹ 250.62 ₹ 346.59 43Plastic.products..bucket..pots..other.plastic.items. ₹ 45.02 ₹ 67.48 ₹ 87.48 ₹ 27.42 ₹ 690.09
11. Average Demand (Real terms)Sl.No.ProductJ & K HaryanaEastern UPWest BengalGujarat 44Private.Tution.services ₹ 63.88 ₹ 665.56 ₹ 365.56 ₹ 552.91 ₹ 223.88 45Rice.mill.services ₹ 491.72 ₹ 435.60 ₹ 335.60 ₹ 67.82 ₹ 56.72 46Saree.and.ladies.ethnic.wear..Kurta.pyjama.salwar.kameez. ₹ 353.65 ₹ 225.34 ₹ 125.34 ₹ 161.10 ₹ 153.65 48Snacks..papad..bhujiya..namkeen..chips..packaged.groundnut..other.local.fried.snacks. ₹ 253.22 ₹ 36.71 ₹ 136.71 ₹ 105.95 ₹ 121.22 49Soap.and.detergent..Washing.soap..soda..powder. ₹ 366.96 ₹ 218.34 ₹ 189.34 ₹ 232.33 ₹ 266.96 50Spectacle services ₹ 10.61 ₹ 12.44 ₹ 25.44 ₹ 30.04 ₹ 20.61 51Spice.processing services ₹ 159.05 ₹ 163.49 ₹ 134.49 ₹ 58.37 ₹ 59.05 52Stationery notebooks ₹ 117.88 ₹ 129.89 ₹ 87.89 ₹ 84.41 ₹ 87.88 53Sweet ₹ 137.74 ₹ 130.10 ₹ 95.10 ₹ 57.27 ₹ 47.74 54Tea coffee ₹ 433.09 ₹ 493.15 ₹ 356.15 ₹ 489.61 ₹ 557.09 55Toys.or.Sport.goods.purchase ₹ 59.19 ₹ 75.35 ₹ 55.35 ₹ 38.74 ₹ 29.19 56Vegetable.and.fresh.fruits ₹ 1,079.98 ₹ 1,433.13 ₹ 1,133.13 ₹ 995.31 ₹ 979.98 57Water.Cans.purchase ₹ 128.26 ₹ 344.20 ₹ 144.20 ₹ 24.84 ₹ 28.26
12. Estimation: Approach (Supply Side)For given BlockBlock-Sales per month (Dairy)= ∑ Sales per month for all Enterprise Type = DairyBlock-Sales per month (General Store) = ∑ Sales per month for all Enterprise Type = General StoreBlock-Sales per month (Egg Trading) = ∑ Sales per month for all Enterprise Type = Egg TradingBlock-Sales per month (Chicken) = ∑ Sales per month for all Enterprise Type = ChickenSupply-Block-Sales per month (Business) = ∑ Sales per month for all Enterprise Type = Business
13. Block Coefficient For given block, Block Coefficient = Average (Blockn num-branches/District num-branches Average, Blockn good house average/ District good house Average , Blockn HH banking %/District Households banking, Average, Blockn electricity %/District Electricity Average)
14. Block Coefficients: ScopeDimensionsWeightMeasuresMarket Size25/100Electricity Consumption Rural PopulationMarket Intensity15/100GNI per Capita Estimates Private Consumption as a percentage of GDPMarket Growth Rate12.5/100Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Primary Energy Use Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of GDPMarket Consumption Capacity12.5/100Consumer Expenditure Major Income Share of Middle-Class - Specific to the context Household Annual Disposable Income of Middle-Class Commercial Infrastructure10/100Road connectivity Cellular Mobile Subscribers Households with Internet Access Internet Bandwidth Logistics Performance Index (LPI) Population per supply Outlet Market Receptivity10/100Per Capita purchases from external market Trading as a Percentage of total supplies Economic Freedom7.5/100Economic Freedom Index (Heritage foundation – Index of Economic Freedom) Political Freedom Index (Same as Above) Risk 7.5/100Business Risk Rating Block Risk Rating Block level Political Risk Rating
15. Market Potential IndexEntrepreneurs have the choice Challenges are well considered.Appropriate market Strategy definedChoices are appropriate
16. Thanks and your comments please