Experiences from the USA amp Canada Seminar on Business Cycle Dating Mexico City Oct 3031 2019 CIDE Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas or Center for Research and Teaching in Economics ID: 1043524
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1. Panel on “International Experiencesfrom the USA & Canada,”Seminar on Business Cycle DatingMexico City, Oct. 30-31, 2019CIDE Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, (or Center for Research and Teaching in Economics). Jeffrey FrankelHarpel Professor of Capital Formation and GrowthHarvard Kennedy School, Harvard UniversityViews are the author’s alone, and not those of the NBER.
2. The official status of the NBER datesis confirmed on the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce:“The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization.”2
3. Figure 1: The NBER BCDC has declared 5 US recessions since 19783
4. Figure 2: Italy had 3 separate recessions since 2008, according to the 2-quarter-negative-GDP ruleeven as GDP remained far below the 2009 peak.4
5. Dates of the 10 business cycle turning pointsdeclared by the US NBER BCDC5
6. Fig.3: Japan had 6 or 7 recessions between 1993 & 2015, according to the 2-quarter-negative-GDP rule.(Growth has averaged only 1% p.a. in recent decades.)But Japan’s government panel does not follow that rule.6