Daniel P Eleuterio Office of Naval Research Jessie Carman NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research Fred Toepfer NOAA National Weather Service Dave McCarren Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command ID: 620462
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The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) Project
Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval ResearchJessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere ResearchFred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather ServiceDave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography CommandUS THORPEX Legacy Planning MeetingJune 5, 2014Slide2
National ESPC OverviewAn interagency collaboration, initiated between Navy, Air
Force and NOAA and expanded to DoE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The original project combined global weather models in an operational synoptic multi-model ensemble under NUOPC.Seeks improved communication and synergy, for global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to short-term climate variability timescales. Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.A national research agenda that will improve prediction across scales from days to decades.
Cooperative
focus
projects to assess predictability of global scale high impact environmental conditions
to inform S&T, R&D, and transition to operations.
Towards an
multi-model ensemble
based
air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability
http://espc.oar.noaa.gov/Slide3
Hail, Tornadoes, Tropical Storms & HurricanesWinter Storms, IceExtreme Heat and ColdDroughts and Floods
Climate AdaptationSea Level RiseCommerce and NavigationAviation TransportationFood SecurityAir and Water QualityEcosystem HealthPrivate Sector and National Security
National Weather Enterprise
Public Safety and Economic Well-being of Nation
Public-Private Partnership
Challenges to Achieve a Weather-Ready Nation
Home Field
EmphasisSlide4
Defense Department Challenges – A Global Force for Good4We provide worldwide forecasts to support
DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
Home Field Advantage… at the Away GamesSlide5
From Sources of Predictability at Weather to Seasonal/ Climate Variability Timescales to Operational Prediction through Global Coupled Model EnsemblesSlide6
NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal ForecastingThis study will identify: Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing predictive skill; Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast models;Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice coupled models at S2S timescales (a few days to several weeks);
Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic products; andInfrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and communication, and visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.Slide7
Partnerships
:ESPCNOPPHFIPNMMEUSGCRPUSCLIVARNUOPCWWRP/WCRPNational ESPCNeed: Seamless Full Earth System(or at least “lightly seamed”)Slide8
Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled systemDefine implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements, cycling setup including DACoupled Model Development Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure
“Operational Implementation Design” has details on data volumes, resources required, and operational job distributions “In press” as Naval Research Laboratory Memorandum Report 7320--13-9498 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs.php search under author MetzgerSlide9
NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Earth System Prediction R2O (draft)
SchedulingProject Information and Highlights
Scope:
Improved Model Guidance: Coupled NWP to 30 days
Expand critical weather forecasting research to operations (R2O)
Accelerate development and implementation of improved global weather & ocean prediction models
Improve data assimilation techniquesImprove
software architecture and system
engineering
Promote hurricane and other high impact forecast models that meet societal requirementsEstimated
Benefits:Address growing service demands
Increased accuracy and lead time for high impact weather forecasts More reliable probabilistic forecasts
Effectively mitigate economic disruption from hurricanes and other predictable “strong signal” weather phenomena
Milestone
Date
Initiate Effort: Charter approved
02/2014
Planning Teams Organized
03/2014
Develop Spend Plan and Research Priorities
06/2014
Develop Next Generation Global Prediction System Implementation Plan
09/2014
Award External Grants
3/2015
Implement NEMS Physics Interoperability Interface
9/2015
Demonstrate Coupled NGGPS
9/2015
Issues/Risks
Increased WCOSS Developmental Computing Capacity Needed
Probabilistic operational skill at longer lead times needs to be better quantified and communicated.Slide10
Air Force Post-Processed Ensemble Products
Probability of SevereFighter Index of Thermal Stress (FITS) Probability of Surface Level Reduced Visibility Unlike Navy and NOAA, USAF does not develop their own global model nor share their forecast fields due to their licensing agreement. Instead they provide joint NUOPC Ensemble processing. Probability ofSurface wind > 25, 35, 50 ktsLower and upper level moderate and severe turbulenceIcing at 500, 700, 850, 925 mb
Surface viz < 1, 3, 5 nm
Surface temp < 32, > 90
Many
Precip products and others
All provided to NCEP NOMADS servers as operational fields, 6 hrs time steps out to 10 day leads
for all fields
.
Plans for longer lead times and higher resolution in 2014/15. Slide11
Inter-agency
Atmospheric Weather
and
Coupled Climate
R2O Ensembles
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
(
HFIP:
1-7 days)
Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA),
Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity
Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources
National
Unified Operational Prediction Capability
(NAEFS/ NUOPC
:
5-16
days
)
Improving medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific
events.
Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency missions and resources
Planned extension to 30 days (poss. 45 days)
Increasing resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015
Incorporating Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)
National Multi-model Ensemble
(NMME: 3-9 months)
Multi-model Climate Ensembles:
more accurate
than any one model
Distributed Production: leverages
multi-agency and
international computer infrastructure and
investments (US, Canada)
Currently a Phase II research project through FY14 for higher
resolution output suitable for sub-seasonal updates (Weeks 3-12).
Collaborative Programs Across Scales:
Multi-model ensemblesSlide12
HFIP Ensemble
DRAFT Interagency National ESPC Fielding Plan (2018)
Boundary conditions for TC Track & Intensity, TC genesis, Hi Res Littoral air/ocean operations, EM/EO/NBC prediction
Drought/Flood, Heat Wave/Freeze
P
rediction, Storm Surge/Inundation/Erosion, Beach
W
arnings, Safety/Emergency/Public Health Operations, Ship & Aircraft Routing
. . .
NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE/WW-3
NAVGEM Ensemble
NUOPC/NAEFS Ensemble
Climate
Fcst
System (CFSv2/3)
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
Strategic Planning, Environmental Stress Instability, Arctic Sea Lanes, Ship and Land Transportation Infrastructure Management, Agriculture/Fisheries Planning & Ecosystem Management, Water Resource Management, Energy Sector Planning . .
.
Static Climatology/Reanalysis
based on past environment
“Climatology Products”
Navy and DoD Capability
NOAA Capability
National Global Prediction Needs
CFS-R, HURDAT, etc.
DOD Applications of NOAA managed Seasonal Ensemble Prediction
NUOPC Ensemble
Forecast Lead
8-14 Days
Forecast Lead
15-30 Days
Forecast Lead
31 – 90 Days
Forecast Lead
3 – 18 Months
Annual to Decadal
Forecast Lead
0-7 Days
GFS, HYCOM, WW-3
GEFS Ensemble
Multi-Model Ensemble
TC-COAMPS
Others
HWRF
GFDL
GFSSlide13
The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap(Federal/Operational, Credible, Reliable, Calibrated, and Probabilistic)When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example
. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be? Slide14
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