Multipolar World The cards of global power are being reshuffled Demographic Change The NorthSouth dichotomy is gradually dissolving Economic Justice The arithmetic of Inclusive Growth does not add up ID: 634670
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Slide1
Resource JusticeGrowth and economic development are scarce goods
Multipolar WorldThe cards of global power are being reshuffled
Demographic ChangeThe North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Economic JusticeThe arithmetic of “Inclusive Growth” does not add up
Climate JusticeThe widening gap betweencause and effect
Global GovernanceWhat the global communityis doing
“Global Transformation”
Facts in 6 x 11 FiguresSlide2
… fundamental transformation towards
more sustainable modes of production
and consumption (
Markard
et al. 2012)
Transformation can be induced by
niche innovations putting pressureon the regime level (Mersmann 2010)… is often “the result of many unlike processes “(Loorbach & Rotmans 2005)… fundamental shift … that includesguidance and visions for a sustainable future(Mersmann 2010)
Few changes are truly transformational(
Mersmann 2010)
While all transformations are changenot all change is transformational
(
Daszko
& Sheinberg, 2005)
Transformation is the creation and
change of a whole new form, function
or structure (
Daszko
& Sheinberg 2005)
To transform is to create something new
(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
Transformation is motivated by survival(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
Challenging assumption ..and paradigms... is at the heart of transformation (Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
In transformation there is no known destination(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
It is not a new way to do business(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
It is a new way to develop thinkingabout how to think(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
There is no transformed organisationbecause transformation is ongoing(Ruiz 1997)
Without intention, transformation will be reduced to change(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
Transformational change … occur when theexisting set of ideas that create order andstability no longer work (Middletown 2007)
Transformational change does not address <economic> failures … <but> uses these failings to argue for fundamental change (Middletown 2007)
Transformation is an approach, a philosophy and a methodology(Glass 2010)
<in transformation> the future stateis unknown when you begin(Anderson 2011)
Change fixes the past. Transformation creates the future.(theprimes.com/)
Transformational change means you can’t go back (imaworldwide.com)
<the Great transformation> very much depends on ‘organising the unplannable’ (WBGU 2011) Slide3
Transformational processTransformational policies
Transformative learningTransformational development
Transformational changeTransformative research
Structural transformation
Low carbon transformationTransformation of a sector
Transformation educationTransformation of a whole economy
Transformation researchTransformative educationTransformation knowledgeTransformative thinkingTransformative actionTransforming Practice Transforming citiesTransforming culturesTransforming hopeTransforming freedomConflict transformationTransformative justiceTransformative shiftsSlide4
«Ours is a colourful and diversified world
It is also a complex one»Li Peng
Multipolar World
The cards of global power are being reshuffledSlide5
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Measured in terms of GDP, the recent economic crises
have hit the industrialized economies the hardest
….
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/06/jahan.htm
1Slide6
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
… though producing
not
only losers but also winners,
as recent statistics from the USA demonstrate
2
https://rwer.wordpress.com/category/the-economy/inequality/ Slide7
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Emerging and developing economies already make up
more
than 50 percent of global GDP
…
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/120513.htm
3Slide8
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
… China, Brazil and India alone generate almost one third of global economic output – not for the first time in history
http://
www.un-ngls.org/spip.php?page=article_s&id_article=4260
4Slide9
Source: Human Development Report 2013
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
The share of world merchandise trade is nearly
equal
between
the
Northern and Southern hemisphere nations5Slide10
http://
www.economist.com/node/21528591
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Already in 2020, there will be at least five emerging
economies in the world’s top ten economies
6
http://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/07/special-report-top-10-largest-economies-in-2020.html Slide11
Source: Human Development Report 2013
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
China is the largest trading partner of the poorest countries
in the Global South, with a rising trend
7Slide12
http://
www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2013-12-11/5-questions-answered-on-why-the-g20-is-a-big-deal/1230564
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
More and more, the “Group of Twenty” (G20)
is metamorphosing into a sort of world government
8Slide13
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
The number of autocratic states has declined
,
but there is a
worrying rise in the number of
anocracies
(weak states)
9
http://
www.systemicpeace.org/conflict.htm
Slide14
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Despite the advance of democracy, the legal and policy
spaces for civil society are shrinking worldwide
10
http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Policy%20Brief%20-%20%20Resisting%20the%20Global%20Crackdown%20on%20Civil%20Society%20-%
207-11-13.pdf
Slide15
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
The revenues of the
top
500 multinationals
are
estimated at 50% of World
GDP;
Google alone is as
“rich”
as the 28 poorest countries
11
http://2thetopdesign.com/how-much-is-google-worth-2010-revenue-stats
/
Slide16
Demographic change
The North-South dichotomy is dissolving“Today in the era of globalization there is no such issue as borders between states of the same nation.”
Fatos NanoSlide17
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Today, four out of five world citizens live
in the Global South, and every second in South-East Asia
1
http://www.visguy.com/2009/10/01/village-of-100-people-diagrams
/
http://
waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/what-if-all-71-billion-people-moved-to.html
The North-South dichotomy is dissolvingSlide18
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
World population will continue to grow considerably,
but more slowly than in the recent past
2
http://
www.economist.com/node/14743589
http://
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
Slide19
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Since 2007, and for
the first time,
more people have been living in urban than in rural areas, and the trend towards urbanisation will continue
3
http://
www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
Slide20
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
The reality of aging societies will increasingly
affect the southern hemisphere too.
4
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
http://
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
Slide21
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Political and economic discrimination against women is a
worldwide phenomenon and not just a development issue
5
https://
unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/Worldswomen/
wwPoweranddec2010.htm
Source: World
D
evelopment Report 2012 p. 200
http://
siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1320950747192/8260293-1322665883147/WDR_2013_Report.pdf
Slide22
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Since 1995, the number of jobs has increased
continuously
,
but so too has the number of people without employment
6
Source: IMF, Finance and development March 2006Slide23
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Youth without paid employment is increasingly
becoming a challenge for developed societies
7
http://
www.economist.com/news/international/21576657-around-world-almost-300m-15-24-year-olds-are-not-working-what-has-caused
Slide24
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
The middle class is expected to grow almost exclusively in the «Global East», and consumer markets will accordingly shift further eastwards
8
Source: Human Development Report 2013
http://www.agweb.com/blog/ecopragmatism
/
Slide25
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Conflict, poverty and exclusion are the root causes of flight; the growing phenomenon of environmental refugees is
alarming
9
http://www.internal-displacement.org
/
Slide26
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Migration within the Global South is more significant
than North-South migration
10
http://
www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2012_persp_glob_dev-2012-en#page80
Source: OECD 2012, Perspectives on global development Slide27
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is
gradually dissolving
Migrants’ remittances have become a substantial economic factor
far more important than official development aid
11
http://
siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/
MigrationandDevelopmentBrief18.pdf
http://
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/09/Chami.htm
Slide28
“We can either have democracy in this
country
or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”
Louis Brandeis
Economic justiceThe arithmetic of “Inclusive Growth” does not add upSlide29
Economic Justice
:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Since the turn of millennium the
absolute number of people living in absolute poverty
(< 1.25$
a day)
has
decreased significantly…
1
http://
www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/State_of_the_poor_paper_April17.pdf
Slide30
Economic Justice
: The
arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… though almost exclusively in China
2
http://filipspagnoli.wordpress.com/stats-on-human-rights/statistics-on-poverty/statistics-on-poverty-and-absolute-income-levels
/
Slide31
Economic Justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… but the share of population living below national poverty lines
is still high in a large number of countries
3
http://
cesr.org/article.php?id=918
Slide32
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Extreme poverty is rife mainly in rural areas,
with the exception of Latin America
4
http://
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/09/ravalli.htm
Slide33
Economic Justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
In the 19
th
century, class status primarily explained inequality among people, today it is place of birth
5
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Special-Feature/Detail/?
id=172351&contextid774=172351&contextid775=172467
Slide34
Economic justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Less than 100 of the planet’s richest own the equivalent
of the poor half of the world’s population
6
http://
www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/52e8d19751750.pdf
Slide35
Economic Justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
In the past 20 years, the super-rich have
become
disproportionately richer in most countries and regions …
7
http://
www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2012_persp_glob_dev-2012-en#page80
OECD 2012, Perspectives on global development p. 105Slide36
Economic justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… and this is particularly true for the
«growth and poverty miracle» China
8
http://
www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/52e8d19751750.pdf
Slide37
Economic Justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
The Gini index by world regions shows that:
accelerated growth leads to rising inequalities
9
http://
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/res1010a.htm
Slide38
Economic justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Economic productivity has grown considerably, but not
wages, as demonstrated by the case of the US …
10
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2013/03/wage-and-productivity-effects-of-internet-trolling-by-matt-yglesias
/
Slide39
Economic Justice:
The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… which explains, why a large share of the US population
does not belong to the “winners of economic growth”
11
http://www.decisionsonevidence.com/2011/08/introduction-rising-inequality-in-america
/
Slide40
“No one denies that our problems would
be easier to solve if we were richer.
The question is, does growth any longer make us richer, or is it now making us poorer?”
Herman Daly
Resource JusticeGrowth and economic development are
scarce goodsSlide41
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
The «great acceleration»: Since the Second World War
World GDP has almost exploded
1
http
://www.gallus-group.com/pt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-367/533_read-1474
/
Slide42
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
This explosion in growth was only made possible by
massive exploitation of natural resources …
2
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdfSlide43
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
… leading to a shortage of resources in real terms
at the expense of future generations
3
http://ingienous.com/?page_id=6983
Slide44
http://www.materialflows.net/fileadmin/docs/materialflows.net/matflow_FS4_web.pdf/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Technological progress was not able to prevent increasing scarcity of resources (rebound effect) – ‘growth without resources’ is a myth
4Slide45
http://www.materialflows.net/trends/analyses-1980-2008/global-resource-extraction-2005-2030/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
If the present trend continues, the exploitation of resources
will double within just one generation…
5Slide46
http://
www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/newsletter/det/human_demand_outstripping_natures_regenerative_capacity_at_an_alarming_rate
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
… although we are
now already consuming
the resources of one and a half worlds
6Slide47
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_nations/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Between the world regions, there are substantial differences
in per-capita consumption and per-capita availability of resources
7
Region/
CountryFootprint pc ,2007Biocapacity pc, 2007Balance
Africa
1.4
1.5
+0.1
Asia
1.8
0.8
-1.0
China
2.2
1.0
-1,2
Europe
4.7
2.9
-1.8
Switzerland
5.0
1.2
-3.8
Latin America
2.6
5.5
+2.9
North America
7.9
4.9
-3.0
USA
8.0
3.9
-4.1
Oceania
5.4
11.1
+5.8Slide48
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are
scarce
goods
Notably
in the poorest countries, decreasing biocapacities lead to conflicts over resources such as water or land
8
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n7/full/nclimate1236.html A map of previous conflicts (1980-2005) attributed to environmental issues, their sizes and causesSlide49
http://
www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/print/volume-26/issue-2/regional-spotlight-europe/how-sustainable-is-europe-s-water-footprint.html
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Increasing globalisation of trade is further aggravating water scarcity in the Global South (problem of virtual water)
9Slide50
http://blogs.worldwatch.org/nourishingtheplanet/tag/fao/page/2/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
One result of resource scarcity: The world market prices
for
food have been
massively on the rebound since the global crisis …
10http://dgff.unctad.org/chapter4/4.2.html Slide51
http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/land-grabs-update-more-hectares-than-we-thought-and-definitely-bad-for-development
/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
… the appetite of the global speculation business for
arable land in the southern hemisphere is constantly growing
11Slide52
“We are running this planetlike a business in liquidation”
Herman E. Daly
Climate Justice
The widening gap between cause and effectSlide53
Climate Justice
:
The widening gap between cause and effect
3 out of 9 ‘planetary boundaries’ have been crossed, including climate change, the biggest challenge
facing
the world today
1
http://
www.unesco.org/new/wsd2012
Source
: modified from
Rockström
et al. (2009
).
Researchers recently identified nine planetary boundaries, which collectively delineate a safe operating space for humanity.
Three
have already been crossed. T
his concept has the potential to develop into a useful tool for policymakers.Slide54
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
Global warming is already a reality today, and if no measures are taken, temperatures will rise sharply
by end of this century …
2
http://
www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf
Slide55
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… with unforeseeable consequences for the
world’s ecosystems and human life
3
http://
www.challengetochange.org/climate.htm
Slide56
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
Limiting global temperature increase is a matter
of
survival –
political
leaders and societies are called upon to act immediately
4
http://
www.economist.com/node/17572735
Slide57
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
The vulnerability to climate change is most pronounced
in regions where people live in poverty …
5
http://ingienous.com/?page_id=11379
Slide58
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… and these are not the regions
where greenhouse gas emissions mostly occur
6
http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?
tag=co2
Carbon
Emission
2009Slide59
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
Energy production and consumption is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, so too are some types of land use
7
http://greenblog.typepad.com/d41e/global
/
http://
www.energyland.emsd.gov.hk/en/energy/environment/greenhouse.html
Share of GHGs Emissions per type of GHG
2004
Share of GHGs Emissions per sector
2004Slide60
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
While
sustainable
farming and
forestry
are global tasks, the
impetus
for an energy turnaround must come from the global North
8
http://
dgff.unctad.org/chapter4/4.4.html
Slide61
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
The costs of transforming energy systems and mitigating climate change effects are enormous - a multiple of development aid …
9
http://
www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/520a3b1cea2d4.pdf
Slide62
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… nevertheless, transformative development towards
an economy of life is no utopia …
10
http://oliveventures.com.sg/act/2011/02/16/paradigm-shiftour-human-money-economy-is-a-subset-of-the-earths-larger-bioeconomy
/
Slide63
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… because welfare and development do not necessarily
require an increasing ecological footprint per capita
11
http://studentreporter.org/2013/10/ecological-footprint-thinking-inside-the-green-box
/
Slide64
Global
GovernanceWhat the global community is doing
“If you focus on results you will never changeif you focus on change you will get results”
Jack DixonSlide65
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The history of global development initiatives is relatively young
- it really got under way with the Earth Summit of 1992 …
1
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
INITIATIVES IN THE 1980s
1986
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
INITIATIVES TODAYSlide66
Global Governance: What the global community
is
doing
… previously, the
power
of definition
was
in the hands of the World Bank and IMF, today there is a
multitude of players in global agenda setting
2
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
PLAYERS IN THE 1980s
Washington-Consensus
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
PLAYERS TODAYSlide67
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
Under the aegis of the UN and OECD, four
key international initiatives
have been launched in the past two decades
3
Earth summits
What development paradigm?
High-level forums
What partnership
for development?
Social Summits
H
ow to fight
poverty
?
Dialogue on Peace and Statebuilding
How to address
fragility?Slide68
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The Rio Earth Summit resulted in a series of international agreements and conventions aimed at promoting a sustainable world
4
Agenda 21
http://
sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/Agenda21.pdf
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
(Kyoto Protocol 2005)
http://
unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
https://
unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
UN Forest Principles
http://
www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126-3annex3.htm
Convention on Biological
D
iversity
http://www.cbd.int/convention
/
Rio Declaration
http://
www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163
Slide69
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The breakthrough came with the turn of the millennium: For the first
time, the global community adopted 8 common development goals
5
dialogue4change.org
http://
www.unfoundation.org/blog/coming-together.html
Slide70
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The 8 development goals have only
been partially met,
the least progress has been achieved in countries affected by conflict and fragility
6
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/0,,
contentMDK:23109716~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html
Slide71
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
As part of a global consultation, the global community is currently
reflecting on a new development agenda beyond 2015 …
7
http://
www.brookings.edu/blogs/education-plus-development/posts/2013/02/15-post-2015-development-agenda-anderson
Slide72
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
.. based on the idea of agreeing on a series of ‘sustainable development
goals’ that are valid for all countries including the Global North
8
+
=Slide73
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
Mandated by the United Nations, a group of «eminent persons»
has recently presented initial recommendations and proposals
9
http://
www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/high-level-panel-post-2015-malaria-consortium
http://www.lattitude.org.uk/2013/10/beyond-2015-leaving-no-one-behind
/
Slide74
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
Market-driven environment protection policies have failed,
inter alia,
because of a considerable fall in emissions trading
prices
…
10
http://energydemocracyinitiative.org/emissions-up-carbon-prices-down-what-does-it-mean-for-unions
/
Slide75
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
… which makes it all the more important that the sustainable development goals will replace or revitalize the stalled Kyoto negotiations
11
http://www.rtcc.org/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/