Southlake Kids Interested in Leadership Hosted by Rep Capriglione HD 98 Austin TX April 6 2018 TexasDemography 2 Demography the study of the size distribution and composition of populations the processes determining these namely fertility mortality and migration and the ID: 789396
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Slide1
Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections
Southlake Kids Interested in LeadershipHosted by Rep. Capriglione HD 98Austin, TXApril 6, 2018
@TexasDemography
Slide22
Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.
~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
Slide33
The Population Research Institute,2.1 Kids: Stable Populationhttp://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY
Slide4Texas is experiencing significant growth.
Slide5Growing States, 2000-2017
5
2000
Population
2010
Population
2017 Population
Numeric
Change
2010-2017
Percent
Change
2010-2017
United States281,421,906308,745,538325,719,17816,961,0735.49%Texas20,851,82025,145,56128,304,5963,158,49612.56%California33,871,64837,253,95639,536,6532,282,1356.13%Florida15,982,37818,801,31020,984,4002,179,80611.59%Georgia8,186,4539,687,65310,429,379740,6897.65%North Carolina8,049,3139,535,48310,273,419737,6987.74%Washington5,894,1216,724,5407,405,743681,19810.13%Arizona5,130,6326,392,0177,016,270623,9619.76%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count,
2017
Population Estimates.
Slide6Population Growth, 2010-2017
Area2010
2017Numeric Change
Percent Change
United
States
308,745,538
325,719,178
16,961,073
5.49%
Texas
25,145,561
28,304,596
3,158,49612.56%Tarrant County1,809,0342,054,475243,86113.48%6Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.
Slide7Total Estimated Population by County, Texas,
2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Slide8Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to
20168Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population
Estimates
96
counties lost population over the
6
year period.
Slide9Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016
9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Slide10Components of Population Change
by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population
Estimates
Slide11Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas,
2016-2017
8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
2017
Vintage Population Estimates
.
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016.
County
U.S. Rank
2016-2017
Percent Population
ChangePercent Change from Domestic MigrationPercent Change from InternationalMigration Comal25.1%95.9%4.0%Hays45.0%82.2%1.8%Kendall54.9%88.5%2.0%Kaufman114.1%74.1%5.6%Rains134.0%59.4%15.8%Williamson163.7%73.5%8.0%Rockwall223.6%82.2%2.5%Parker263.6%67.1%9.0%Denton
32
3.5%
81.3%
2.2%
Guadalupe
36
3.3%
83.5%
0.7%
Ellis
44
3.1%
78.1%
2.6%
2015-2016
Slide12Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas,
2016-2017
9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
2016
Vintage Population Estimates.
County
U.S. Rank
Population Change
Population
Change, 2016-2017
Percent of Change from Natural
Increase
Percent Change from Domestic MigrationPercent Change from International MigrationHarris435,93979.9%-27.9%48.1%Tarrant5 32,729 44.4%37.7%17.9%Bexar7 30,831 44.6%39.3%16.1%Dallas8 30,686 79.9%-20.9%41.0%Denton9 27,911 23.9%67.1%9.0%Collin1027,15024.8%59.4%15.8%Fort Bend1422,87025.8%58.7%15.5%
Travis
15
22,116
44.2%
33.3%
22.5%
Williamson
19
19,776
20.3%
74.1%
5.6%
Montgomery
28
16,412
18.5%
73.5%
8.0%
2015-2016
Slide13Texas continues to diversify.
Slide14Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000, 2010, and 2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates
11
Slide15Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2016
United StatesTexas
Tarrant CountyTotal
323,127,513
27,862,596
2,016,872
NH White
197,969,608
(61.3%)
11,872,926 (42.6%)
965,210 (47.9%)
NH Black
40,229,236
(12.4%)3,298,870 (11.8%)321,878 (16.0%)NH Asian17,741,457 (5.5%)1,301,143 (4.7%)107,630 (5.3%)NH Other2,954,629 (0.9%)113,744 (0.4%)11,054 (0.5%)NH Two or More Races6,762,296 (2.1%) 394,789 (1.4%)37,895 (1.9%)Hispanic57,470,287 (17.8%)10,881,124 (39.1%)573,205 (28.4%)15
Slide16Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010
16
Slide1717
Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth,
2005-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS
Slide1818
Slide19Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates, the U.S. and select states, 2015
Area
Rank
Birth
Rate Per 1,000 Women
United States
23.3
Arkansas
1
38.0
Mississippi
2
34.8Oklahoma334.8New Mexico434.6Texas534.6Louisiana634.1Kentucky732.4West Virginia831.9Tennessee930.5Alabama1030.1Alaska1129.3Wyoming1229.2Nevada1327.6South Dakota1426.4Arizona1526.319Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Slide20Texas is young, but aging.
Slide21States with the Oldest Median Ages, 2000, 2010, 2014
2000
2010
2014
Rank
State
Med Age
Rank
State
Median Age
Rank
State
Median Age
1West Virginia38.91Maine42.71Maine44.22Florida38.72Vermont41.52New Hampshire42.63Maine38.63
West Virginia
41.3
3
Vermont
42.6
4
Pennsylvania
38
4
New Hampshire
41.1
4
West Virginia
42.0
5…
Vermont
37.7
5…
Florida
40.7
5…
Florida
41.8
…46
California
33.3
…46
California
35.2
…46
Idaho
35.7
47
Idaho
33.2
47
Idaho
34.6
47
North Dakota
34.9
48
Alaska
32.4
48
Alaska
33.8
48
Texas
34.2
49
Texas
32.3
49
Texas
33.6
49
Alaska
33.3
50
Utah
27.1
50
Utah
29.2
50Utah30.5-United States35.3-United States37.2-United States37.7Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Censuses US Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimate by State
21
Slide22Median Age, Texas Counties, 2012-2016
22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American
Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Slide23Percent of Population 65 Years Plus, Texas Counties, 2011-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
30
Slide24Population by Age Group and as Percent of the Total Texas Population, 1950-2050
24
Source: Texas Demographic
Center 2014 Population Projections ,
0.5
Migration Scenario
Slide25Economic Outlook
Slide26Median Household Income
Change, 2015-2016Texas
$56,565
+
Asian
$82,081
+
NH White
$70,131
+
Hispanic
$44,579
+
Black$42,582 +Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2016Unemployment rate Texas = 5.6% U.S. = 5.8%Median Household Income Texas = $56,565 U.S. = $57,617Median Family Income Texas = $67,025 U.S. = 71,062Median earnings for males working full time Texas = $47,351 U.S. = $50,586Median earnings for females working full time Texas = $37,576U.S. = $40,626Poverty rateTexas = 15.6% U.S. = 14.0%26Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
Slide27Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2016
27Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2016 5-Year Estimates
Slide28Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016
28
Slide29Number and Percent of Texans Living Below Poverty, 1993 to 2016
29Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.
Slide30Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2016
30Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates.
Slide31Percent of the population with income below poverty, Texas counties, 2011-2015
31Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample
Slide32Unemployment and Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016
32
Slide33Poverty Rate by Educational Attainment, Texas, 2016
33Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates.
Slide34Educational Attainment, Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, 2016
U.S.
Texas
Tarrant County
Percent
high school graduate or higher
87.5%
82.9%
85.3%
Percent
bachelor's degree or higher
31.3%28.9%30.7%Percent HS or higher, NH White92.5%93.4%94.6%Percent HS or higher, Black85.2%89.1%90.7%Percent HS or higher, Asian86.6%87.6%83.8%Percent HS or higher, Hispanic 67.1%64.9%60.3%Percent BA or higher, NH White35.0%37.6%39.5%Percent BA or higher, Black20.9%23.1%22.7%Percent BA or higher, Asian53.2%56.7%41.7%Percent BA or higher, Hispanic 15.3%14.2%13.0%34
U.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples,
2016
Slide35Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015
35
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey,
1-Year Samples, 2008-2015
Slide36Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Slide37Trends in Latino Education in the U.S.Over the past decade, Hispanic high school dropout rates have dropped.
College enrollment among Hispanics is increased.There is still a large disparity between Hispanics and other groups in obtaining a bachelor’s degree.Hispanic college students attend public 2-year schools at higher rates than other groups.Hispanics are less likely than other groups to have student debt. Nearly all Latino youths (89%) believe a college degree is important for getting ahead in life. 37
Source:
Pew Research Center, 2016, 5 Facts about Latinos and Education and Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos Come of Age in America, 2009
Slide38Population Projections
Slide39Projected Population Growth in Texas,
2010-205039
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections
Slide40Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020
40
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Population Estimates
Slide41Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
41
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Slide42Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050
42
Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections
Slide43Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1980 to 2050
43Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario
Slide44Demographic Overview
Texas is experiencing significant growth.Population growth is not geographically evenly distributed.Texas continues to racially/ethnically diversify.The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging.The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas. A young and growing workforce could be a competitive edge for Texas and its growing metro areas.Demographic shifts may have serious implications for maintaining inclusive and equitable economic growth in the state.44
Slide4545
Office: (512) 936-3542
Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu
demographics.texas.gov
Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
@
TexasDemography