What can CREATE contribute to SUMPs? - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

What can CREATE contribute to SUMPs?

Peter JonesScientific Coordinator

SUMPS Co-ordinating Group Meeting, Brussels, 7

th

and 8

th

June, 2017Slide2

The Proposition

The SUMP is an important policy tool that encourages cities to look well beyond providing for private motor vehicles and instead to promote sustainable urban mobilityBut it is now recognised by leading cities that transport systems play a much wider role in delivering city visions

Although SUMP guidance alludes to this, it seems that it is not yet well embedded in SUMP practice

CREATE can assist in this, in several waysSlide3

What is CREATE? ‘Transport Policy Development Process’

Planning for

motor vehicles

: road building, parking

Planning for

people movement

: public transport, walking & cycling; car restraint

Planning for

city life

: transport as ‘place’, remove obtrusive transport infrastructure, support other objectives (e.g. health) Slide4

Car Driver Modal Shares over TimeSlide5

Observed Stages of Policy Development

Stage 1: vehicles

- promoting car ownership and car use

1A

: colonisation of carriageways and footways by motorised vehicles

1B

: investment in urban motorways and multi-storey car parksStage 2

: person movement – encouraging efficiency and sustainability2A: investment in high-capacity public transport systems, for station-to-station flows2B: emphasis on ‘seamless’ travel, inclusive, door-to-door journeys and encouraging walking and cycling; reallocation of road space and restraint of car trafficStage 3: city life – encouraging place making and liveability3A: ‘place-making’ in transport infrastructure (railway stations, urban streets); remove obtrusive transport infrastructure3B: heavily involvement of transport in achieving non-transport policies (e.g. health, regeneration)Slide6

Focus of Most Existing SUMPs

Stage 1

:

vehicles

- promoting car ownership and car use

1A

: colonisation of carriageways and footways by motorised vehicles

1B: investment in urban motorways and multi-storey car parksStage 2: person movement – encouraging efficiency and sustainability2A: investment in high-capacity public transport systems, for station-to-station flows

2B: emphasis on ‘seamless’ travel, inclusive, door-to-door journeys and encouraging walking and cycling; reallocation of road space and restraint of car trafficStage 3: city life – encouraging place making and liveability3A: ‘place-making’ in transport infrastructure (railway stations, urban streets); remove obtrusive transport infrastructure3B: heavily involvement of transport in achieving non-transport policies (e.g. health, regeneration)Slide7

Dubrovnik SUMP conference

30/03/17Slide8

CREATE’s Contribution

Articulating what a Stage 3 city looks likeIncluding forecasting and appraisal implications

Advising cities on how to compress the journey from Stage 1 to Stage 3

Setting out ideas for future city development – a possible Stage 4?Slide9

‘Stage 3’ Characteristics

Focus on place-making and liveability New types of objectives, indicators and appraisalRe-assessment of the transport planning process: from ‘predict and provide’ to ‘vision and validate’Slide10

Stage 3A: Motorway Removal and Place Making

Portland Seoul

Stage 1 Stage 3ASlide11

Stage 3: Street Redesign

1Slide12

Stage 3: TfL’s London-wide Street ClassificationSlide13

Indicators by Stage

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Average network speeds

Day-to-day

variability

Vehicle congestion

Car

parking availabilityRoad traffic accidentsNoiseAir pollutionPT frequency and reliabilityAccess to bus stops & stations

Safety and security

Seamless travel

PT

m

odal split

Walking/cycling modal shares

Door-to-door

travel times by mode

Time use

in transport modes

Intensity of street activities

Time spent in local area

Value of high quality public space

Health of the population

Social interaction

Social equity and inclusion

Community severanceSlide14

New indicator: severance caused by different types of roads

14

UK EPSRC Research Project

Provisional unpublished resultsSlide15

15

Severance index vs. willingness to pay

Provisional unpublished resultsSlide16

‘Predict and Provide’

Can be traced back to 1960s Urban Land Use/ Transportation Studies:

Forecast likely growth in car ownership and use

Demonstrate inability of existing road networks to cope with this increased demand

Propose major road building to avoid extreme congestion and gridlock (maybe with demand management)

Iterate plans until major problems addressed (or budget/political limits reached)Slide17

Proposal: ‘Vision and Validation’ - 1

Develop comprehensive future city/country vision, with strong stakeholder engagement: desired living patterns and achievement of a set of agreed outcomesIdentify what transport can contribute to delivering the vision: major/minor investments - plus (more flexible) pricing and regulatory measures

Ensure co-ordinated with other sector strategies (e.g. health, education)Slide18

Proposal: ‘Vision and Validation’ - 2

Determine under what future range of conditions and behavioural responses this package of policies would provide good value for money – stress testThen see how the programme can be tweaked to increase robustness, by covering more of the fan of possibilities – ‘Real Options Analysis’

Iterate with appraisal – but multi-sector, as many benefits from transport will accrue to other sectors, and actions by other sectors affect travel demandSlide19

‘P & P’ vs ‘V & V’

Present

Future

2

. Develop set of schemes which meet some parts of fan of possible demands, plus other objectives

1

. Forecasts, with uncertainty

‘P & P’

1. Develop vision for future living‘V & V’

2. Generate ‘fan of possibilities’3. Stress test to see over what range of futures valid, and seek to expand robustness

4.

Develop feasible trajectory from ‘then’ to ‘now’ by

backcasingSlide20

And more... A Possible ‘Stage 4’?

Many cities are experiencing rapid population growth, and fear that all transport networks will become overloaded – ‘Stage 3’ is not enoughCREATE is exploring a possible ‘Stage 4’

Maybe with a stronger emphasis on optimising infrastructure use through cross-sector planning (e.g. retail, health)

‘systems of ‘systems’ approaches

Or will AVs take us back to Stage 1?!!Slide21

A progression to Stage 4?

Stage 4?Slide22

On-going Development

of Stages 1 and 2

Stage 4?

AVs

MaaSSlide23

Potential impact of AVs – do we repeat history?

AV-dominated cities??

Stage 4?



…OR?Slide24

Alternative city trajectories

Source: analysis by Roger Teoh, MSc Dissertation Imperial/UCL 2016Slide25

Thank you !

peter.jones@ucl.ac.uk

http://www.create-mobility.eu