Alkiviadis Tromaras, Efthymis - PowerPoint Presentation

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Alkiviadis Tromaras, Efthymis Papadopoulos, Aggelos Aggelakakis Centre for Research and Technology Hellas/Hellenic Institute of TransportICTTE Belgrade 27th October 2018

IDENTIFYING THE KEY TRENDS REGARDING THE TRANSPORT CONCEPTS OF THE FUTURE

IntroductionAim of the work- MethodologyIdentified transport conceptsConclusions2Contents

The EU transport sector plays significant role in ensuring sustainable economic growth. 10 million jobs representing 4.6% GDPBetter quality of lifeMovement of goods, people, services Major challenges include:traffic congestion, oil dependency, greenhouse gas emissions, age

ing infrastructure, growing competition from other transport marketsTo overcome current and future challenges innovative transport solutions Research and

innovation (R&I

)

support

The EU transport system is in transitional period

New disruptive transport concepts and technologies are emerging

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1. Introduction

2. Methodology AimIdentify key trends regarding the transport concepts of the futureIndicate how people and goods will be transported in the future based on literaturePassengerFreight

Desk research on :Forward looking research transport research projects -Mobility4EU,FUTRE,RACE 2050, OPTIMISM, METRIC, IKNOWTransport industry forward looking reports/ technology-oriented websites and private/initiatives

Literature gap for precise definitionDefinition: a concept or idea that presents how mobility takes place between two places, referring to the movement of passengers or freight. It may also describe the vehicle and the way that transportation or mobility takes place2. Methodology- Definition

Automation – autonomous vehicles (AVs): This concept suggests that mobility will be automated, including any type of autonomous vehicle/vessel Electrification – electric vehicles (EVs): This concept suggests a shift from conventional fuels towards electricity, including any type of electrified vehicle/vessel Mobility as a Service (MaaS): MaaS is already a well know concept focusing on shifting from ownership of personal vehicles towards services that offer mobility as a product, such as ride-sharing, car-sharing, ride-hailingHyperloop: This concept refers to mobility using underground high-speed rail

2. Methodology- examples

Slow Travel / Slow LogisticsSuperfast Ground and Underground TransportationPersonal Rapid Transit (PRT)Magnetic Mobility, Magnetic LevitationPersonal Air Transportation, "Flying Cars", Flying Taxis"Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, IntermodalityAutomationNoiseless TransportMega AircraftsDelivery DronesElectrification

3. Identified transport concepts

Vertical Transportation

Small Vehicles Developed Fit-For-Urban-Purpose

Expandable Cars

Smart Use of Travel Time

Shared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility, Mobility as a Service (

MaaS

)

Private Car Ownership, Luxury Vehicles

Seamless Security Checks, Innovative Check - In Processes

Capsules Transported by Carrier Aircraft

Blue Modal Shift

Floating Delivery hubs

Bus Rapid Transit Corridors

Co-Modality

Freight Consolidation Hubs, Freight Distribution Centres

Urban Cross-Modal Logistics

Personal Mobility Devices

High-Speed Rail

“Pragmatic Cars" and "Fun Cars"

Urban Cable Cars

Parcels into the Receivers' Car Trunk

Delivery Boxes

Crowd Delivery

Quite Night Urban Deliveries

Freight Shuttle Systems

Smart, Dynamic and Interactive Highways

7 most cited concepts were extracted for passenger and freight respectivelySome concepts were relevant to both passenger/freight sectors i.e.:Electrification, automation, MaaS/FaaSIdentified time horizon of implementation based on literature:Short (2020-2025) Medium (2025-2030) Long term (2030-2035+)

3. Identified transport concepts

Passenger

Transport - applicable Transport Concepts

Total Number of Citations

Road

Aviation

Rail

Waterborne

Timeline for Implementation

Automation –

Passenger

Transport (

autonomous

cars,

aircrafts

, trains,

vessels

)

34

+

+

+

+

Medium termShared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility, MaaS29+---

Medium term

Electrification – Passenger Transport (electric cars, trains, aircrafts, vessels)

26

++++Medium termSeamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality20++++Long termPersonal Air Transportation, "Flying Cars", “Flying Taxis”15++--Medium termSmart Use of Travel Time13+---Medium termHigh-Speed Rail for Passenger Transport9--+-Medium termSuperfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Hyperloops9--+-Long term

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.

Future transport concepts-

Passenger

Freight Transport - applicable Transport Concepts

Total Number of Citations

Road

Aviation

Rail

Waterborne

Pipeline

Timeline for Implementation

Shared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility,

MaaS

,

FaaS

,

LaaS

29

+

+

+

+

N/A

Medium term

Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality

20+++

+

N/A

Long term

Automation – Freight Transport (autonomous trucks, trains, vessels)18++++N/AMedium termElectrification – Freight Transport (electric trucks, trains, aircrafts, vessels)16++-+N/AMedium termDelivery Drones10-+--N/AShort termSuperfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Cargo Tubes, Underground Freight Pipelines9+-+-+Long termFreight Consolidation Hubs, Freight Distribution Centres6++++N/AMedium term

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.

Future transport concepts-freight

Automation across all transport sectorsRoad 2025-2035 fully autonomous cars and highway platooningAviation (automation already exists in avionics systems and traffic management)Rail- 50% of metro lines to be fully automated by 2020-2025.Trials of autonomous trains already in actionWaterborne- 2020-2025 Yara Birkeland vesselSvitzer Hermod vessel MUNIN project

Shared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, TaaS, FaaS, LaaSOne of the most cited conceptsWhim – Helsinki, UbiGo

– Gothenburg,

Qixxit

– Germany,

Moovel

– Germany, Beeline – Singapore, SMILE – Vienna, Bridj – Boston Kansas City, Washington, Communauto

/Bixi – Canada

Dominant transport concepts

(1/6)

Electrification- includes electric, fuel cell vehicles and electrification of vehicle systemsOne of the most commonly referred conceptRoad: 9-20 million vehicles by 2020, 40-70 mill by 2025Aviation: Electric propulsion envisaged for small aircrafts up to 100 seats. Fuel cells for auxiliariesRail: Electricity already used. Fuel cell pilots by Alstom, SiemensWaterborne: 20+ projects using hydrogen fuel cells have been carried out since early 2000 2,500 ships in the world are powered by electric propulsion using diesel electric, hybrid systems or battery

Dominant transport concepts (2/6)

Seamless transport chainsseamless logisticsseamless national and international travel for passengersseamless transport chains as a result of MaaSestablishment of multimodal centres and intermodal mega-hubsintegration of all transport modes Personal air transportationFlying cars, taxis- by 2030CityAirbus, Vahana, PopUp,

Ehang 184, Volocopter 2X, Lilium and Uber ElevateDominant transport concepts (3/6)

Delivery drones:Amazon, Google, Alibaba, UPS, DHL and Wal-Mart have already started experimenting with such systems Urban usage or for remote areas70.000 drones will deliver about 200 million lightweight parcels across Europe in 2035- SESARAdoption before 2030Smart use of travel timeResult of autonomous drivingsurfing the web/car-based media consumption, working/multitasking, studying, sleeping/relaxing, watching movies, online shoppingDominant transport concepts (4/6)

High speed railHigh-speed rail as an attractive alternative to aviation, especially for medium and even long-distance passenger travelHigh-speed rail as a cheaper, greener and more sustainable transport alternativeNeed for a complete European high-speed rail networkHyperloopVirgin Hyperloop One, that aims to provide Dubai by 2021 TransPod that is focused on building a Toronto-Montreal hyperloop. Dominant transport concepts (5/6)

Freight consolidation hubs/distribution centresPotential use at port, airport, market, rail inland hub centric or at the outskirts of citiesShifting the distribution of freight to inner city using smaller electric vehicles or during night time using autonomous vehiclesAutomation will be requiredSuperfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Cargo Tubes, Underground Freight PipelinesCargoCap Cargo sous terrain (CST)Dominant transport concepts (6/6)

Researched how passengers and goods will be transported in the future based on literature reviewDefined the term transport conceptsAutomation across all transport sectorsShared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, TaaS, FaaS, LaaSElectrificationSeamless transport chains

Personal air transportationDelivery dronesHigh speed railFreight consolidation hubs/distribution centresSuperfast Ground and Underground Transportation,

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.

Conclusions