for Renewable Energy Based Mini Grids Providing Rural Off Grid Electrification AK Gerlach E Gaudchau C Cader Ch Breyer 2 nd International Conference on Micro Perspectives ID: 1018282
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1. Comprehensive Country Ranking for Renewable Energy Based Mini-Grids Providing Rural Off-Grid ElectrificationA.-K. Gerlach, E. Gaudchau, C. Cader, Ch. Breyer2nd International Conference on Micro Perspectivesfor Decentralized Energy Supply, 2013Berlin, February 28, 2013
2. Reiner Lemoine InstituteScientific research for an energy transition towards 100% renewable energiesReiner Lemoine Founder of the Reiner Lemoine-FoundationResearch focuses:Integrated energy systemsOptimization of energy systemsEnergy transition processesOff-grid energy systemsRE-mobilityIntegration of renewable energies into mobilityRenewable energy technologySmall wind power
3. one energy generator,one energy storage,one control unit,one consumer load andat a capacity range of kW – MWMini-grids consist of at leastMini-grids offer ideal conditions for a grid independent electricity supply.Renewable Energy Mini-Grids
4. Motivation for the Country Rankingrenewable energy based mini-grids are a key element for rural electrificationsustainable business models are needed for supplying hundreds of millions of peoplecomparison of all countries is a helpful indicator for players in the field
5. Method for the Country Rankingidentification of main criteria and respective sub-criteriamarket potentialpolitical and financial environmentexclusion criteriaelectrification rates over 95 % and less than 200,000 people in rural areas without electricityhigh political instabilityvery low diesel pricesweighting and scoring of each criterioncriteria not includedno quantification possiblenot available on a global scale
6. Consequences of Exclusion Criteria: Electrification electrification rate > 95 % andrural population without electricity < 200,000 people 98 countries excluded
7. travel warningAfghanistanHaitiIraqLibyaMaliSomaliaSyriaYementravel warning by German Ministry of Foreign Affairs (April 2012):partial travel warningAlgeriaCongo, DRGeorgiaJapanLebanon MauritaniaNigerNigeriaPakistanWest BankConsequences of Exclusion Criteria: Travel Warning
8. political stability (worldwide governance indicator) < 5th percentilecountrypercentile rankSomalia0,000Pakistan0,472Sudan0,943Afghanistan1,415Iraq1,887Yemen2,358Congo, DR 2,830Central African Republic3,302Nigeria3,774West Bank4,245Guinea4,717source: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Consequences of Exclusion Criteria: Political Stability
9. diesel price < 0.25 USD/ liter countrypump price for diesel 2010 [USD/liter]Venezuela0.01Iran0.02Saudi Arabia0.07Bahrain0.13Libya0.13Algeria0.19Qatar0.19Turkmenistan0.20Kuwait0.21Yemen0.23Brunei0.24Motivation (roughly):0.25 USD/l diesel price0.19 €/l diesel price0.019 €/kWhth diesel price0.06 €/kWhel diesel-onlyConsequences of Exclusion Criteria: Diesel Price
10. A: market potentialelectrification rate [World Bank, IEA, UNDP] rural population without access to electricity [calculated] pump price for diesel fuel [World Bank] B: political and financial environmentpolitical stability [World Bank] corruption perceptions index [Transparency Int] inflation [World Bank] ease of doing business index [World Bank] 50 %30 %15 %20 %15 %50 %20 %40 %60 %comparative evaluation of target countries based on statistic data with regard to market potential plus political and financial environment used criteria and and weighting factors:Comparative Country Ranking: Criteria and Weighting
11. Good political and financial environment combined with high electrification needs are to be found especially in South and East Africa.Results of the Country Ranking: All Criteria
12. Results of the Country Ranking: Sub-CriteriaMarket PotentialPolitical and Financial EnvironmentKey insight:most top countries of market potential show low ranking for political and financial environmentand vice verca
13. rankcountryelectrification rate [%]rural population without access to electricityworldwide governance indicators: political stability [%]pump price for diesel fuel [USD/liter]GDP per capita [USD]1Rwanda58.5 mio41.51.625302Zambia198.0 mio63.71.521,2503South Africa758.6 mio44.31.147,2804Botswana450.7 mio78.30.977,4005Namibia341.2 mio71.71.095,3306Ghana619.1 mio47.60.831,3207Kenya1629.9 mio13.71.277908Uganda927.8 mio15.61.115109United Republic of Tanzania1432.3 mio45.81.1952010Peru865.9 mio20.31.105,400top 10 countries:Results of the Country Ranking
14. Rwanda – no 1 Country in the Ranking
15. in general:large market sizevery good financial environment for foreign investors energy sector:urgent needs to expand capacities, much imports, high tariffstarget: 1,000 MW electric power capacity in 2017 (90 MW in 2011) investment in energy production with methane gas (large potential in lake Kivu), hydro power, geothermal and solar power in terms of renewable based mini-grids:very low rural electrification rateindependent power producer are allowed to work on- or off-grid“social tariffs need to be put in place to cater for the affordability of rural citizens”focussing energy sector, rural electrification and investment possibilities[pictures: Wikimedia Commons]Rwanda – Summary Country Profile
16. Summaryseveral countries offer good preconditions for RE-based mini-gridstop ranked countries are located in southern and eastern Africalarge market potential and poor political and financial environment are often coupled – and vice versacountries have to be checked in detail for characteristics not included in the ranking
17. Thanks for your attention. … and in particular to SMA Stiftungsverbund gemeinnützige GmbH