Paper 2: Emergence of Islamic Finance - PowerPoint Presentation

1. Paper 2: Emergence of Islamic FinanceAbdullah ShahidPhD Candidate in SociologyCornell University, Ithaca, NYEmail: ais58@cornell.edu(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 1**The author is conducting further analyses for all the papers in this presentation. Full papers will be available for distribution in Fall 2021. The author is grateful to Prof David Strang, Prof Diane Burton, and Prof Richard Swedberg for their guidance in this project. The author also acknowledges the sincere research assistance of the following Cornell undergraduate students: Annie Fu, Tanmay Bansal, Christopher Elliott, and Shreya Subramanian.

2. ContextIslam is 1,400 years old. But ‘Islamic finance’, ‘Islamic economics’ as distinct practice/field of study emerged in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Traces of proto-Islamic financial organizations in Egypt and Malaysia.Organized effort to bring back the glory of Islam and its practices occurred through the formation of OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) in 1969. The formation of Islamic Development Bank in 1975 followed from the OIC. 2(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

3. Characteristics of Islamic FinanceDONTsProhibition of interestNo speculation or ‘high uncertainty’ activitiesNo association with ‘Haram’ (Islamically prohibited) consumption and production DOs: Instruments, contracts, exchanges…Linked to real goods Based on profit-loss / risk sharing / partnershipFor with ‘Halal’ (legal, encouraged) consumption and production No coercion; mutual reciprocity of benefits; adequate knowledge; no fraud 3(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

4. Islamic finance- some basic factsStart—Discourses in 1940s; Early trials in 1963 in Egypt, Malaysia.1975 –Islamic Development Bank, a pan-Islamic financial organization born Now—Assets (2016): US$1.7 trillion Islamic finance organizations (Dec 2017): 80+ countriesUse of Islamic finance (Dec 2017): 140 + countries Global Islamic finance assets composition by organizational variety in 2016 Note: Assets/market size $1.7 tr is based on Deloitte estimate of the assets under management by Islamic financial institution in 2016. It’s 50% of UK GDP (5th largest in the world) & the size of private equity assets under management (Prequin estimate) & almost 13% of the market capitalization of New York Stok Exchange. 4(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

5. Islamic finance – what we read in the literatureA Saudi Arab Islaimzation project Islamic Development Bank – a vehicle of Islamization of economy (Kuran)A tool of Islamic revival (Khan, 2015)Extraction in the name of Islam (Fadel, 2008)A façade – Western capitalism in the guise of Islam (El-Gamal, 2006; Pitluck, 2012)Incoherent pietism (Irfan, 2014)A non-pragmatic, political financial form that would die out (Kuran, 2004, 2011) 5Religious, cultural hegemony Capitalist exploitationIslamic unityEconomic efficiency(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

6. Research QuestionWhere did Islamic finance emerge earlier? This requires an event history analysis. We need to find the first instance of an Islamic finance organization in each country (assuming ‘country’ as the unit of analysis).Then, we need to find out why in certain countries the first instance of Islamic finance organization is born earlier than others. 6(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

7. How to study emergence of Islamic finance then? 7Globalization of markets and IdeasCompetition, coercion, imitationEfficiency, Risk-ReturnRational choice of individual firms Consumer preferencesDemand factorsState capacity, Nature of the Economy, Culture, LawState forcesSocial movementLocal, global coercive forcesPerformative forces – once important models are out, they have a life on their ownA conceptual framework of pertinent theories The ‘social movement’, ‘consumer preference’ and ‘rational choice’ explanation of firms are largely ruled out through meta-analysis of existing evidence. Needs to understand the other forces better. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

8. HypothesesEconomic Rationality, Economic Capacity, and Financial Development Hypotheses H1: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with higher GDP growth. H2: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with higher credit rating (i.e., lower credit risk). H3: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with developed financial markets and institutions. Legal Environment HypothesisH4: Islamic finance appears earlier in the common-law origin countries. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 8

9. Hypotheses (cont’d)Cultural Resurgence HypothesesH5: Islamic finance appears earlier in the former British colony countries. H6: Islamic finance appears earlier in the former British colony countries with common law. H7: Islamic finance appears earlier in the former British colony countries with Sunni over Shia majority. Cultural Compatibility & Variation HypothesesH8: Islamic finance appears earlier in the Muslim majority countries.H9: Islamic finance appears earlier in countries that have more Sunni than Shia in their Muslim population. H10: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with Arabic as an official language. H11: Islamic finance appears later in the countries with English as an official language. H12: Islamic finance appears later in the countries with French as an official language. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 9

10. Hypotheses (cont’d)Geographic Clustering HypothesisH13: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries that are geographically closer to Saudi Arabia. Global Influence & Conflict Hypotheses H14: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with higher financing from Islamic Development Bank. H15: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with lower financing from World Bank. H16: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with lower financing from International Monetary Fund (IMF).H17: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries with high financing from both World Bank and Islamic Development Bank. H18: Islamic finance appears earlier in the countries that vote like Saudi Arabia in the United Nations. H19: Islamic finance appears later in the countries that vote like the United States in the United Nations. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 10

11. Identifying the first instance of Islamic finance organization in a country Sources: Google books, Google Scholar, Google Ngram, New York Times, Thomson Reuters, Factiva, Lexis Nexis, and Islamic Finance News country profiles, websites of the federal/central banks of all countries, and Islamic finance competitiveness reports by global consulting firms (e.g., Ernst & Young), ProQuest, Organizational of Islamic Cooperation publications, Islamic Development Bank data and publications, IMF, World Bank, OECD, Oxford encyclopedia.Search terms: “Islamic” / “Islam” & ‘country name’ with : “finance”, “bank”, “fund”, “profit sharing”, “insurance”, “mutual fund”, “index funds”, and “bond”. Single search items: “sukuk”, “shariah”, “sharia”, “zakat”, “hajj”, “pilgrimage”. Country specific search terms are also considered (e.g., special finance houses of Turkey). (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 11Data and Methods

12. Data and Methods (cont’d)Event history/ duration dependence modelsUnit of Analysis: Country-year observations, 186 countries in total, year 1975 – 2016The first instance earlier than 1975 are considered 1975. Three countries have such instances. Dependent variable: duration (the number of periods/years without any instance of Islamic finance organization) or event(the first instance of Islamic finance organization)Explanatory Variables (lagged by a year to account for endogeneity, as applicable): gdp growth rate, financial development (index from IMF), credit rating (continuous variable), Former British colony (1= the country is a former British colony, 0 = else), common law (1= common law, 0 = else), Muslim majority (1 = the country is Muslim majority, 0 = else), Muslim majority British colony (1= the country is a Muslim majority former British colony, 0 = else), Sunni over Shia (1 = Sunni population > Shia, 0 = else), Arabic as an official language (1= Arabic as official language, 0=else), English as an official language (1= English as official language, 0 = else), French as an official language (1= French as official language, 0=else), Similarity to Saudi Arabia in United Nations voting (continuous measure of cosine similarity), Distance from Saudi Arabia (log transformed continuous distance value), IDB engagement (sum of IDB financing in the country so far, 1+log transformed) World bank engagement (sum of world bank financing in the country so far, 1+log transformed), IMF financing (sum of IMF financing in the county so far, 1+log transformed).Several variables had imputed country-years based on available country years. Details of imputations are available upon request. The author is conducting further analyses for alternative measures of the variables and alternative specifications of the hypothesized relations. So, the results that follow are provisional. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 12

13. Results13(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. Figure 1: Kaplan – Meier survival estimate for the first instance of an Islamic finance organization in a countryFigure 2: Kaplan – Meier survival estimate for the first instance of an Islamic finance organization in a country: comparison between countries (1) that have Sunni over Shia majority in the Muslim population, i.e., sunnimajority = 1, and (2) that do not have Sunni over Shia majority in the Muslim population, i.e., sunnimajority =0. Figure 3: Kaplan – Meier survival estimate for the first instance of an Islamic finance organization in a country : comparison between countries (1) that are Islamic Development Bank (IDB) member countries, i.e., idbmember = 1, and (2) that are not IDB member countries, i.e., idbmember = 0.

14. Table 1 - Parametric Regression Model (exponential) Coefficients Dependent variable: duration (the number of periods/years without any instance of Islamic finance organization) or event(the first instance of Islamic finance organization)14VariablesModel 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6Model 7Constant-4.762***-4.829***-5.06***-7.209***-4.759***-3.934***-3.846***Economic & Financial Development VariablesGDP Growth0.025***0.025**0.025***0.0120.022*0.0210.023*Credit Rating-0.005-0.005-0.001Financial Development1.696*1.715*1.744*4.059***4.927***4.843***Legal Environment Hypothesis3.963***Legal Origin (1= common law, 0=else)0.171-0.3690.1190.0410.2760.05Cultural Resurgence HypothesesFormer British colony (1 = yes, 0 = no)-0.680Former British colony countries with common law (1 = yes, 0 = no)-0.679Sunni majority former British colony countries (1 = yes, 0 = no)0.721***0.928*1.390**0.7360.736Cultural Compatibility & Variation HypothesesMuslim majority2.417***2.586***1.967***2.017***Sunni over shia majority0.707*Arabic as an official language (1 = yes, 0=no)0.003-0.231-0.653-0.669English as an offiical language (1 = yes, 0=no)0.6260.5760.5250.703French as an official language (1= yes, 0= no)0.4490.4720.5280.324Geographic Clustering HypothesisDistance from Saudi Arabia-0.265**-0.583***-0.546***Global Influence & Conflict Hypotheses Degree of IDB Engagement (financing)0.190*0.129Degree of World Bank Engagement (financing)-0.043-0.129Degree of IMF Engagement (financing)0.1160.136High financing from both World Bank and IDB1.108*United Nations voting similarity to Saudi Arabia2.240*1.197*United Nations voting similarity to USA     0.184-0.182Model Fit Statistics # of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65Log likelihood = -172.12 Log likelihood = -172.94 Log likelihood = -163.02Log likelihood = -124.26Log likelihood = -124.29Log likelihood = -112.56Log likelihood = -109.20 LR chi-squared (3) = 9.60*LR chi-squared (4) = 9.96*LR chi-squared (7) = 27.8***LR chi-squared (9) = 105.32***LR chi-squared (9) = 105.25***LR chi-squared (14) = 128.72***LR chi-squared (15) = 135.44****p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001Note: Terms (explanatory variables) that are highly correlated with others but not significant are dropped from Model 4 onwards.(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

15. 15(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. Table 2- Regression Model (exponential/ Weibull/ Gompertz, Cox) Coefficients Dependent variable: duration (the number of periods/years without any instance of Islamic finance organization) or event(the first instance of Islamic finance organization)VariablesExponentialWeibullGompertzCoxConstant-3.934***-3.890**-3.983***Economic & Financial Development VariablesGDP Growth0.0210.0210.0210.019Credit RatingFinancial Development4.927***4.949***4.832***5.376***Legal Environment HypothesisLegal Origin (1= common law, 0=else)0.2760.270.2990.222Cultural Resurgence HypothesesFormer British colony (1 = yes, 0 = no)Former British colony countries with common law (1 = yes, 0 = no)Sunni majority former British colony countryies (1 = yes, 0 = no)0.7360.740.710.713Cultural Compatibility & Variation HypothesesMuslim majority1.967***1.956***2.009***1.985***Sunni over shia majorityArabic as an official language (1 = yes, 0=no)-0.653-0.656-0.641-0.576English as an official language (1 = yes, 0=no)0.5250.530.5060.644French as an official language (1= yes, 0= no)0.5280.530.5170.547Geographic Clustering HypothesisDistance from Saudi Arabia-0.583***-0.583***-0.583***-0.542Global Influence & Conflict Hypotheses Degree of IDB Engagement (financing)0.190*0.194*0.1770.197*Degree of World Bank Engagement (financing)-0.043-0.043-0.043-0.017Degree of IMF Engagement (financing)0.1160.1160.1150.098High financing from both World Bank and IDBUnited Nations voting similarity to Saudi Arabia2.240*2.236*2.223*2.032*United Nations voting similarity to USA0.1840.1840.175-0.063Model Fit Statistics # of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of subjects = 186# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65# of failures = 65Log likelihood = -112.56Log likelihood = -112.55Log likelihood = -112.50Log likelihood = -112.56 LR chi-squared (14) = 128.72***LR chi-squared (14) = 124.96***LR chi-squared (14) = 122.72***LR chi-squared (14) = 128.72****p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001Note: Table 2 is like Table 1 Model 6 for various distributional assumptions (including, non-parametric cox model).

16. DiscussionEconomic & Financial Development HypothesesGDP growth and credit rating of the countries are not that important for the early emergence of Islamic finance. Rather, the financial development of a country (including depth and breadth of financial markets and institutions) fosters the early emergence of Islamic finance.Legal Environment HypothesisThe legal environment as conceptualized by the common law origin of countries does not play an important role in the emergence of Islamic finance. Cultural Resurgence, Cultural Compatibility & Variation HypothesesCountries that are Sunni (over Shia) majority and former British colonies experience an early emergence of Islamic finance. But this result is subject to no additional accounting for Muslim majority countries. This result suggests that the role of variety of Islamic jurisprudence needs to be further investigated. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 16

17. DiscussionGeographic Clustering HypothesesCountries that are closer to Saudi Arabia see an early emergence of Islamic finance. One interpretation is that the historical pattern of transmission of Islam and geographic clustering of it is manifested in the case of Islamic finance as well. Another interpretation is that there is emulation among contiguous countries. Global Influence & Conflict Hypotheses Generally, the degree of Islamic Development Bank financing in a country leads to an early emergence of Islamic finance in the country. The influence of IDB financing is much stronger, when IDB and World Bank funding priorities appear to be similar (in terms of financing a country more). 17(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion.

18. Conclusion Even though the Muslim majority countries experience the early emergence of Islamic finance, the Sunni over Shia majority (in the Muslim population) plays a significant role such emergence. Specially, the role of Sunni (over Shia) majority is much stronger in the former British colonies. Hence, in several ways cultural resurgence is correlated with the emergence of Islamic finance. The emergence occurs much faster if a country has greater engagement with the Islamic finance supranational, IDB. However, the World Bank and IMF engagement in the countries does not deter such outcome; rather, Islamic finance appears to emerge earlier in countries that are prioritized by both IDB and World Bank for financing. The depth and breadth of the financial markets and institutions of countries play a significant role in the early emergence of Islamic finance. The results broadly suggest that even though the emergence of Islamic finance can be attributed to the aspiration of the former British colony Muslim (and Sunni majority) countries to assert their cultural identities in the economic lives, such assertion occurs most in countries that also have well-developed financial markets and institutions, as defined very much by Western indices. (c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 18

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21. Thank you!(c) Dissertation Research of Abdullah Shahid at Cornell University. Supported by Cornell University, Global Religion Research Initiative of University of Notre Dame, and Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. 21Abdullah ShahidPhD Candidate in SociologyCornell University, Ithaca, NYEmail: ais58@cornell.edu**The author is conducting further analyses for all the papers in this presentation. Full papers will be available for distribution in Fall 2021. The author is grateful to Prof David Strang, Prof Diane Burton, and Prof Richard Swedberg for their guidance in this project. The author also acknowledges the sincere research assistance of the following Cornell undergraduate students: Annie Fu, Tanmay Bansal, Christopher Elliott, and Shreya Subramanian.