Stephanie Pfirman and Jessica Brunacini Columbia University and Barnard College 1 http wwwarcticnoaagov future seaicehtml Loss of Summer Sea Ice 2 Seasonal Variations In Sea Ice ID: 715273
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Arctic SMARTIC -Strategic Management Of Resources In Times Of Change
Stephanie Pfirman and Jessica BrunaciniColumbia University and Barnard College
1
http://
www.arctic.noaa.gov
/future/
sea_ice.htmlSlide2
Loss of Summer Sea Ice2Slide3
Seasonal Variations In Sea Ice
3
Maximum: Winter = February/March
Minimum: Summer = SeptemberSlide4
Current Sea Ice Extent4Slide5
Warming Atmosphere and Ocean Means Less Sea IceRecord low monthly
sea ice extents were set in 10 of last 14 months:January 2016FebruaryAprilMayJuneOctoberNovemberDecember
January 2017February
5http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2016/ArtMID/5022/ArticleID/271/Surface-Air-TemperatureSlide6
Sea Ice Projections End Of Winter End Of Summer
~2010
~2040
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html
Thickness
ThicknessSlide7
Arctic MattersSlide8
Actual Resolution of Decades-long Territorial Dispute Between Norway and Russia Using “Getting To Yes” Negotiation Strategy and Marine Spatial Planning
1 = North Pole2 = Lomonosov
Ridge3 = 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone4 = Russian-claimed territory (w/disputed area)Slide9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Spatial_Planning
Marine Spatial PlanningSlide10
MSP ExampleSlide11
“Getting To Yes”: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving Inhttp://www.williamury.com/books/getting-to-yes/Slide12
SMARTIC Game Play: Phase IThe area to be
managed is the Arctic marine region.Based on the stakeholder information provided (readings and maps) and keeping in mind future changes in sea ice cover, players mark on the large map
their top 3 areas of high priority interest and/or concern.
Once all players mark their areas of interest on the map, stakeholders resolve conflicts where interests overlap using the “Getting to Yes” strategy. The goal is to develop a future-oriented (~2040) multiuse management plan
for this region.Note that your SMARTIC stakeholders represent user groups, not nations.Slide13
SMARTIC Game Play: Phase I Stakeholder Negotiation PointsTechnologies
Double hulled shipsRelief drilling wellsEnergy efficiencyLimits on ballast water dischargeLimits on black carbon outputNoise reductionEcosystem-based management
Logistics
Limited
operation times/locations:Avoid animal migration pathwaysSuspend operations before seasonal sea ice regrowth
Ice/storm preparedness trainingEmergency response plansIncluding assistance from other stakeholdersMoratorium on activities
Resources
Money
Including investments in communities, i.e., jobs, infrastructure, development
Political power
Lawsuits
MediaSlide14
SMARTIC Game Play: Phase IICrisis Scenario!
Enormous Oil Leak Threatens Arctic OceanNew York Times, November 14 2031
Not since the Deep Water Horizon spill more than 30 years ago has there been such a massive release of oil into the ocean. Arctic rim nations are scrambling to meet the technologic and economic challenges posed by the leak which occurred just as winter is setting in, hindering abilities to respond.
Respond to crisis in the role of your stakeholderNegotiate new management strategies as neededSlide15
SMARTIC DebriefHow did players resolve strategies within the different groups?Did the strategies change from one region to another as the environmental conditions changed, or due to involvement of different stakeholders?
How did the crisis influence the strategies?Which stakeholders are typically in alignment?Which stakeholders are typically in conflict?Which stakeholders stand to gain most?Which stakeholders stand to gain least?If others played this game, what would they learn?Your affective response is important in learning – how did you feel during and after playing this game?
How effective was this activity in helping you to:Identify key issues related to Arctic climate change?Understand multiple stakeholder perspectives?
Engage in decision-making and problem-solving?Slide16
What Else Will Happen?16
Narwhal
Grolar or
Pizzly
Grizzly
Polar Bear
Narluga
BelugaSlide17
What Can We Do?Adaptation, Mitigation, Communication
17Slide18
Need For a Sea Ice Management PlanThe
“Last Arctic Sea Ice Refuge”aka
“Last Ice Area”
As summer sea ice diminishes, the region north of Canada and Greenland is likely to retain ice for longer than other areas of the ArcticThis region, plus its ice shed should be recognized and handled as a special area
18
Proposal currently underway for World Heritage Site designationSlide19
White Arctic, Blue Arctic, White Arctic?19
Newton,
Pfirman
, et al. 2016Slide20
Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) = Emissions Reductions +
Carbon Capture And Sequestration20
http://www.energyacademy.org/assets/images/posts2013/air-capture1highres_0.jpg
Schlosser,
Pfirman, et al. 2016Slide21
+ Solar Radiation Management?21Slide22
White Arctic, Blue Arctic, White Arctic?22
Newton,
Pfirman
, et al. 2016Slide23
23White Arctic
Blue ArcticArctic residentsArctic residents
Tourism
TourismFishing
FishingEnvironmental groups
Oil, gas, mineralsGlobal coastal communities/cities—sea level rise
ShippingGlobal society—temperature maintenance
Inertia—existing infrastructure
Northern hemisphere residents—weather?
Newton,
Pfirman
et al. 2016Slide24
Talk With Friends About Climate Change 24