Patrick Cirenza University of Cambridge PONI Capstone Conference 2017 Outline What is the Analogy and Why is it Important Questions Sources and Definitions Two Research Questions Interviews ID: 1020857
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1. An Evaluation of the Analogy Between Nuclear and Cyber DeterrencePatrick CirenzaUniversity of CambridgePONI Capstone Conference 2017
2. OutlineWhat is the Analogy and Why is it Important?Questions, Sources, and DefinitionsTwo Research QuestionsInterviewsKey DefinitionsA Strategic Deterrent?CharacteristicsEvaluationFinal ThoughtsConclusionThe Future: Three PathsFurther Research Opportunities
3. What is the Analogy and Why is it Important?
4. “I’d guess I’d call it the 21st century nuclear weapons equivalent.” – Former Secretary of State John Kerry on cyber weapons in his confirmation hearing“If Internet security cannot be controlled, it’s not an exaggeration to say that the effects could be no less than a nuclear bomb.” – General Fang Fenghui, Chief of General Staff for the PLA“The single biggest existential threat that’s out there, I think, is cyber” – Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen
5. Two QuestionsDo strategic cyber weapons, like nuclear weapons, constitute a revolution in military affairs?Do strategic cyber weapons have the strategic deterrent characteristics of nuclear weapons?
6. Interviews ConductedDr. Thomas Schelling, RAND CorporationDr. Martin Libicki, RAND CorporationDr. Siegfried Hecker, Director of Los Alamos National LaboratoriesDr. Sidney Drell, Deputy Director SLAC National Accelerator LaboratoryDr. Jackie Schneider, Elliot School of International AffairsMark Ghilarducci, Director of California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Colonel Matteo Martemucci, 318th Cyberspace Operations Group, 688th Cyberspace WingColonel James Wakefield IV, Air ForceDr. Emily Goldman, Cyber CommandDr. Michael Warner, Command Historian, Cyber Command (on background)Kirk McConnell, Staff Member on Senate Armed Services CommitteeKevin Gates, Staff Member on House Armed Services CommitteeJim Lewis, Center for Strategic and International StudiesKim Zetter, WiredBarack Obama, President of the United StatesRobert Gates, Secretary of DefenseBill Perry, Secretary of DefenseGeneral Michael Hayden, Director of National Security Agency and Central Intelligence AgencyAdmiral Cecil Haney, Commander of Strategic CommandGeneral Bob Kehler, Commander of Strategic CommandAdmiral James Ellis, Commander of Strategic CommandKenneth Chennault, Chairman and CEO of American ExpressAnthony Earley, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Pacific Gas and ElectricChris Painter, Cyber Coordinator for State DepartmentMichelle Markoff, Deputy Cyber Coordinator for State DepartmentDr. Phyllis Schneck, Deputy Undersecretary for Cybersecurity and Communications Department of Homeland SecurityDr. Robert Jervis, Columbia University
7. Key Definitions: DeterrenceFigure 1: Hundley’s First Set of RMA StagesHundley, Richard. "Past Revolutions, Future Transformations." The RAND Corporation. Accessed December 5, 2014. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1029.pdf. 22.Figure 3: Metz and Kievit’s RMA StagesMetz, Steven, and James Kievit. "Strategy and The Revolution in Military Affairs: From Theory to Policy." Strategic Studies Institute. Accessed December 4, 2014. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ssi/stratrma.pdf. 13.Prevention of an action by fear of the consequences created by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction
8. Key Definitions: Strategic Cyber WeaponMalware that irreversibly neutralizes centers of gravity in cyber-dependent economic, military, and political systems and infrastructure
9. Severity of Cyber ThreatsIntensityFrequencyStrategic Cyber WeaponsCyber TerrorismCyber EspionageCyber VandalismState Capability Cutoff
10. Strategic Deterrent Characteristics
11. Characteristics of Strategic Cyber Weapons
12. Conclusion
13. Future Pathways and Research
14. “Make no mistake, this weapon will change absolutely nothing.” Hundley, Richard. "Past Revolutions, Future Transformations." The RAND Corporation. Accessed December 5, 2014. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1029.pdf. 44.-French Director General of Infantry, commenting on the machine gun before the French parliament, 1910Q&A