Abby and Jon Winkleried Professor Professor Political Science Vanderbilt University CoDirector Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions CoEditor Quarterly Journal of Political Science ID: 622460
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Joshua D. ClintonAbby and Jon Winkleried ProfessorProfessor, Political Science, Vanderbilt UniversityCo-Director, Center for the Study of Democratic InstitutionsCo-Editor, Quarterly Journal of Political ScienceSenior Election Analyst, NBC News (NY,NY)
the 2016 PresidentialCampaign:Where We’ve Been, Where We’re GOINGSlide2Slide3
There is a lot of “breaking noise” in campaign coverage.
Lots (and lots) of numbers, but possibly little meaning.Rules, Institutions, and Structure Matter.
Things to think about:Slide4
The Role of the MediaMedia: profit-maximizing or public-maximizing?The media want a story that generates interest (audience).Desire to be “objective” but also critical.Need politicians to appear.
Easier/cheaper to let the two-sides compete.Conflict results in “breaking news”Slide5
Who was covered?
http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-presidential-primaries/Slide6
What was covered?Slide7
Correctly predicted every presidential election starting in 1916.Slide8
1936 Literary Digest poll
Pop: 44,000,000 voters
10 million asked, 2.4 million answered.
Final Estimate: Landon 57% FDR 43%
Actual Vote: FDR 62% Landon 38%Slide9
DemocratsSlide10
Timing and “Momentum”Slide11Slide12
March 13Slide13
And now, for something completely different….Slide14Slide15Slide16Slide17Slide18Slide19
And very Accurate….Slide20Slide21
The General ElectionSlide22Slide23
1. National Turnout iS Relatively Stable
Source: Current Population Survey, Validated VotesSlide24
Source: National Exit PollsSlide25
2. Partisanship is an Anchor (DOWN!)
Source: NBC/Survey Monkey Weekly TrackerSlide26
Candidate Choice by Party Identification
Among TN Registered Voters
If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll
September 2016
N=1,000;
MoE
: +/- 3.7
%Slide27Slide28Slide29
The importance of partisanship
Godfather’s pizza index: [-100,100]Slide30Slide31
Clinton & DemocratsSlide32
Trump & republicansSlide33
3
. Structural Features DominateSlide34Slide35
“October Surprise(s)?”Slide36Slide37Slide38Slide39Slide40Slide41Slide42
Post-election:Republican EditionSlide43