Weekly Update on Dairy Deli Bakery Retail Trends during COVID-19 - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Weekly Update on Dairy Deli Bakery Retail Trends during COVID-19

IRI, IDDBA & 210 Analytics

Jonna ParkerTeam Lead, IRI Fresh Center of Excellence

Week Ending 04/05/2020

Slide2

What Consumers Are Saying

Slide3

Concerns About COVID-19 Appear to Have Passed the Peak, Though Consumers Continue to Prepare for Extended Time

Source:  IRI Surveys among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers

Over half of Americans still believe the

Health Crisis will last

3+ More Months

Slide4

How Do Americans Plan to Spend the CARES Stimulus Money?

Only a third of US shoppers plan to take their relief check to the grocery store

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. Q.

What are the main ways you expect to use the money you receive from the government stimulus/economic relief plan?

Slide5

Changes Consumers Made to Eating Habits Will Continue After the Crisis Abates

Source:  IRI Survey 4/10-4/12 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers

Eating at Home More Often Instead of at Restaurants

Making Coffee at Home More Often Instead of Going to Coffee Shops

Creating More Meals from Scratch

CHANGES DUE TO COVID-19

AFTER STAY-AT-HOME RESTRICTIONS END,

THOSE WHO MADE CHANGES PLAN TO….

Continue to create meals from scratch

more than before

Wait a few extra weeks

after the restrictions are over, before returning to restaurants

Wait a month or more

after the restrictions are over, before returning to restaurants

43%

38%

Continue to make coffee at home

more than before

66%

55%

Slide6

What Shoppers Are Buying

Slide7

Large Format Retail Food & Beverage Sales Accelerated Slightly in the Latest Week, Growing 27% vs. Year Ago;

Nonedibles

Continued to Decelerate

Dollar % Chg. vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model

 02-23-20

03-15-20

 02-09-20

 02-02-20

 02-16-20

03-22-20

 03-01-20

03-08-20

03-29-20

Total

Store

F&B

Non-

edibles

04-05-20

6 month F&B growth benchmark (+2.2%)

% Chg. vs. Prior Week:

Total Store:

+6.9%

F&B:

+9.4%

Nonedibles:

+1.2%

April 15

~500,000 have recovered from COVID-19

March 12

Dow Jones drops more than 10%, the biggest drop since 1987

March 13

CPG retail sales were 53% higher than the highest day in 2019

6 month Nonedibles growth benchmark (+0.9%)

Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm

MARKET PERFORMANCE: TOTAL STORE

Slide8

LEGEND

Consumers Have Shifted

From Stocking Up Across Total Store to Focused

P

urchases

of F&B;

Fill-ins Include

F

resh and Frozen to Offset Pantry

I

tems

$ % Chg. vs YAG - MULO

Jan 6 to Mar 1

W/E

Mar

8

W/E

Mar 15

W/E

Mar 22

W/E

Mar 29

W/E

Apr 5

TOTAL

STORE

1.4%

12.6%

67.9%

62.5%

15.5%

18.0%

Total Nonedible

1.0%

19.6%

61.3%

43.0%

2.3%

0.3%

Total

F&B

1.6%

9.0%

71.4%

73.1%

22.6%

27.3%

Paper Products

2.9%

60.1%

212.7%

96.5%

40.2%

33.5%

Home Care

3.5%

41.5%

103.6%

75.5%

21.7%

14.6%

OTC Healthcare

5.1%

26.2%

73.6%

62.9%

6.1%

-0.3%

Personal Care

2.8%

19.8%

50.7%

35.8%

-4.1%

-5.8%

Pet Food + Care

3.1%

7.5%

40.1%37.5%-6.0%-6.0%Gen Merchandise -2.0%7.5%23.2%21.1%2.5%5.1%Cosmetics-0.1%4.1%9.2%-4.7%-21.3%-15.4%Beverage2.1%13.0%60.1%48.8%8.3%11.6%Packaged Food1.1%11.7%87.6%87.1%25.3%28.8%Alcohol3.6%8.7%40.9%56.8%27.8%36.7%Baby Food + Care-3.1%8.2%65.3%41.8%-18.8%-23.7%Dairy1.3%5.6%59.9%59.9%22.0%31.2%Frozen Foods1.9%5.3%82.2%96.3%32.9%36.4%Fresh Foods1.3%5.0%59.5%63.6%19.9%23.8%

50%+

20% to 50%

10% to 20%

0% to 5%

-20% to 0%

5% to 10%

<-20%

Source: IRI POS data Week Ending April 5, 2020 vs year ago

NONEDIBLE

F&B

MARKET PERFORMANCE: TOTAL STORE

Slide9

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers Q.

Which of the following changes have you or your household recently made, if any, because of the Coronavirus?

Even After Initial Pantry Stocking, Consumers Still Shifting

Spend to Grocery Retail

Pantry stocking behavior led to initial grocery sales increases.

Shelter-at-home directives across most states shut down in-restaurant dining, limit out-of-home options.

Consumers continue to cook at home, both working down their pantry stockpile, and augmenting with fresh foods.

Meat saw higher demand with dollar sales gains of

41%

for the week ending April 5 vs. the comparable week in 2019.

Meat continues to be the lead sales driver for fresh departments.

“(I am) choosing to eat at home more often rather than going to restaurants”

32%

3/13-3/15

65%

4/10-4/12

Slide10

F&B and Non-edibles Are Both Driving Significant E-Commerce Growth; Click & Collect Accounts for 77% of Food & Beverage E-Commerce Sales

55.4%

58.8%

Total

F&B

Nonedibles

66.7%

Dollar % Chg. vs YAG

% Sales Click & Collect vs. Delivery/Ship

Dollar % Chg. vs. YA //

4 weeks ending March 29, 2020 //

Total U.S. //

E-c

ommerce

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, Total Store is an aggregate of the 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Baseline is based on L4 Wks Ending 3/29/2020

MARKET PERFORMANCE: ECOMMERCE

F&B

Total

Nonedibles

Click & Collect

100%

Delivery/Ship

Note: Click & Collect and Delivery/Shipment are comprised of the following retailers: Costco, Giant Eagle, HEB, Hy-Vee, Meijer, Publix, Sam's Club, Shoprite, Target, Kroger, and Walmart

Slide11

Perishables Like Meat Drove Growth Similar to

Center-Store / Frozen as Meals Turned to At-Home

Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh

$ Sales % Chg

WE 04-05-20

Share of Total Store Sales WE 04-05-20

YTD 2020

Source: IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Including Random-Weight(note: Deli excludes UPC third-party items);

IRI Survey fielded 4/3-4/5 2020, among NCP representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers

Fresh foods retain the same share of total store sales with only service departments suffering.

17% of shoppers say they plan to buy

more

fresh foods during the pandemic, only 13% say they plan to buy less.

*Fresh Deli includes random weight lunch meat,

deli cheese and deli prepared foods only.

Slide12

Dairy, Deli and Bakery Sales Trends

Slide13

Dairy

Dairy has been a sales powerhouse with more at-home consumption occasions, including baking

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago ending 4/5/20

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Sales week ending

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Dairy

+1.5%

+5.6%

+60.0%

+60.0%

+22.2%

+30.6%

$1.7B

Natural cheese

+3.7%

+8.7%

+70.6%

+73.8%

+30.5%

+39.8%

$341M

Milk

+3.1%

+6.7%

+52.2%

+47.5%

+12.2%

+22.5%

$321M

Eggs

-6.1%

-1.0%

+71.2%

+71.5%

+36.8%

+51.8%

$171M

Yogurt

-0.4%

+3.7%

+41.7%

+21.5%

-7.0%

-2.2%

$145M

Cream/creamers

+3.0%

+6.5%

+47.6%

+43.0%

+15.9%

+25.4%

$96M

Butter+5.9%+8.5%+90.2%

+111.8%+61.8%+71.0%$95MProcessed cheese+2.9%+7.0%

+80.5%+111.2%+43.4%+46.2%$73MCream cheese+3.5%

+7.9%+60.0%+69.0%+31.3%+42.4%$43MMargarine/spreads

-2.7%+2.5%+79.9%+104.8%+39.6%+31.4%$32M

Sour cream

-1.5%+1.8%

+49.6%+60.2%

+35.0%+47.6%

$32MWhipped toppings

+2.5%

+3.6%

+32.5%

+41.2%

+26.7%

+41.6%

$28M

Cottage cheese

-4.5%

-1.4%+35.6%+33.8%+3.9%+9.0%$23M

Slide14

Deli

Continued mixed success for the deli department with service

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago, ending 4/5/20

Slide15

Deli Meat

Deli meat sales remained elevated, with above-average interest in packaged

Random weight deli meat

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Sales week ending

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Dollar sales

-1.2%

+5.0%

+40.5%

+37.5%

+6.6%

+6.2%

$120M

Volume sales

-4.2%

+1.1%

+35.2%

+33.9%

+2.3%

+1.5%

Pre-packaged lunchmeat

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Sales week ending

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Dollar sales

-4.1%

+2.5%

+78.9%

+88.7%

+22.3%

+26.3%

$136M

Volume sales

-6.9%

+1.1%

+73.7%

+88.6%

+17.1%

+18.0%

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago, ending 4/5/20

RW Deli Grab & Go +70% vs Year Ago - highest of any week yet – 43% of sales for w/e 4-5-20

Slide16

Deli Cheese

Deli cheese sales remained elevated, with above-average interest in packaged

Random weight deli cheese

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Sales week ending

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Dollar sales

-1.2%

+5.0%

+40.5%

+37.5%

+16.0%

+6.2%

$55M

Volume sales

-4.2%

+1.1%

+35.2%

+33.9%

+11.8%

+9.7%

Fixed weight cheese

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Sales week ending

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Dollar sales

+3.6%

+8.4%

+72.2%

+80.0%

+32.7%

+40.9%

$414M

Volume sales

-2.0%

4.0%

64.2%

74.3%

+25.7%

+29.4%

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

RW Deli Grab & Go +81% vs Year Ago - highest of any week yet – 45% of sales for w/e 4-5-20

Slide17

Deli Prepared

With many self-serve, cook-to-order and other deli prepared stations closed, sales are off

Sales week of April 5, 2020

Aisle-refrigerated meals

-8.5%

Deli prepared department

-43.1%

Entrees

-43.4%

Appetizers

-39.8%

Sandwiches

-42.9%

Salads

-53.4%

Sides

-30.1%

Dips/sauces

-21.7%

Pizza

-34.9%

Trays

-82.3%

Combo meals

-81.8%

Desserts

-57.9%

Soups

-94.6%

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending April 5, 2020. Refrigerated Meals are UPC, pre-pack third party branded

Deli Prepared includes random weight as well as private label UPC items

Slide18

Bakery

UPC, packaged baked goods are performing well; in-store bakery (non-UPC) is off

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago, ending 4/5/20In-Store Bakery includes only non-UPC/random-weight items

Slide19

Packaged, UPC Baked Goods

Gains for functional items, especially

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Weekly sales for w/e

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Bakery aisle

-1.3%

+3.0%

+44.3%

+49.2%

+15.3%

+18.9%

$519M

Fresh bread and rolls

-0.4%

+4.9%

+58.6%

+64.5%

+25.4%

+29.3%

$321M

Bakery snacks

-2.8%

+2.2%

+23.1%

+29.2%

-2.8%

-0.1%

$53M

Pastries and doughnuts

-0.8%

+0.9%

+29.1%

+30.9%

+3.0%

+14.2%

$29M

Bagels

+1.7%

+4.7%

+49.7%

+17.6%

+25.9%

+28.9%

$24M

English muffins

-5.6%

+0.4%

+51.4%

+51.7%

+23.1%

+35.5%

$18M

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago, week ending 4/5/20

Slide20

Cookies and Crackers (UPC)

Gains starting the second week of March onwards

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019

for week ending…

Weekly sales for w/e

3/1/20

3/8/20

3/15/20

3/22/20

3/29/20

4/5/20

4/5/20

Cookies and crackers

+0.1%

+6.3%

+62.3%

+60.8%

+12.7%

+14.0%

$338M

Cookies

-1.7%

+3.9%

+50.5%

+53.5%

+13.5%

+15.1%

$183M

Crackers

+2.1%

+9.1%

+75.6%

+69.0%

+11.7%

+12.8%

$155M

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago, week ending 4/5/20

Slide21

In-store (fresh) bakery

Struggles for indulgent items continued

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago, week ending 4/5/20In-Store Bakery includes only non-UPC , random-weight items and no fixed weight items

Top seven items in sales

Sales increase for the week ending 4/5/2020

In-store bakery total

-22.9%

Cakes

-35.1%

Bread

+10.7%

Breakfast items

-12.6%

Rolls

-11.6%

Cookies

-14.9%

Donuts

-51.9%

Croissants

+5.6%

Slide22

Pictures from Around the Nation

Slide23

Kroger Greenwood, IN – 4.15.2020

Slide24

Kroger Greenwood, IN – 4.15.2020

Slide25

Albertson’s – Phoenix, Arizona April 8, 2020

Slide26

Albertson’s – Phoenix, Arizona April 8, 2020

Basha’s – Phoenix, Arizona April 11, 2020

Slide27

IRI COVID-19 Thought Leadership

Helping You Stay Informed

IRI’s Online Insights Offers Real-Time

Updates and Weekly Reports of the Impact

of the Virus on CPG and Retail, as Well as

Consumer Survey Data from this Report

The IRI COVID-19 Info Portal

Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards and the latest thought leadership on supply chain, consumer behavior, channel shifts for the U.S. AND international markets

The COVID-19 Dashboard

Accessible through the insights portal and tracks the daily impact of COVID-19. This includes the top categories across countries, out-of-stocks and consumer

sentiment on social media.

Slide28

An in-depth deep dive into consumer behavior and the implications of this unprecedented era will be shared in an hour-long webcast

MAY 13 at 1pmCSThttps://iddba.webex.com/iddba/onstage/g.php?MTID=eb907300e74fccc8bff0453ed37bbe65c

QUESTIONS