Increasing energy flexibility John Scott j ohnscottchilternpowercom Economic and Policy Forum Meeting Very briefly My background Electricity Distribution amp Transmission planning and operations ID: 626393
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21st May 2014Smart Grids:Increasing energy flexibilityJohn Scottjohn.scott@chilternpower.com
Economic and Policy Forum MeetingSlide2
Very brieflyMy background:Electricity Distribution & Transmission planning and operationsManager of the UK National Control CentreEngineering Director of National Grid Company in UKTechnical Director for Ofgem, the GB Energy RegulatorDirector, Network Innovation for KEMA Consulting Ltd
Independent Consultant, Chiltern Power LimitedIET: Institution of Engineering & Technology – Energy Policy PanelSlide3
What characterises today’s power grid in GB ?Slide4
GB Electricity TransmissionCommodity type Market
Customers (homes)
~28m
Generation Capacity
76
GW
Peak Demand
~60 GW
Annual
electricity consumption
~ 300TWh
Regulated NetworksTransmission Max Voltage 400 kV1 System Operator + 3 Trans. OwnersDistribution Max Voltage132kV14 Licenced Distribution areas (6 companies)Slide5
GB Electricity Distribution Network Owners 20136 Owners but 14 Licensed DNOsElectricity distribution carries electricity from the transmission system and delivers it to consumers.
Typically, it includes 132kV, 33kV and 11kV power lines, substations and
transformers, and low-voltage (230/415 V)
distribution wiring.In GB it does not include meters.Slide6
TODAY’S GRID CHARACTERISTICS
BUSINESS AS USUAL
Home
Local
Commercial
Regional
National
Largely passive,
domestic users
Few intelligent
appliances
LESS DATA, LESS INTELLIGENCE, LESS CONTROL
Good sensors
Real time data
Advanced
processing
2 way data
Sparse sensors
Limited data
Limited processing
Limited two-way data
Sensors
hr
data
1
/
2
Retail processing
Limited one-way
meter reading
No sensors
Fit and forget
No electronic
data transfer
Manually read
dumb meters
No electronic
data transfer
One-way power
Two-way
power flows
Transmission
and Systems
Regional
distribution
Commercial
Properties
Local
distribution
Homes
Transmission is a well-instrumented active network
© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2011Slide7
It’s all well established, so what’s changing, why are ‘smarter grids’ on the agenda?Note - Google offers 3 million references for ‘smart grid’(and 35 million for ‘smart meter’) Slide8
The great centralised grids of today…
are largely
‘
one-way
’
systems
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
TRANSMISSION
NETWORKCENTRALISEDGENERATIONDISTRIBUTIONNETWORKDISTRIBUTIONNETWORKRESIDENTIALDEMANDRESIDENTIALDEMANDRESIDENTIALDEMANDOne-way power flowsRemote generationLittle communicationsLimited automationA mainly passive networkDelivering electricity to passive consumers
The traditional paradigm:
“Generate what is Consumed”
acknowledgement
Generation must always match Demand: there is no storage in the networksSlide9
The great centralised grids of today… the challenges ahead
acknowledgement
Off-shore and on-shore
wind generation
Distributed Generation: central & dispersed
Ageing networks
EV charging
PV small and large scale
Heat Pumps & Air Con
E
nergy
losses
Q
uality
of supply & resilience
Customer energy
efficiency & smart meters
New hydro & marine
New nuclear with larger single loss risk
Demands AND sources
Network
loading & voltage limits
Less- predictable loading
Less- predictable generation
More complex system balancing
Two-way power
flows & raised FLs
Loss of demand diversity
Network stable operation
Lower inertia power system
Larger single loss
Larger single loss: 1320 (Size B) increased to 1800 for new nuclearSlide10
The great centralised grids of today… the solution opportunities ahead
Smart Vehicle Charging
Home automation
Plus
Hearts & Minds…..
But now, within a
new paradigm:
“Consume what is Generated”
acknowledgement
Power Electronics
Active Distribution NetworksReal time ratingsCondition Monitoring‘DR’ Demand ResponseSmart metering & displaysElectricity StorageSynthetic InertiaNew materialsAggregation & VPPDC embedded & interconnectionDemands AND sourcesNetwork loading & voltage limitsLess- predictable loading
Less- predictable generation
More complex system balancing
Two-way power
flows & raised FLs
Loss of demand diversity
Network stable operation
Lower inertia power system
Larger single loss
Generation must match DemandSlide11
Demands AND sourcesNetwork loading & voltage limits
Less- predictable loading
Less- predictable generation
More complex system balancing
Two-way power
flows & raised FLs
Loss of demand diversity
Network stable operation
Lower inertia power system
Larger single loss
A new architecture for the power system
Smart Vehicle ChargingHome automationPlus Hearts & Minds…..Power ElectronicsActive Distribution NetworksReal time ratingsCondition Monitoring‘DR’ Demand ResponseSmart metering & displaysElectricity StorageSynthetic InertiaNew materialsAggregation & VPPDC embedded & interconnectionNetworks for sustainability & security.… the smart grids of tomorrow
acknowledgement
Customer Engagement
The Smart Grid Concept
Bi-directional power and information flowsSlide12
How might these flexible ‘smart grids’ interact with the Built Environment? Slide13
Network Solutions - all voltage levelsA Wide Range of Potential Solutions: Built Environment linkages are highlighted here
The Smart Grid Concept
Bi-directional power and information flows
D-FACTS, STATCOMS, power electronic
controllers for voltage management
Solid State tap
changers (
inc
11kV/LV)
Interconnection of D-STATCOMs to create a controllable DC network overlay
DC networks
in homes and buildings, grid networks with multi-terminal systemsSuperconducting and other designs of fault current limitersSoft Open Point power electronics at LVIntelligent switching logic and adaptive protection and controlPower electronics for synthetic inertiaSolid State transformersSmart EV charging for homes, streets, car parks, intelligently co-ordinatedEV charging: contact-less & mobileCyber-secure communications and interfacesWaveform cleaning and phase balancingElectricity storage: interfaces, home and community scalePotential for hydrogen production and storageMicrogrids for storms resilience with intentional islanding utilising DERsPhasor Management Units (PMUs) andWide Area Monitoring, Control and protection (WAMPACs)Forecasting, modelling and visualisation for planning /operational timescalesState Estimation for network observabilityActive Network Management (ANM)Home/Building Energy Management Systems, Smart Meters & DisplaysCustom Private NetworksHybrid technologies including hydrogen, heat and gasSmart Communities, Smart Cities and the Internet of ThingsSlide14
However, there is another pressing agenda for the power grid…Slide15
Adequacy of GB generation capacity?Closure of non-FGD coal stationsNew nuclear build still not confirmedRenewables are incentivisedEMR not yet completeBarrage / Lagoon proposalsDe-mothballing?New CCGT??Shale gas???
National Grid contingency actions
(i.e. WITHOUT RENEWABLES)Slide16
Renewable power sources?Renewables are growing in total capacitySome 20GW peakIn 2013 renewables delivered 14% of GB energy useToday, dependent on the wind and sunImportance of forecasting, interconnectors, geographic spread and, in the future, demand flexibility and storage.Slide17
Will Smart Grids and new flexibility really happen, do the costs/benefits stack up?Slide18
Developments in GB:The Smart Grid ForumShaping a shared Stakeholder ViewThe DECC/Ofgem Smart Grid Forum was established in April 2011DECC – the UK Department of Energy & Climate ChangeOfgem
– the GB electricity and gas regulator
Identify future challenges
for electricity networks;
Guide the actions
of Government/Regulator;
Identify actions to
facilitate the deployment
of smart grids
;
Facilitate
the exchange of information and knowledge;Help stakeholders better understand future developments; Track smart grid initiatives in Europe and elsewhere.Slide19
Smart Grid Forum Workstream 3:Evaluating Conventional and Innovative solutions
To develop and populate a model that demonstrates the value of smart grid innovative solutions in distribution networks to address a range of low carbon scenarios
The model is generic - it does not know network connectivity or calculate load flows or voltages
I
t does reflect the characteristics of the DNOs networks across GB
It does examine alternative investment strategies
Many modelling parameters are user-definableSlide20
The Headline modelling results20Smarter strategies appear most cost effectiveSummary of Present Value of gross totex of distribution network investment (2012-2050) Slide21
21‘No Clustering’ could reduce costs by 60%
2
nd
generation EVs could increase costs by 50%
A 5% change in the reinforcement threshold could increase costs by 40%
Some Sensitivity CasesSlide22
But….Slide23
The IET’s warning flag…… and its challenges to the power sectorSlide24
The IET Position Statement
The December 2013 Position Statement summarises ground-breaking work
A classic problem of an ‘invisible’ risk because it grows incrementally
There is evidence already of changing GB system behaviours - hence The IET’s call for actionThis is not a panic message, but solutions will require sustained effort and fresh thinking
Indeed, a ‘shock to the system’ after 80yrs of grid development
The work here is at a scoping level, not determining solutions.
The Power Network Joint Vision (PNJV) Position Statement and Report are available at
www.theiet.orgSlide25
The GB view: Material Changes Ahead
The graphic summarises the rising complexity anticipated for our power networks
The scale of change is no longer incremental and will move the power network significantly beyond the bounds of its original Systems Engineering
Best practice in other sectors ensures a ‘Whole Systems’ approach through the role of a
System Architect
But no party has this role in today’s industrySlide26
What is Ofgem doing to incentivise network innovation?Answer: more than any regulator world-wide!Slide27
The Low Carbon Networks Fund A new regulatory incentive to stimulate smart grid
deployment
Tier 1 funding
of £16m per year
is allocated
between all DNOs (according to customer numbers) on an annual basis. This allocation will allow each DNO, with minimum bureaucracy, to undertake several small scale projects. Customers will fund a maximum of
90%
of the cost of projects.
£500m over 5
years (2010-2015)
for bold network innovation projects
Tier 2 funding a significant amount comprising £64m p.a. to encourage a small number of ‘flagship’ projects. Funds will be held centrally, with DNOs competing for funding. After 2015, these incentives will become the NIA Network Innovation Allowance, and NIC Network Innovation Competition Slide28
European ComparatorsSmart Grid Projects 2012
Excellent messages for GB’s positioning in Europe
A strong platform for innovators, exports and growth?Slide29
A Practical Example of smart grid innovationSlide30
An example: UKPN ‘Flexible Plug & Play’Ackg’t: Sotiris Georgiopoulos, UKPN(33kV network)Slide31
An example:UKPN ‘Flexible Plug & Play’Ackg’t: Sotiris Georgiopoulos, UKPNAn Active Network Management system (ANM)Slide32Slide33
Where might all this be leading?Is this in fact pointing to bigger changes than smart and flexible electricity….Slide34
The Direction of Travel?
Smart Community
Smart Grids
Smart Transport
Smart Customers
Smart Buildings
E-Health Care
Energy StorageSlide35
The Direction of Travel?Communications Everywhere
Intelligent Processing
Big Data Analytics
Peer to Peer
“The Internet of Things”
Sensors Everywhere
Communities & Collaboration
…Digital
Cities
…Intelligent Cities
…Smarter Planet (IBM)
…Digital Urbanism (CISCO)…Sustainable Cities (Siemens)Producer/ConsumersProsumersSlide36
The Consequences?Connecting Everything with EverybodyMassive cost savings, new services and convenience
Plus some new risks and opportunities for misuse….
“The Internet of Things”
Nearly Free Goods and Services:
”Close to Zero Marginal Costs”
If so, o
ur
traditional economic model (competition by price) can no longer be dominant
‘Nearly Free’ is a
lready
with us:
Non-profits, publishing, communications, information, 3D-printing, on-line higher education (MOOCs), Apps for smart phones, car sharing, spare room sharing…..renewable energyA New Economy is ahead:A hybrid of Collaborative Commons + Capitalism.What impact for Business?12Communications EverywhereIntelligent ProcessingBig Data AnalyticsPeer to PeerSensors EverywhereCommunities & CollaborationProducer/ConsumersProsumersSlide37
The Characteristics“The Internet of Things”Communications Everywhere
Intelligent Processing
Big Data Analytics
Peer to Peer
Sensors Everywhere
Communities & Collaboration
Producer/Consumers
Prosumers
SHARING ON A MASSIVE SCALE
ENERGY
LOGISTICS
COMMUNICATIONSMORE ABOUT ACCESS THAN OWNERSHIPBUILDING SOCIAL CAPITALENTREPRENEURIAL OPPORTUNITIESSUSTAINABLE QUALITY OF LIFEOPEN & DISTRIBUTED BUSINESSMORE ‘QUALITY of LIFE’, LESS ABOUT ‘GDP’‘NET NEUTRALITY’OPEN, DISTRIBUTED, COLLABORATIVEACCESS FOR ANYONE, ANYWHERE, ANYTIMESlide38
A growing body of work…Watch his lecture from the RSA in London: http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-past-events/2014/a-world-beyond-markets
Delong & Summers, The New Economy
Univ
of California, Berkeley, 2001
http
://
ideas.repec.org
/a/
fip
/
fedkpr
/y2001p11-43.htmlSlide39
These changes may take decades, but they are fundamental.Q – do the construction, engineering, and technology sectors have insights to offer?If so, they must ‘reserve their rights to play’.But, do they currently have sufficient influence?Slide40
Some key messages to summariseSlide41
In SummaryThe landscape for power grids is set to change:Disruptive challenges are ahead: smart solutions will be needed
1
Whole-systems thinking is needed: a System Architect for the grid?
3
Consumer & business engagement will be key to the changes
2
We can expect
Near-Zero Marginal Prices: changes ahead for our economy
4
… real impacts for
business and wider society.Slide42
Smart Grids:Increasing energy flexibilityThank you for your attentionDiscussionJohn Scott, Director, Chiltern Power Ltd.www.chilternpower.com+44 (0) 7771 975 623Slide43
Spare MaterialSlide44
Is today’s framework creaking already?Fundamental design changes require a whole-systems view: but no one has accountability as the System ArchitectRising inter-dependencies and complexity: electricity, heat, gas, comms
, big data, transport, and consumers at scale
The skills deficit: future support for customers, clients and supply chains
The consultation burden from DECC and Ofgem (now 1/week from DECC, 4/week from Ofgem)
Short termism
: electoral cycle times & the Senior Civil Service rotational system
Is there sufficient strategic capability?Slide45
Hannah Nixon (Joint Chair) Ofgem Sandy Sheard (Joint Chair) DECCMike Calviou National Grid Dave Openshaw UKPN (DNO)Steve Johnson
ENWL (DNO) Phil Jones CE Electric (DNO)
Mark Mathieson SSE (DNO & TO)
Chris Harris RWE nPower Ashley
Pocock
EDF (Supplier)
Tim
Rotheray
CHP Association
John Scott Chiltern PowerJudith Ward Sustainability First Jim Sutherland Scottish Power (DNO)Robert Symons WPD (DNO)An open selection process for membership was run by the Government/Regulator jointlyMembership List (by invitation)at April 2014Yselkla Farmer BEAMA Chris Welby Good Energy John Mulcahy British Gas Gavin Jones Electralink Duncan Botting PB Power Steve Unger Ofcom Nick Jenkins Cardiff University Ben Davison OLEV (EVs)Sarah Bell DSR Coalition