Adaptive management in a volatile and complex world Dr Jean Boulton Visiting Senior Research Fellow DSPS University of Bath Visiting Fellow Cranfield School of Management Director Claremont Management Consultants Ltd ID: 615996
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Embracing ComplexityAdaptive management in a volatile and complex world
Dr Jean Boulton
Visiting Senior Research Fellow, DSPS, University of Bath
Visiting Fellow,
Cranfield
School of Management
Director, Claremont Management Consultants Ltd
April 2017
jboulton@claremont-mc.co.uk
www.embracingcomplexity.com
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Agenda Complexity theory:
what is it
how does it fit with/emerge from other scientific worldviews
How does it fit with our experienceHave we thought like this before?So what:Understanding the contextThe pragmatic middle groundWorking with the incommensurableProject managementOrganisation designLiving life..
2Slide3
Part 13
What
is
complexity theory and why is it important?Slide4
The wrong science?Adopting ‘hard science’ as relevant to the social world
(a) Traditional mechanical science - Newton
(b) Theory of gases and liquids
(thermodynamics)
Things work like a machine -
predictable, controllable, standardisable
Things move towards equilibrium,
stay there. Entropy increases.
French enlightenment
Theories of management
Cause, measurement, evidence
Classical theories of economics
‘Free market’ ideologies
4
‘this pure theory of economics is a science which resembles
the
physico
-mathematical sciences in every respect’. (
Walras
, 1874)Slide5
Why it matters what science we adopt
Standardise
Best practice
Plan
Cause and effect
Economies of scale
Reversible change
But UK 23
rd
out of 24 numeracy,
24
th
out of 24 literacy (OECD, 2013)
Current 50-60 year-olds score better than school children
‘Trust the market; freedom of choice. Self-organisation
But no ‘trickle down’; increasing inequality; concentration of power; the powerful go
unregulated/unaccountable.
Income inequality – UK 28
th
out of 34
OECD countries. (OECD,2013)
UK bottom of 37 countries in relation
to difference in healthy eating between
rich and poor children (
unicef
, 2016)
The machine view
The ‘free market’ view
(equilibrium thermodynamics,
natural law)
Complexity – not too tight, not too loose
5Slide6
Why it matters what science we adopt
Standardise
Best practice
Plan
Cause and effect
Economies of scale
Reversible change
But UK 23
rd
out of 24 numeracy,
24
th
out of 24 literacy (OECD, 2013)
Current 50-60 year-olds score better than school children
‘Trust the market; freedom of choice. Self-organisation
But no ‘trickle down’; increasing inequality; concentration of power; the powerful go
unregulated/unaccountable.
Income inequality – UK 28
th
out of 34
OECD countries. (OECD,2013)
UK bottom of 37 countries in relation
to difference in healthy eating between
rich and poor children (
unicef
, 2016)
The machine view
The ‘free market’ view
(equilibrium thermodynamics,
natural law)
Complexity – not too tight, not too loose
6
UK most highly rated hospices out of 80 countries
(2015, Quality of Death Index)Slide7
(c) in contrast... evolutionary science
Path-dependence..
the future builds on
what is already there..
Emergence: the future cannot be known in advance
Things are systemic, interdependent.
What sustains is the
system /ecology
best adapted to the local situation at the time.
Change emerges locally and spreads (or not).
7
Local detail matters;
each situation is contextually-specific
Cooperation as much as competitionSlide8
(d) complexity science – how physics explains evolutionThe science of open systems
Prigogine gave an answer to Bergson’s question in1947
.
He showed that for open systems, new order/patterns can emergeThis was the start of the science of complexity science.
Prigogine was intrigued by the question:
‘Why does life ‘mount the incline that
matter descends’
(
i.e. why don’t physics and biology agree)
(
Bergson 1907
)
8Slide9
(d) Complexity: the science of open systems
Systemic:
everything is
connectedContext specific: each situation is unique, detail matters Path dependent:
history shapes the present
Episodic: change goes in ‘fits and starts’
Limits to knowledge
:
emergence
at
‘tipping points’
Complexity theory is how physics explains evolution –
-the importance of
variation
A theory of change as
dynamic
and
locally-emerging
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Its ontology is
:Slide10
The nub of complexity thinking – a dance between patterns and events
Patterns
– connectedness - emergences
(institutions, culture, routines, laws, political norms, supply-demand curves, systems, archetypes)Disturbances to patterns(events, chance, deliberate action, variations, shocks, shifting alliances)
The path-dependent future
systemic
;
context-specific;
path-dependent;
episodic;
emergent
;
Open
Nonlinear
Variation
Dynamic
10
Simplicity on the other side of complexity?
Systems thinking?Slide11
Upon those that step into the same rivers different and different waters flow…Theyscatter and …gather…come together…and flow away…approach and depart
Heraclitus
Have we thought like this before?
Dao de JingWithin the rhythms of life, the swinging gateway opens and novelty emerges spontaneously to revitalise the
world…..whatever is most enduring is ultimately overtaken
in the ceaseless transformation of things
Flow (becoming), emergent patterns, path dependency,
episodic change
Emptiness
‘
there is no self-defining discrete reality to cause or effect. Forms or feelings are devoid
of inherent existence; it is only on the basis of aggregation of subtle elements that forms
exist; form can only be understood in relational terms to their constitutive elements.’.
Dalai Lama explaining
Milarepa
Buddhist text, April 2008
The law of karma spells out that everything has its
implications, everything makes a difference..
Every moment we are presented with the possibility
of changing the future
Lama Surya Das – Awakening the Buddha within
11
tSlide12
The connections between scientific worldviews – back to the future
The Pre-modern worldview
flow, becoming, patterned yet dynamicinterconnected..Empirically-derivedThe Modern worldview - the machinepredictable, stable, separable, objective, cause-and-effect. Ascendance of reason and theory-driven
The Post-modern scientific worldview
contingent on the detail, local, patterned yet dynamic, becomingModelling and empirical
complexity
indeterminism
evolution
phenomenology
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The core of complexity (ii) 13
Incommensurability...
There are no easy answers...
Working with one pole leads to one-sided solutions...
Freedom versus EqualityEfficiency versus Adaptability
Standardisation versus Context-specificityShort-term versus Long-term Slide14
What complexity means to me... 14
If the future is not entirely knowable (albeit not random)
then the end cannot justify the means.
Each action contributes towards the system, adds to the shaping of the future...So what we do and our values and intentions is what enters ‘the system’and shapes the future..Seed the system with good ingredients....Slide15
What does complexity mean for me as an individual?15
Thinking more widely and broadly (including about past and future)
Embracing diversity – working appreciatively and to share power and build trust
Mindfulness; the Devil is in the detail..Humility and yet feeling empowered – it may be me that tips the balance; experiment
Authenticity; what you say and what you do each enter the system
He who would do good to another must do it in Minute Particulars:
General Good is the plea of the scoundrel,
hypocrite, and flatterer,
For Art and Science cannot exist but in minutely
organized Particulars
.
William Blake
Slide16
Conclusion We’ve adopted the wrong science to understand the social world.
Complexity science provides a better
‘fit’ with/description of/worldview
for the social and natural world. It emphasises the middle ground – between overly managing/specifying and laissez-faire, and reminds us that most issues of significance have no easy answers.If we ‘Embrace Complexity’ we will do a better job of managing our lives/organisations/the planet than if we hope it will go away...
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