September 03, 2013 | Westborough, MA - PowerPoint Presentation

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September 03, 2013 | Westborough, MA - PPT Presentation

Reliability Committee amp Markets Committee Meeting 3 Considerations in the Design of Capacity Zones Al McBride MANAGER AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING Presentation Objectives Introduce the ISO proposal at a high level ID: 815875

capability zone load import zone capability import load capacity transmission 000 resources zones tsa planning fca 1400 process transfer

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Slide1

September 03, 2013 | Westborough, MA

Reliability Committee & Markets Committee Meeting #3

Considerations in the Design of Capacity Zones

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide2

Presentation Objectives

Introduce the ISO proposal at a high level

Briefly review the Stakeholder discussions so farDiscuss examples of the capacity zone models in place in PJM and NYDiscuss the objective criteria (trigger) for the creation of zones (with examples)

Discuss export constrained zonesDiscuss the proposed process for the analysis of transfer limits and interfaces in the Regional System Planning (RSP) processDescribe what is proposed for FCA-9 and FCA-10 (and beyond)

Discuss next steps

Slide3

High Level Summary of the ISO Proposal

For FCA-9 capacity zones would be created by implementing an objective criteria (automatic trigger) using the existing 8 energy zones as the starting point

The 8 energy load zones will serve as an approximation of the real transmission operating boundariesEnergy load zones that do not exceed the automatic trigger will be merged into the Rest-of-Pool Capacity zone

The objective criteria for the automatic creation of zones would be based on the TSA-like analysis of the energy zone along with the security constrained import analysis

For FCA-10 and beyond, incorporate the analysis of appropriate zonal boundaries into the annual process used to calculate transfer limits for RSP and NERC statutory requirements

The automatic trigger would continue to define whether a zone is modeled

Slide4

Stakeholder Discussions

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide5

Summary/Highlights

At the July 7, 2013 RC meeting we discussed

The requirements of the FERC orderThe constraints observed and expected on the New England systemThe methodologies in place to calculate requirements

Considerations in the design of capacity zonesThe timeline challenges associated with making changes for FCA-9

At the July 22 and 23, 2013 Summer RC meeting we discussed

The possibility of making some changes in time for FCA-9

On July 30, 2013, the ISO submitted the compliance timeline to FERC

http://www.iso-ne.com/regulatory/ferc/filings/2013/jul/er12-953-002_7-30-13_fcm_zone_compliance_filing.pdf

Slide6

Summary/Highlights, continued

At the August 19, 2013 RC meeting we discussedThe capacity zone creation methodologies in place in PJM and New York

The Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) that has been performed in New England for the 8 Energy ZonesThe transmission transfer capability analysis processes in place in New England

Possible ways forward

Slide7

Stakeholder Process

As defined by FERC

FERC has required the ISO to consider the following during the Stakeholder Process: “…(1)

the appropriate level of zonal modeling going forward; (2) the appropriate rules to govern intra- and inter-zonal transactions; and (3) whether

objective criteria by which zones may automatically be created

in response to rejected delist bids, generation retirements or other changes in system conditions would be appropriate in New England, or if not, why not.”

Docket No. ER12-953-002: Order Issued May 31, 2013

Slide8

Subsequent Filing

As defined by FERC

FERC has required the ISO to make an additional filing at a later time to address: “…how it has addressed these items in its stakeholder process, and it must: (i)

develop and file with the Commission revisions to the ISO-NE tariff that articulate appropriate objective criteria to revise the number and boundaries of capacity zones automatically as the relevant conditions change

(ii) file with the Commission

an explanation as to why such criteria are unnecessary

.”

Docket No. ER12-953-002: Order Issued May 31, 2013

Slide9

Capacity Zone Formation Methodologies in place in PJM and New York

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide10

PJM Methodology Summary

A starting list of Locational

Deliverability Areas (LDAs) are defined in the PJM Reliability Assurance Agreement (RAA)The RAA lists a number of zones, most of which align with the footprints of the member Transmission Owning utilities or aggregations thereof

Any changes to the list of LDAs are those areas that have a limited ability to import capacity due to physical limitations of the transmission system, voltage limitations or stability limitations Identified by the load deliverability analyses conducted pursuant to the Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) Protocol

Slide11

PJM Methodology Summary, continued

A new LDA is created if such new LDA is projected to have a capacity emergency transfer limit (CETL) less than 1.15 times* the capacity emergency transfer objective (CETO) of such area, or if warranted by other reliability concerns consistent with the Reliability Principles and Standards

A FERC filing is made to amend the LDA list

*This trigger describes how capacity zones are automatically created in PJM

Slide12

Cleveland LDAAn Example of How a New Zone is Created in PJM

Slide13

Cleveland LDA, continued

An Example of How a New Zone is Created in PJM

As part of the 2012 RTEP process, PJM analyzed the need to model an LDA in the Cleveland areaA number of recent generator deactivation notices and transmission reinforcements in the Cleveland area drove the need in 2012 to consider establishing a new LDA

Transmission facilities in the Cleveland metropolitan area have been historically constrained by voltage and stability limitations as transfers into the area have risen over timeThese limitations have diminished the ability of Load Serving Entities (LSEs) to import power into the area

Slide14

Cleveland LDA, continued

An Example of How a New Zone is Created in PJM

The peak load inside the interface is approximately 5,000 MWPreviously, Cleveland was part of the larger ATSI (formerly FirstEnergy) zone

The CETL/CETO ratio was actually found to exceed 1.15However, given that the “Cleveland Reactive Operational Interface” is an electrical area which PJM dispatchers already monitor to ensure reliability under real-time conditions, PJM selected it to become a new “Cleveland LDA”

The addition of the new zone was presented in the RTEP planning process and then filed at FERC

Approved by the FERC, effective January 4, 2013, the new LDA has been used for the first time in RTEP process studies in 2013 and for RPM activities in May 2013

Slide15

NY Methodology Summary

NYISO’s aligns the process for creating a new capacity zone with the triennial ICAP demand curve reset process

NYISO begins the new capacity zone process with a New Capacity Zone Study (NCZ Study)If the NCZ Study identifies a Highway deliverability constraint (Highway constraint), NYISO will identify the boundary of a proposed new capacity zone

A locational minimum ICAP requirement is determined, followed by an analysis of a demand curve for the new capacity zone and submission to the Commission of tariff revisions to establish the new capacity zone

Slide16

Lower Hudson Valley Zone

An Example of How a New Zone is Created in NY

In the recently completed NCZ study, NYISO identified the UPNY/SENY (Upstate New York/South East New York – located south of Albany) as a Highway deliverability constrainedThe NCZ study was discussed in the NY planning process

NYISO filed with FERC the creation of a new downstate zone which merges Zones G, H, I & JThis leaves New York with three zonesRest of State (approximately 13,000 MW)

“Lower Hudson Valley” (approximately 16,700 MW)

Long Island (Zone K, approximately 6,000 MW)

FERC approved the new zonal configuration in Docket No. ER13-1380-000

Slide17

Automatic triggers for the modeling/creation of zones

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide18

The Attributes of a Zone

The load in a zone is met by:the addition of:

Resources in the Zone + Import Capability

Simplified Example ZoneIn this case the load is exactly met

Load = 9,000 MW

Resources = 8,000 MW

Import Capability = 1,000 MW

Slide19

Calculating Requirements

There are two ways to think about calculating requirements:

Resources: What amount of Resources are required for a given Import Capability?Or,

Import Capability: What amount of Import Capability is required for a given set of Resources?

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 9,000 MW

Resources = ? MW

Import Capability = ? MW

Slide20

Which Import Capability?

It is required under the planning criteria to consider N-1-1 eventsThis discussion will focus on the N-1-1 Import Capability

This will be equivalent to the line-line calculations described in Transmission Security Assessments (TSA)

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 9,000 MW

Resources = ? MW

N-1-1

Import Capability = ? MW

Slide21

Calculating a Transmission Security Requirement

A TSA Requirement is calculated as follows (simplified):

Assume resource unavailability of 5%

TSA Requirement = 5,263 MW

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 9,000 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

4,000 MW

(Load

–

Import Limit)

1 -

(resource unavailability factor)

TSA Requirement

(9,000

–

4,000)

1 -

(0.05)

TSA Requirement

Slide22

Designing a Resource-Based Trigger

TSA Requirement = 5,263 MWUsing a 15% automatic trigger for modeling zones:

If there is more than 1.15*5,263 MW = 6,052 MW of Existing Resources in the zone,

then the zone would not be modeledNote: If there is more than 5,263 MW remaining in auction, the zone would not bind in the auction

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 9,000 MW

TSA = 5,263 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

4,000 MW

Slide23

A Resource-Based Trigger Considering Potential Retirements

TSA Requirement = 5,263 MWThe largest resource in the zone is 1,000 MW

Using a potential retirement automatic trigger for modeling zones:If there is more than 5,263 + 1,000 =

6,263 MW of Existing Resources in the zone, then the zone would not be modeled

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 9,000 MW

TSA = 5,263 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

4,000 MW

The largest

Resource is

1,000 MW

Slide24

A “Higher Of” Resource-Based Trigger

TSA Requirement = 5,263 MWIf the Existing Capacity of the Resources in the zone is greater than the higher of the [TSA*1.15] or the [

TSA+the largest resource], then the zone would not be modeled

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 9,000 MW

TSA = 5,263 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

4,000 MW

The largest

Resource is

1,000 MW

Slide25

Designing an Import Limit-Based Trigger

(This approximates the PJM method)

What is the required Import Limit if the load is 7,000 MW and the Resources total 5,000 MWThe unavailability factor of the Resources should be considered (assume 5%)

Available Resources = 4,750 MW“Required” N-1-1 Import Capability = 2,250 MWIf the import capability is greater than 1.15*2,250 =

2,587 MW

, then the zone would not be modeled

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 7,000 MW

Resources = 5,000 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

? MW

Slide26

An Import-Based Trigger Considering Potential Retirements

“Required” Import Capability = 2,250 MW

The largest resource in the zone is 1,000 MWIf the import capability is greater than 2,250 + 1,000 = 3,250 MW

, then the zone would not be modeled

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 7,000 MW

Resources = 5,000 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

? MW

The largest

Resource is

1,000 MW

Slide27

A “Higher Of” Import Limit-Based Trigger

“Required” Import Capability = 2,250 MW

If the import capability is greater than [1.15*Required Import Capability] or [Required Import Capability + the largest resource], then the zone would not be modeled

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 7,000 MW

Resources = 5,000 MW

N-1-1 Import Capability =

? MW

The largest

Resource is

1,000 MW

Slide28

What if the Import Capability of a Zone has not been calculated?

A zone could be evaluated based on its load and resources

If there is enough Existing Capacity in the zone (considering no import capability) to meet the load, then the zone would not be modeledIf some import capability is needed, N-1-1 power flow analysis can be used to confirm that the load can be served

This analysis would consider the unavailability of one or more resources

Simplified Example Zone

Load

Resources

Slide29

Treatment of Export Constrained Zones

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide30

Modeling Export Constrained Zones

What is the required Export Capability if the load is 2,000 MW and the Resources total 4,000 MW

The unavailability factor of the Resources should be considered (assume 5%)Available Resources = 3,800 MW

The Export Capability needs to be 3,800 – 2,000 = 1,800 MW to avoid locked-in capacityIf the export capability is greater than 1.15*1,800 = 2,070 MW, then the zone would not be modeled

Simplified Example Zone

Load = 2,000 MW

Resources = 4,000 MW

Export Capability = ? MW

Slide31

Export Constrained Zones

Maine will continue to be evaluated for export constraintNorth of Orrington South will not be added as a capacity zone

There is no reliability benefit or need to do thisFor FCA-9, the smallest building block is the Load Zone

Slide32

Modeling SEMA/RI

SEMA/RI (Southeast Massachusetts/Rhode Island) has been identified as export constrained for many years

The only interface currently available to System Planning that could be associated with modeling the SEMA/RI zones is the SEMA/RI Export Limit3,000 MW through 2017

3,400 MW after 2017

SEMA/RI

SEMA

Slide33

Modeling SEMA/RI, continued

When Resource unavailability is considered, SEMA/RI does not appear to be export constrained at peak load

The ISO does not propose to consider evaluating SEMA-RI as export constrained in FCA-9

SEMA/RI – FCA-5 Values

90/10 Load = 6,235 MW

Resources = 9,360 MW

SEMA

Slide34

Annual Planning process:

Proposed Alignments, and enhancements

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide35

FAC-013-2

NERC Standard FAC-013-2 ensures that Planning Coordinators have a methodology for, and perform an annual assessment to identify

potential future Transmission System weaknesses and limiting facilities that could impact the Bulk Electric System’s ability to reliably transfer energy

in the Near-Term Transmission Planning Horizon

In New England, when identifying potential future Transmission System weaknesses, consideration will be given

rejected delist bids, generation retirements or other changes in system conditions

Near-Term Transmission Planning Horizon = the transmission planning period that covers years one through five.

Slide36

Alignment of Planning Processes

NERC FAC-013-2 activities have been brought in alignment withFERC 715 reporting of various aspects the transmission system and the transmission planning process

The calculation of future transmission limits needed for various activities and documented in the Regional System Plan

The following slide contains the most recent presentation of transfer capabilities that were provided to the Power Supply Planning Committee at their June 3, 2013 meeting

Slide37

RSP13 Base Interface Limits

Notes are discussed in Appendix 1 of this presentation

Single-Value, Summer

Peak,

Non-Firm

, Transmission Interface Limits for Use in

Subarea Transportation Models

Interface

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

New Brunswick-New England

700

Orrington South Export

1200

1325

Surowiec South

1150

1500

Maine-New Hampshire

1600

1900

North-South

2700

East-West

2800

3500

West-East

1000

2200

Boston Import (N-1)

4900

4850

Boston Import (

N-1-1)

3700

4175

SEMA Export

No Limit

Limit

SEMA/RI Export

3000

3400

Connecticut Import (N-1)

3050

2800

2950

Connecticut Import (

N-1-1)

1850

1600

1750

Connecticut Import (N-1)

3200

Norwalk / Stamford

1650

HQ-NE (Highgate)

200

HQ-NE (Phase

II)

1400

Cross-Sound Cable (CSC) (In)

Cross-Sound Cable (CSC) (Out)

346

NY-NE Summer

1400

NY-NE Winter

1875

NE-NY Summer

1200

NE-NY Winter

1400

Slide38

Assessment of New Interfaces

NERC FAC-013-2 activities will be further enhanced to incorporate the examination of future capacity zones and associated transfer capabilities

The transfer capability assessment will include the review of whether additional interfaces would be required in the case of submitted or potential resource retirements

Slide39

Attachment K

Attachment K of the ISO New England Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) describes the Regional System Planning (RSP) Process in New England

According to Attachment K, the RSP shall, among other things:describe, in a consolidated manner, the assessment of the PTF system needs, the results of such assessments, and the projected improvements;

provide the projected annual and peak demands for electric energy for a five-to ten-year horizon, the needs for resources over this period and how such resources are expected to be provided; specify the physical characteristics of the physical solutions that can meet the needs defined in the Needs Assessments and include information on market responses that can address them; and

provide sufficient information to allow Market Participants to assess the quantity, general locations, operating characteristics and required availability criteria of the type of incremental supply or demand-side resources, or merchant transmission projects, that would satisfy the identified needs or that may serve to modify, offset or defer proposed regulated transmission upgrades.

Slide40

Attachment K, continued

According to Attachment K, one of the triggers for a Needs Assessment is:

constraints or available transfer capability limitations that are identified possibly as a result of generation additions or retirements, evaluation of load forecasts or proposals for the addition of transmission facilities in the New England Control AreaIn addition Needs Assessments are conducted for Rejected Non-Price Retirement Requests and De-List Bids

On-going Needs Assessments reflect Resources with Non-Price Retirement Requests or Permanent De-List Bids as unavailable for reliabilityNew Needs Assessments may be initiated

Slide41

Proposed addition to Attachment K

The annual Transfer Capability Assessment, conducted pursuant to NERC Standard FAC-013-2, and the identification of any new interfaces will be a part of the annual RSP process

The annual assessment will include the consideration of the addition of new interfaces that would result from submitted or potential retirements of resources

Slide42

Requirements Calculations

A new interface and associated zone will be included in the preparation for a given FCA if the transfer capability analysis is complete in time for the requirement calculation process for the FCA

Zones that do not trigger the automatic criteria are merged into the Rest-of-Pool zoneThe requirements calculations for the new capacity zone will follow the normal stakeholder review process used for FCA requirements calculations

The LSR and MCL requirements calculations for import- and export-constrained zones will be unchangedThe higher of the Transmission Security Assessment and the Local Resource Adequacy will be used to set LSR

Slide43

FERC Filing

The zonal requirement of any new zone, along with the associated transfer capability will be included in the pre-FCA FERC filings

Slide44

Vermont ZoneExample of How a New Zone Could be Evaluated in the Planning Process

In response to repeated requests to de-list generation in Vermont, the ISO had begun the process of defining an interface and calculating a transfer capability into Vermont

The ISO will evaluate the modeling of a Vermont Zone in FCA-9

In response to a request to retire generation Will be discussed in the RSP process in 2014

Vermont Zone

Slide45

SEMA/RIExample of How a New Zone Could be Evaluated in the Planning Process

SEMA/RI is a good example of why the load zone boundaries are not necessarily useful interfaces for modeling capacity zones

Some are perhaps counter-productive

For FCA-10 and beyond, the planning process can evaluate the addition of a more appropriate interface to manage the issues that could drive the need for a capacity zone

SEMA/RI – FCA-5 Values

90/10 Load = 6,235 MW

Resources = 9,360 MW

SEMA

Slide46

Other Issues

Slide47

Minimum Zone Size

The zones modeled in PJM and New York are relatively large (many 1,000s MW)Many zones are merged together in the absence of triggering the objective criteria

ISO New England proposes to remain focused on the more significant load serving constraintsInterregional Operating Limits (IROLs)

Rule of thumb minimum IROL size is 1,200 MW of transfer capability or served load

Slide48

The Role of Market Resource Alternatives

Market Resource Alternatives (MRAs – also known as Non-Transmission Alternatives or NTAs) are, by definition, a consideration in the long-term transmission planning space

If NTAs become committed through the Forward Capacity Market or appropriate contract, they would be reflected in the zonal modeling process

Slide49

Listing of the iso

proposal

Slide50

ISO Proposal for The Management of Capacity Zones

In Market Rule 1, Section 12 add automatic trigger(s) for the modeling and creation of zones

For FCA-9 capacity zones would be created by implementing the objective criteria (automatic trigger) using the existing 8 energy zones as the starting point

The 8 energy zones will serve as an approximation of the real transmission operating boundaries

Energy

zones

that do not exceed the automatic trigger will be collapsed into the Rest-of-Pool Capacity zone

The objective criteria for the automatic creation of zones would be based on the TSA-like analysis of the energy zone along with the security constrained import analysis

For FCA-10 and beyond, incorporate the analysis of appropriate zonal boundaries into the annual process used to calculate transfer limits for RSP and NERC statutory requirements

The automatic trigger would continue to define whether the zone would be created

Slide51

ISO Proposal for The Management of Capacity Zones, continued

In conducting compliance transfer capability analysis pursuant to FAC-013-2, include the review of whether new interfaces should be added based on submitted or potential retirements

Add to Attachment K the presentation of the annual transfer capability assessments as part of the annual RSP process

Once a zone is modeled in the FCA, it will persist in the subsequent reconfiguration auctions and bilateral transaction windows for that Capacity Commitment Period

No change to bilateral trading rules

Slide52

Steps to implementation

Slide53

Steps to Completion

Changes to Market Rule 1 Section 12

Reliability CommitteeChanges to Planning Procedure 10

Reliability CommitteeChanges to Attachment K?Transmission CommitteeChanges to Market Rule 1 Section 13?

Markets Committee

FERC Filing

Slide54

Schedule for Implementation

Implementation for FCA #9:

Dates

Discussion Topics

Jul - Sep 2013

Discuss current methodologies and explore new methodologies for determining zones and requirements while

minimally

changing other aspects of the FCM

Sep - Nov 2013

Finalize principles for zone creation

Nov 2013 - Jan 2014

Define zones and finalize zonal requirements; begin Tariff language changes

RC (with MC invitation) Action

Jan - Feb 2014

NPC Action

Early March 2014

FERC Filing of Tariff Changes

Late March 2014

FERC Order*

Late May 2014

* FERC Order to be received after opening of the Show of Interest Window but before New Capacity Qualification Deadline and De-list Bid Deadline

Slide55

Appendix 1:

Notes to the RSP13 Base interface limits

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide56

RSP13 Base Interface Limits

Limits are for the Summer period, except where noted to be winter

The limits do not include possible simultaneous impacts, and should not be considered as “firm” (the bases for these limits are subject to more detailed review in the future)

For the years within the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) horizon (2017 [Forward Capacity Auction 8] and sooner), only certified transmission upgrades are included when identifying transfer limits

For the years beyond the FCM horizon (2018 and later), proposed plan approved transmission upgrades are included according to their expected in-service dates

Slide57

RSP13 Base Interface Limits, continued

Relevant in-service dates

Maine Power Reliability Program – 2015

NEEWS Interstate Reliability Program – 12/2015 (However, not all portions of this project have been certified to be in service by 2017)

The Boston import capabilities change in 2014 as a result of the combination of the retirement of Salem Harbor and the inclusion of the advanced NEMA/Boston upgrades

The effect of the addition of the Footprint generation project on the Boston import capability will be evaluated at a future date

NEEWS Greater Springfield Reliability Program – 2013

With the certification of the new 345 kV Lake Road-Card line, the Lake Road generating facility will be modeled in the Connecticut zone for Capacity Commitment Period 8 (2017)

The 345 kV Lake Road-Card line was certified to be in-service by 2016. It is under review whether Lake Road will be modeled in the Connecticut zone for Capacity Commitment Period 7 (2016) .

Slide58

RSP13 Base Interface Limits, continued

The electrical limit of the New Brunswick-New England (NB-NE) Tie is 1,000 MW

When adjusted for the ability to deliver capacity to the greater New England Control area, the NB-NE transfer capability is 700 MW

This is because of downstream constraints; in particular Orrington South

The Hydro-Quebec Phase II interconnection is a DC tie with equipment ratings of 2,000 MW. Due to the need to protect for the loss of this line at full import level in the PJM and NY Control Areas’ systems, ISO-NE has assumed its transfer capability for capacity and reliability calculation purposes to be 1,400 MW

This assumption is based on the results of loss-of-source analyses conducted by PJM and NY

Slide59

RSP13 Base Interface Limits, continued

Import capability on the Cross Sound Cable (CSC) is dependent on the level of local generation

New York interface limits

These are without CSC and with the Northport Norwalk Cable at 0 MW flow

Simultaneously importing into NE and SWCT or CT can lower the NY-NE capability (very rough decrease = 200 MW)

Simultaneously exporting to NY and importing to SWCT or CT can lower the NE-NY capability (very rough decrease = 700 MW)

Slide60

Appendix 2:

TSA Calculations for FCA-5

Al McBride

MANAGER, AREA TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Slide61

FCA-5 TSA Requirements

Review the assumptions, methodology and Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) requirements for the 2014-2015 Capacity Commitment Period (FCA-5)in New England

The methodology and assumptions used to determine the 2014/15 TSA requirements were developed in accordance with section III.12.2.1.2. of Market Rule 1, and section 6 of ISO Planning Procedure 10 – Planning Procedure to Support the Forward Capacity Market

Slide62

FCA-5 TSA Requirements - Model

The calculation of the FCA-5 local capacity requirements, including the TSA requirements, relied on the latest available data

Load forecast, resource data and resource availability were presented to the Power Supply Planning Committee on 12/06/2010; details are available at:http://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/relblty_comm/pwrsuppln_comm/mtrls/2010/dec62010/index.html

The transmission topology that was certified for FCA-5 was introduced at the 09/20/10 Reliability Committee; details are available at:

http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/othrmkts_data/fcm/qual/models/index.html

Slide63

Methodology

The TSA determines the requirement of an area (in the case of FCA-5 the energy load zone) to meet its load through internal generation and import capability

It stems from ISO Planning Procedure 3 - Reliability Standards for the New England Area Bulk Power Supply System key transmission security requirementsIdentify all resources and serve area load under N-1 and N-1-1 conditions

Perform review under reasonably stressed conditions (“With due allowance for generator maintenance and forced outages”)It is performed via a series of transmission load flow studies

In performing the analysis, static transmission interface transfer limits may be established as a reasonable representation of the transmission system’s capability to serve sub-area load with available existing resources

Results may be presented in the form of a deterministic operable capacity analysis

Slide64

Methodology, continued

When presented in the form of a deterministic operable capacity analysis, the TSA compares need with available resources

Needs includeLoad + Loss of Generator (“Line-Gen” scenario), or

Load + Loss of import capability (going from an N-1 import capability to an N-1-1 import capability; “Line-Line” scenario)Resources includeN-1 Import capability

Regular generation

Operating actions (fast start units, demand response…)

Resource unavailability is applied by de-rating capacity

Example

Subarea

90/10

Load

8 300

Reserves (Largest

unit or loss

of import capability

)

1 200

Subarea Transmission Security

Need

9 500

Existing Resources

10 000

Assumed

Unavailable

Capacity

500

Subarea N-1 Import Capability

2 500

Subarea Available

Resources

12 000

Subarea Transmission

Security

Margin

2 500

Slide65

Methodology, continued

For each of the potential import constrained Capacity Zones, the TSA requirement (resource requirement that will be compared to the Local Resource Adequacy Requirement) is the amount of internal resources (generators and Demand Resources) needed in the zone, so that the Line-Line or Line-Gen requirements can be met after proper accounting for resource unavailability

The TSA requirement can be approximated by using the following formula

(Need – Import Limit)

1 - ( Assumed Unavailable Capacity / Existing Resources)

TSA Requirement

Slide66

Methodology, continued

Example:

Subarea

90/10

Load

8 300

Reserves (Largest

unit or loss

of import capability

)

1 200

Subarea Transmission Security

Need

9 500

Existing Resources

10 000

Assumed

Unavailable

Capacity

500

Subarea N-1 Import Capability

2 500

Subarea Available

Resources

12 000

Subarea Transmission

Security

Margin

2 500

(

9,500

–

2,500

)

1 - (500/

10,000

)

TSA Requirement

7,368

Slide67

Methodology, continued

The application of the TSA requirement calculation using energy load zones is an approximation, due to:

The use of static transmission interface transfer limitsThe reliance on specific scenarios (“Line-Gen”) and (“Line-Line”)

The nature of the calculationThe term [Assumed Unavailable Capacity / Existing Resource] in the above equation depends on the actual proportion of regular generation, peaking generation, intermittent resources, Real-Time Emergency Generation (RT-EG), active non-RTEG Demand Resources (DR) and passive DR

The fact that the energy load zones boundaries do not exactly correspond to the real transmission operating boundaries

Real transmission operating boundaries are based on the limiting constraints that define a geographic areas (within which resources have a very high probability of substitutability) import capability and the ability of the resources within the zone to alleviate those constraints

The TSA requirement should be calculated based on an area’s real transmission operating boundaries. However, the TSA calculation using energy load zones could serve as an approximation for what the requirement would be for the geographic area that contains an individual or combined energy load zone.

Slide68

FCA-5 TSA Requirements and Related Analysis, cont.

TSA requirements were calculated for both a “Line-Gen” and “Line-Line” scenario

As a worst-case sensitivity analysis, TSA requirements were also calculated for the New Hampshire, Rhode Island, SEMASS, WCMASS and Vermont Load Zones; a worst-case assumption of 0 MW

of N-1 and N-1-1 import transfer capability was initially assumed for these Load Zones

As further sensitivity, a Capacity Zone determination was performed

It was assumed that in every Load Zone, the Local Sourcing Requirement would be set by the TSA requirement

The determination was based on the methodology described in section III.12.4 of Market Rule 1

Slide69

FCA-5 TSA Requirements – Line-Gen

All values in MW

Slide70

FCA-5 TSA Requirements – Line-Line

All values in MW

Slide71

FCA-5 TSA Requirements - Results

The Load Zone sensitivity analysis showed that

Regardless of their N-1 or N-1-1 import capability, there was no need to form separate capacity zones for New Hampshire or SEMASS, because the revised amount of capacity to be compared to the export-adjusted LSR could not be lower than the export-adjusted LSR

Under the worst-case assumption where the N-1 or N-1-1 import capability into Rhode Island, WCMASS and Vermont is below the required import capability shown below, the revised amount of capacity to be compared to the export –adjusted LSR can be less than the export-adjusted LSR; however, these Load Zones’ interfaces are such that they include many 345kV, 230kV or 115kV ties; therefore, there is still no need to form separate capacity zones for Rhode Island, WCMASS and Vermont

Load Zone

Required Import Capability (MW)

Load Zone Interface Characteristics

Rhode

Island

N-1: 38 MW

345kV and 8 115kV paths into the load pocket

WCMASS

N-1: 509 MW

N-1-1: 194 MW

8 345kV,

2 230kV and 15 115kV paths into the load pocket