Blind spots and misguided optimism in cycling policies and policy-oriented bicycle research - PowerPoint Presentation

1. Blind spots and misguided optimism in cycling policies and policy-oriented bicycle researchHarry Oosterhuis Department of HistoryFaculty of Arts and Social SciencesMaastricht University

2. Modal share bicycle around 2000 Netherlands 26-27Denmark 18-19Japan 14Germany Finland Sweden Belgium Austria Switzerland 8-10Italy France Norway 3-5United Kingdom, Ireland 2Canada 1-2United States Australia Spain Portugal Greece 1

3. Cycle distance per capita in kilometers Annually DailyNetherlands Denmark 850-1020 1,7-3Belgium Germany Sweden Finland 250-330 0,7-0,9 Ireland Italy Austria Switzerland 140-230 0,4 France UK Greece 70-100 0,1-0,2Portugal Spain 50 0,1

4. Bicycle ownership per capitaNetherlands Denmark 0.8-1,1Germany 0.7-0.9Sweden Finland 0.6-0.7Belgium Italy Austria 0.4-0.5France United Kingdom 0.3-0.4Spain Portugal Greece Ireland 0.2-0.3

5. Appraisal of the bicycle(very low – low – medium – high - very high) utilitarian leisureNetherlands Denmark Germany Sweden Finland Switzerland high-v. high highAustria Australia medium mediumCzech Republic low very high Greece very low mediumUnited States low mediumUnited Kingdom low low

6. ‘Bicycle-Renaissance’?Ambitious cycling policies throughout the Western world: optimism among policymakers, bicycle researchers and activists about the positive effects of infrastructural engineering and promotional campaigns.Overall and permanent increase in bike’s modal share?  Questionable.National differences in cycling levels remain the same and seem to be persistent What is the actual impact of bicycle policies in various countries?

7. Why are Dutch bicycle volumes the highest in the world? Usual explanations:Natural conditions: flatness, moderate climate.Built environment + demography: high levels of and compact urbanization, no extensive urban sprawl, high population density, short distances.Successful bicycle activism from the late 1960s on, followed by widely-supported and effective (local and national) cycling policies, in particular the building of bicycle infrastructures.

8. Such explanations are not entirely incorrect, but they far from complete and do not get to the heart of the matterThe natural conditions and built environment in the Netherlands are not unique: similar circumstances in several other countries/regions, but considerable lower bicycle levels.In other Western countries also bicycle activism and bicycle policy efforts (with various, but in general much less substantial results). Crucial question: Why were bicycle policies much more effective in the Netherlands (and also in Denmark) than in most other Western nations?

9. Why were bicycle policies much more effective in the Netherlands (and also in Denmark) than in most other Western nations?The importance of (national) culture and history:Dutch cycling policies were successful because cycling levels were already higher than elsewhere before large-scale bicycle infrastructures were realized and because the Dutch had been ‘bicycle-minded’ since the early 20th century.The effectiveness of cycling policies largely depends on existing cycling levels and a willingness to use facilities.

10. National bicycle culturesdifferent volumes and purposes of bicycle usedifferent meanings, images and perceptions of pedaling different patterns of entrenched transport behavior (habitus) different demographic characteristics of cyclists and their motivationsdifferences in the nature of cycling policies and activismThe result of the diverse ways the bicycles (and motoring) have been introduced and adopted in various national settings since the late 19th century  the path-dependence of cycling patterns.These factors have hardened in positive and negative spirals and are trapped in restraining or stimulating vicious circles.

11. Three contrasting historically rooted cycling cultures in the Western worldThe Netherlands and Denmark (Flanders?)(Germany, Sweden, Finland, Austria, Switzerland)United Kingdom, United States, AustraliaFrance, Italy, Spain, Belgium (Walloon part)

12. The Dutch and Danish bicycle cultureCycling part of natural daily routine from an early age. Bicycle used first of all for practical purposes; its role in leisure and sports, although also significant, is secondary. Cyclists largely representative for the population as a whole: cycling hardly associated with class, gender, lifestyle or political viewpoint. Cycling policies hardly disputed and politicized, but widely supported: cooperation of government and bicycle interest groups.Usefulness and benefits of cycling self-evident: policies focus on infrastructure and other facilities in order to ease the already high levels of bicycle traffic rather than promotion and education.Cyclists and motorists not pitted against each other (many Dutch and Danes both drive and pedal). Cyclists enjoy a high level of security in traffic and bike-riding is not regarded as particularly dangerous.

13. British, North-American and Australian bicycle cultureBicycles rather used for leisure and exercise than in daily commuting. Bike-riding as a typical childhood and youth experience at best (bikes as toys). Overrepresentation of (younger) men and students; women and the elderly underrepresented.Cycling either socially marginalized (the poor man’s humble utensil) or (more recently) exclusive (cycle chic in gentrified urban settings). Negative public perception of utilitarian cycling: abnormal, eccentric, inferior, unsafe, uncomfortable and (too) strenuous.Cycling activism and policies contested and politicized (the right to the road disputed; fundamental criticism of the dominance of motoring). Cyclists and motorists pitted against each other: motorists viewing cyclists as a nuisance, as incompetent and dangerous road users. Preoccupation with safety issues (helmets) and bicycle skills (and outfits/appearance).Cyclists as ‘a breed apart’, both in the public perception and in their self-image; the minority of regular and determined cyclists share pronounced motives and strong sensitivity for bicycle-hostile conditions.

14. French, Italian, Spanish and Walloon bicycle cultureLow levels of utilitarian bicycle use.Cycling strongly associated with sports (professional and for leisure) which is rooted in the popularity of (professional) bicycle racing. (National events: Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, Vuelta Ciclista, Ronde van België/Vlaanderen).Overrepresentation of men.

15. The historical background of British, North-American, Australian (and German) bicycle cultureChanging public image of cycling in the early 20th century  cycling rapidly outstripped by motoring after World War II: Class and status distinctions: cycling as a fashionable and exciting leisure pursuit for the well-off  the bicycle as a utilitarian vehicle for the masses  upper and middle class switching from cycling to motoring in order to distinguish themselves from the pedalling working class  the downgrading of the bicycle as the ‘poor man’s vehicle’, an inferior ‘humble utensil’ for those who cannot afford or drive a car. The association of motoring with modernity, progress and economic growth  technocratic traffic and urban planning facilitating motorized traffic and public transport + powerful automobile industries and lobbies  devaluation of cycling as outdated, slow, inefficient and unsafe, as an impediment to smooth and speedy circulation of traffic  traffic policies and urban planning geared to motoring and marginalizing cycling  dropping cycling levels; the bicycle as a vehicle for children, students, losers, eccentrics or the strongly motivated and skilled.

16. The historical background of Dutch and Danish bicycle cultureThe egalitarian dimension: the middle class and policy-makers did not turn their backs on the bicycle when the working class adopted it as a utilitarian vehicle  no social devaluation of the bicycle  the wide-spread image of the bicycle as an equalising, civilizing and assimilating tool, as the ‘democratic horse’ for all layers of the population  the responsible cyclist as the respectable participant in traffic and public life + the dissociation of cycling from sports  practical cycling as a habit among all social strata, age-groups and genders.The national dimension: the bicycle as a vehicle of national identity  cycling associated with civil virtues and national qualities: independence, moderation, simplicity, practicality, level-headedness, diligence and perseverance.The policy dimension: no large automobile industries and no marginalization of cycling organisations  traffic policies, urban planning and infrastructures geared to the complementary nature and shared needs of cyclists and motorists  cyclists not pushed off the road and steadily expanding bicycle infrastructures  the persistence of cycling as an attractive and efficient option.

17. The restraining vicious circle (practices, experiences, attitudes, policies) impeding the ‘normalization’ of cyclingLand use patterns, urban planning and traffic infrastructure not conductive to cycling Bicycle not broadly regarded as an obvious means of transport LowFew people cycle and have experience with it cycling levelsNegative image: fringe mode, abnormal, inferior, uncomfortable, dangerous, strenuous and demandinglack of sufficient social pressure, democratic support and willingness for changing the traffic infrastructure and curbing motoringHalf-hearted and discontinuous policies, not structurally embedded in broader traffic and urban planning policies and civil society  modest and disappointing results

18. The stimulating vicious circle facilitating the normalcy of cyclingHigh bicycle volumes + adequate/good quality facilitiesWidespread bicycle use and experience Positive image of cycling consolidation of high cycling levelsBroad support for bicycle policies Steady development and upkeep of cycling facilities Pedaling remains attractive and matter of course

19. The questionable assumption of bicycle policies and policy-oriented bicycle research The optimism that cycling can be stimulated on the basis of technical and social planning and design.Implementing infrastructural and other facilities in order to remove material and environmental barriers. Informing the public about the advantages of bicycling and promoting a positive image of the bicycle in order to change attitudes. Both methods are flawed: no conclusive evidence that cycling increases substantially as a direct result of infrastructural and promotional policies.

20. Infrastructure  increase of cycling?Correlation between improved infrastructural facilities and increased modal share: only under specific conditions and not in the same degree for all user groups. Correlation does not prove a causal link and if there is one, it remains to be seen what is cause and what is effect:infrastructure  rise of cycling levels?a preceding increase of cycling volumes  improved facilities serving the needs of already accustomed cyclists?self-selection: regular and motivated cyclists settling in a bicycle-friendly environment? The result of Danish and Dutch cycling policies: not so much a substantial increase, but rather making cycling safer, more efficient, more convenient and more enjoyable for existing cyclists.

21. ‘Soft’ policies (informing, advising, educating, promoting and marketing)  increase of cycling? Focus on motivation for either or not cycling  subjective perceptions of advantages and disadvantages (time-investment, costs, physical effort, health effects, (in)convenience, (in)efficiency, (un)safety) of cycling, which are embedded in habits, routines, experiences, attitudes, the social environment  vicious circles regular and experienced cyclists  those who hardly or never bicycle positive image negative image of the bicycle and environmental and infrastructural cycling conditions stressing advantages stressing disadvantagesdecision to cycle decision for other means of transportcycling experience no cycling experience

22. Who are affected by information, promotion and marketing campaigns?Those who already cycle rather than those who never or seldom cycle No fundamental and wide-spread changes in attitudes, motivation and behavior The effectiveness of soft policies depending on preceding cycling levels and the entrenched normalcy of cycling? countries with high cycling levels:  countries with low cycling volumes:cycling as a time-honored custom cycling not common practice and not perceived as normalfertile ground for positive information no fertile ground for positive image of about cycling cyclingconsolidation and facilitation no increase of cycling of existing cycle traffic

23. The blind spots of quantitative and policy-oriented social-scientific bicycle researchThe influence of culture and history on cycling levels and practices has been underestimated if not overlooked. Cultural and historical factors are invisible because of: The prevailing quantitative research methods: counting and measuring traffic movements, statistics, surveys.  Historical and cultural factors cannot be quantified.The unwillingness?/refusal?/inability? to question the basic (overoptimistic) assumption that cycling can be designed and the one-sided engineering and planning approach.  Cultural and historical factors cannot be directly influenced through infrastructural engineering and social planning.The unwillingness?/refusal?/inability? to take notice of the many historical studies on bicycling and to integrate the available historical knowledge in social-scientific research and policy-planning.

24. Is bicycle research getting stuck in a deadlock?What is the relevance of the avalanche of detailed, quantitative bicycle studies which we have seen in the past decades? How to prevent that policy-oriented bicycle research gets lost in wishful thinking and truisms?Will more research along the same lines, but on the basis of more refined data collection and analysis, more sophisticated social-scientific theories and models as well as more precise quantitative methods increase our understanding of the nature of cycling and add to the practical relevance of such work for policymaking?

25. The challenge of bicycle research and policies, in particular in countries with low cycling volumesHow to break out of restraining vicious circles (low cycling volumes and flawed practices; negative perceptions and public images; adverse attitudes and habits; car-geared land use, urban design and traffic infrastructures; unwilling governments and powerless bicycle lobbies) that impede the ‘normalization’ of cycling?Cycling cannot be normalized and substantially increased without curbing motoring.  How to defy powerful motoring interests and introduce drastic restrictions on driving?