3Robert W Baird Co8Robert W Baird Co2Robert W Baird Co6Robert W Baird Co7Robert W Baird Co4Robert W Baird Co5Robert W Baird CoBen Kallo CFA 4153643345Tyler Frank 4153643342Model Date 1142015Y ID: 867760
Download Pdf The PPT/PDF document "Intended for noemailbairdcom only Proper..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1 Intended for noemail@baird.com only. Pro
Intended for noemail@baird.com only. Property of Baird. Contact Baird for permission to share. 3 Robert W. Baird & Co. 8 Robert W. Baird & Co. 2 Robert W. Baird & Co. 6 Robert W. Baird & Co. 7 Robert W. Baird & Co. 4 Robert W. Baird & Co. 5 Robert W. Baird & Co. Ben Kallo, CFA 415.364.3345 Tyler Frank 415.364.3342 Model Date: 11/4/2015 Year-End: December Income Statement (in millions) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Q1:14A Q2:14A Q3:14A Q4:14A 2014A Q1:15A Q2:15A Q3:15A Q4:15E 2015E 2016E Interest Income, Financing Receivables 8.9 11.4 10.9 11.7 11.8 17.4 5.9 6.4 7.1 7.6 27.0 8.7 8.6 10.4 12.0 39.7 62.7 Rental Income 0.4 1.2 1.6 3.2 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.6 9.2 10.4 Interest Expense (8.6) (10.6) (9.6) (9.4) (9.9) (9.8) (3.5) (3.7) (4.0) (5.5) (16.7) (6.1) (6.1) (6.7) (8.0) (27.0) (40.0) Net Interest Margin 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 2.0 7.5 2.4 3.1 4.3 3.7 13.5 4.7 5.0 5.73 6.5 22.0 33.1 Provision for Credit
2 Losses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (11.0) 0.0 0.
Losses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (11.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gain on Securitizations 4.1 10.0 6.3 4.0 3.9 5.6 2.0 4.3 3.4 3.6 13.2 2.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 10.3 14.4 Advisory Fees 1.2 0.9 7.7 0.9 11.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.7 Non-Investment Income 5.3 10.9 14.0 4.9 15.3 7.1 3.3 4.5 3.5 3.8 15.2 3.1 2.4 2.6 3.5 11.6 16.1 Total Revenue, Net of Investment Interest Expense and Provision 5.6 11.8 15.3 7.2 17.3 3.6 5.7 7.6 7.8 7.5 28.6 7.8 7.4 8.4 10.0 33.6 49.2 Provision for Loan Losses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SG&A (5.4) (7.1) (9.7) (7.0) (12.0) (16.3) (2.8) (4.4) (4.6) (4.5) (16.3) (5.4) (5.5) (6.0) (5.7) (22.7) (24.1) Acquisition Costs (1.4) (1.4) Operating Income 0.3 4.7 5.6 0.2 5.3 (12.7) 2.9 3.2 3.2 1.7 10.9 2.4 1.9 2.3 4.3 10.9 25.0 Other Interest Expense (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (0.
3 3) 0.0 Other Income (expense) (0.0) (0.0
3) 0.0 Other Income (expense) (0.0) (0.0) 0.2 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (0.0) 0.2 (0.1) 0.0 Pre-Tax Income (0.4) 4.2 5.4 0.0 5.1 (12.9) 2.9 3.2 3.2 1.7 11.0 2.1 1.9 2.2 4.3 10.5 25.0 Income tax benefit (expense) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 (0.1) 0.8 (0.6) (0.2) (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 Equity in net income of unconsolidated affiliates 0.0 (0.4) 8.7 (5.0) (1.3) 0.0 0.0 (1.2) (0.0) (0.0) (1.2) (0.3) (0.0) (0.3) 0.0 Net Income (0.4) 3.8 14.1 (5.0) 3.8 (12.6) 2.8 3 2.6 1.5 9.7 2.1 1.5 2.1 4.3 10.1 25.0 Core Earnings (0.4) 3.8 14.1 (5.0) 3.8 5.8 3.3 4.7 4.9 7.1 20.3 7.4 8.1 8.543 10.1 34.1 49.7 Basic shares n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.7 15.9 20.0 21.8 26.2 21.9 26.4 29.5 31.2 36.1 30.8 39.6 Diluted shares n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.7 16.5 20.9 22.7 24.9 20.7 26.4 29.5 31.2 36.1 30.8 39.6 GAAP EPS n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a (0.80) 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.05 0.43 0.07 0.0 0.07 0.12 0.33 0.63 Net loss attribut
4 able to non-controlling interest holders
able to non-controlling interest holders (2.2) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 EPS Attributable to Controlling Interest Holders n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a (0.68) 0.17 0.13 0.11 0.05 0.45 0.07 0.0 0.07 0.12 0.33 0.63 Core Earnings Per Share/Dividend Per Share* n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.36 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.93 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.27 1.06 1.21 Segment Analysis Analysis Sales Mix Investment Income 5.5% 7.2% 8.5% 31.9% 11.5% 207.9% 41.8% 40.8% 54.6% 49.4% 47.1% 60.1% 67.8% 68.6% 65.1% 65.4% 67.3% Non-Investment Income 94.5% 92.8% 91.5% 68.1% 88.5% 195.0% 58.2% 59.2% 45.4% 50.6% 52.9% 39.9% 32.2% 31.4% 34.9% 34.6% 32.7% Y/Y Growth Investment Income n/a 174.3% 54.2% 77.0% -13.1% 278.2% 402.0% 132.2% 64.8% 18.2% 78.4% 95.8% 62.8% 34.2% 75.5% 63.1% 50.5% Non-Investment Income n/a 105.2% 28.5% -65.1% 212.0% -53.7% 1081.0% 192.3% 60.7% 24.4% 113.9% -6.7% -46.6% -25.9% -8.1% -23.3% 38.6% Margin Analysis Net Interest Margin 3.4
5 % 7.4% 11.9% 19.6% 16.8% 43.5% 40.3% 48.
% 7.4% 11.9% 19.6% 16.8% 43.5% 40.3% 48.6% 60.5% 48.9% 50.0% 53.5% 58.7% 54.9% 54.6% 55.3% 52.7% SG&A to Sales 95.1% 60.2% 63.5% 96.7% 69.6% 448.4% 49.6% 57.7% 59.0% 59.9% 57.0% 69.0% 74.6% 72.4% 57.0% 29.0% 29.0% EBIT Margin 4.9% 39.8% 36.5% 3.3% 30.4% -351.1% 50.4% 42.3% 41.0% 22.1% 38.3% 31.0% 25.4% 27.6% 43.0% 32.5% 50.9% Pre-Tax Margin -119.9% 494.9% 417.4% 1.5% 254.9% -355.4% 50.4% 42.3% 41.1% 22.1% 38.3% 27.4% 25.0% 25.9% 43.0% 31.2% 50.9% Effective Tax Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.9% 2.1% -25.9% 18.9% 11.3% -0.2% -1.1% 4.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Income Margin -6.5% 32.0% 91.8% -69.6% 22.0% -348.0% 49.4% 37.9% 32.8% 19.4% 33.9% 27.7% 19.8% 25.4% 43.0% 29.9% 50.9% Core Earnings Margin -6.5% 32.0% 91.8% -69.6% 22.0% 160.7% 57.9% 62.3% 63.3% 94.6% 70.8% 95.4% 108.9% 102.3% 100.8% 101.7% 101.2% Y/Y Growth Revenue n/a 109.0% 30.4% -53.1% 140.1% 278.2% 402.0% 132.2% 64.8% 18.2% 78.4% 95.8%
6 62.8% 34.2% 75.5% 17.3% 46.4% SG&A n/a
62.8% 34.2% 75.5% 17.3% 46.4% SG&A n/a 32.2% 37.4% -28.4% 72.8% 35.2% 53.6% -48.8% 58.5% 50.3% 0.2% 89.4% 26.8% 31.3% 26.8% 38.9% 6.5% Operating Income n/a 1609.1% 19.7% -95.8% 2143.6% -342.8% -341.1% -156.5% 69.3% -121.4% -185.9% -16.3% -41.0% -28.1% 158.8% -0.3% 129.4% Pre-Tax Income n/a 1232.3% 130.0% 0.6% 14537.1% -353.6% -332.1% -155.4% 69.1% -121.4% -184.9% -26.1% -42.1% -32.5% 158.8% -4.5% 139.3% Net Income n/a 1122.3% 274.3% -135.6% 175.9% -432.1% -330.8% -149.6% 35.1% -119.4% -176.8% -23.7% -48.7% -17.4% 195.5% 3.6% 149.1% Core Earnings n/a 1122.3% 274.3% -135.6% 175.9% 53.4% -396.3% 355.3% 112.5% 98.9% 247.5% 124.3% 71.3% 72.7% 41.9% 68.4% 45.7% Source: Company reports, Robert W. Baird Estimates Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification. Hannon Armstrong (HASI) Ben Kallo, CFA 415.364.3345 Tyler Frank 415.364.3342 Model Date: 11/4/2015 Year-End: Decemb
7 er Balance Sheet (in millions) 2012A Q1
er Balance Sheet (in millions) 2012A Q1:13A Q2:13A Q3:13A Q4:13A 2013A Q1:14A Q2:14A Q3:13A Q4:14A 2014A Q1:15A Q2:15A Q3:15A Cash & cash equivalents 8.0 3.3 14.8 24.2 31.8 31.8 39.6 38.7 60.9 58.2 58.2 65.5 21.7 30.7 Restricted Cash 0.1 0.1 29.2 38.9 49.9 49.9 43.1 9.6 11.9 11.9 14.7 12.9 14.4 Investments 43.4 27.3 27.3 22.8 28.5 28.2 Financing Receivables 197.6 192.3 297.3 327.5 347.9 347.9 395.6 456.1 485.2 615.0 615.0 594.0 688.6 777.5 Real estate 63.3 90.9 90.9 105.6 126.7 129.3 Real estate-related intangible assets 18.3 23.1 23.1 24.8 25.5 25.8 Other current assets 7.1 16.0 49.9 130.0 141.9 141.9 112.2 159.8 32.5 183.9 183.9 167.3 277.6 201.7 Total Assets 212.8 211.6 391.3 520.6 571.4 571.4 590.4 664.1 703.7 1,010.3 1,010.3 994.7 1,181.4 1,207.6 Recourse Debt 4.2 0.0 0.0 166.7 77.1 77.1 117.1 166.2 212.8 315.7 315.7 321.2 420.5 378.1 Non-Recourse Debt 196.0 196.6 194.1 187.8 259.9 259.9 249
8 .5 242.3 211.9 320.8 320.8 319.5 305.2 3
.5 242.3 211.9 320.8 320.8 319.5 305.2 393.1 Other Liabilities 6.8 10.5 33.9 2.1 83.8 83.8 73.3 33.4 59.4 99.7 99.7 83.3 109.4 95.0 Total Liabilities 207.0 207.2 228.0 356.6 420.8 420.8 439.9 442.0 484.0 736.2 736.2 724.0 835.1 866.2 Non-controlling interest redeemable for cash 3.1 4.9 Shareholder's Equity 5.8 4.5 163.2 164.1 150.6 150.6 147.4 217.2 219.6 274.0 274.0 270.7 346.3 341.4 Total Liabilities & Equity 212.8 211.6 391.3 520.6 571.4 571.4 590.4 664.1 703.7 1,010.3 1,010.3 994.7 1,181.4 1,207.6 Balance Sheet Metrics Leverage Ratios Debt Ratio 94.1% 92.9% 49.6% 68.1% 59.0% 59.0% 62.1% 61.5% 60.3% 63.0% 63.0% 64.4% 61.4% 63.9% Debt-to-Equity Ratio 3451.7% 4417.4% 118.9% 216.1% 223.8% 223.8% 248.7% 188.1% 193.4% 232.3% 232.3% 236.7% 209.6% 225.9% Source: Company reports, Robert W. Baird Estimates Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification. Hannon Armstrong (HASI