Indian Oil Scenario Indian Oilseed Sector 201617 At a Glance Area Under Oilseed Cultivation 282 Million Hectare Average Yield 960 kg Output of 9 Cultivated Oilseeds 271 Million ID: 829972
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Slide1
Presented byMr. Atul Chaturvedi
Indian
Oil
Scenario
Slide2Indian Oilseed Sector 2016-17(At a Glance)
Area Under Oilseed Cultivation
28.2
Million HectareAverage Yield960 kgOutput of 9 Cultivated Oilseeds*27.1 Million TonOutput of Cottonseed & Copra*11.5 Million TonTotal38.6 Million TonProduction of Oilcake/Meal27.4 Million TonProduction Edible & Non-edible Veg. Oils7.6 Million TonDemand of Veg. Oils (Edible)22.0 Million TonImport of Veg. Oil 2016-17 (Edible)15.0 Million TonPer capita consumption(approx) 17 Kg
The Overall turn over of the oilseed sector is Rs.175,000 Crores (28 Billion) and on import front, its 3rd item after Crude Petroleum and Gold. India spending over Rs.70,000 crores (11/12 bln.$) for import of edible oils per annum and dependence on import is nearly 70%.* Trade Estimates
Slide3Oilseeds Production (Trade Estimate)
(2012-13 to 2016-17)
Major Oilseeds
12-1313-1414-1515-1616-17Groundnut4.36.54.94.56.9Rape/Mustard6.96.75.15.97.2Soybean10.79.58.57.210.6Others2.82.62.62.72.4Sub-Total24.725.321.120.3
27.1Cottonseed
10.2
12.5
11.910.910.9Copra0.60.70.60.60.6Grand Total35.538.533.631.838.6
Source: SEA
Note :
Government
estimate for major nine oilseeds is higher than trade
estimate
Stagnant Oilseed Production. Soya and Mustard languishing
Groundnut should not be considered an Oilseed.
Oilseed production increase has not kept pace with increase in consumption.
Slide4Estimates for oilseed Production 2016-17 Vs 2017-18
Oilseed
Production
in Million tons2016-172017-18Change in % Groundnut 6.96.6(-) 4.3Soybean10.69.0(-) 15.09Rape Mustard 7.27.0(-) 2.7Others2.42.5(+) 4.1Total27.125.1(-) 7.3Cottonseed10.912.4(+) 13.7Copra0.60.6Total38.638.1(-) 1.3Bumper Cotton crop has cushioned the shortfall of Soya and Groundnut.Cottonseed is now emerging as India’s top oilseed. Soya, Groundnut loosing ground.
Slide5Domestic Oil Availability 2016-17 Vs 2017-18
Oil
2016-2017
2017-2018Groundnut oil5.705.70Soya14.414.4Rape Mustard18.718.7Cotton12.413.2Rice Bran9.610.0Others9.78.5Total70.570.5The source of the above data is Govind Bhai and his GGN-research.Govind Bhai anticipates increase of 6.10 lakhs MB of domestic oil on account of large carryout.We feel crushing may remain lukewarm and carryout is becoming a norm.We feel oil availability domestically may remain same.
Slide6Edible Oil Consumption in India (Oil wise)
Particulars
2001-02
2007-082015-16Qty%Qty%Qty%
Palm Oil
2944
29.08
443735.81968545.41
Soy Oil
2258
22.30
2170
17.51
4872
22.84
Mustard Oil
172117.00181414.6419389.09Sunflower Oil3093.055394.3515417.22Cotton Oil4434.3810708.6412675.94Groundnut Oil121612.016895.562391.12RBO4304.257706.219304.36Others8047.949017.278584.02Total10125100%12390100%21330100%
Consumption has grown from 10Mln to 22Mln in 16 yrs.( 120%)
Domestic oils now constitute only 30% of total consumption.
Consumption of Palm oil in India is now nearly 45% of the total consumption followed by Soybean oil and Rapeseed Oil.
Slide7Per capita consumption of edible oil in India vs. World
S. No
Year
IndiaWorld12000-200111.118.9522009-201013.324.54
3
2016-2017
17
25Rising income levels and cheap imports have helped increase per capita consumption.Indian Growth story is very much intact and our demand will keep growing.
Slide8Import Break-Up (MMT)
Oils
2014-15
2015-162016-17Palm (Edible)9.548.448.9Soybean Oil2.994.234.0
Sun Oil
1.54
1.52
1.80Rapeseed Oil0.350.38
0.30
Sunflower
Oil
-
0.01(--)
-
Total
14.42
14.5715.0Palm constitutes biggest slice of oil import followed by Soya and Sun.Incremental imports in last few years have been cornered by Soft OilsSunflower Oil imports may rise on account of duty advantage Imports may rise by one million tons per annum
Slide9Import Projection 2017-18
Oilseed
Projection (Million Tons)
Palm9.50Soya4.0Sunflower2.0Rapeseed0.30Total15.8Import may go up by 0.8 to 1.0 million tons.We project consumption growth at around 4%.Sunflower and Palm may gain while Soya may remain unchanged in volumes.
Slide10Indian Consumption Growth Expectations
Year
Population
@ 1.76%GrowthConsumption@ 3% GrowthConsumption@ 4% GrowthConsumption@ 5% GrowthIn Bn.Per Capita(In Kg)MnTPer Capita(In Kg)MnT
Per Capita
(In Kg)
MnT
20151.2515.2
19.00
15.6
19.5
15.9
19.87
2017
1.28
16.0
20.4817.021.7517.422.2720191.3117.022.2718.023.5819.125.0220211.3418.023.7919.525.7021.027.7220231.3819.025.2421.127.8023.230.5620251.4220.226.7822.830.025.633.69Assuming 4% growth we may require 30MMT by 2025.Import s can rise to 21-22 million ton if oilseed production stagnates.Edible Oil security in danger.
Slide11What needs to be done ?
Land consolidation through leasing and
C
orporate farmingAllow GM cultivationEncourage Mustard & Soya CultivationSupport Producer instead of ConsumerBury Essential Commodities Act.Encourage Palm cultivation in South India
Slide12Thank You