To move forward we must recognize that in the midst of a magnificent diversity of cultures and life forms we are one human family and one Earth community with a common destiny We must join together to bring forth a sustainable global society founded on respect for nature universal human rights ID: 780970
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Slide1
We stand at a critical moment in Earth’s history, a time when humanity must choose its future. As the world becomes increasingly interdependent and fragile, the future at once holds great peril and great promise.
To move forward we must recognize that in the midst of a magnificent diversity of cultures and life forms we are one human family and one Earth community
with a common destiny.
We must join together to bring forth a sustainable global society founded on respect for nature, universal human rights, economic justice, and a culture of peace.
- The Earth Charter (2000)
Slide2The Growing Interest in Sustainability
From XKCD
Slide3Can We Really Have a Sustainable Society?
Part of the monthly series:“The World Future We Need”Mike Ignatowski Oct 16th, 2016Mike.Ignatowski@gmail.comUnderstandingTheFuture.com
Slide4What can you expect from these classes?
Satisfy some curiosity - create more questionsUnderstanding new technology in the newsDeal with the unsettling rates of change Understanding “the big picture” of nature“Big Picture view” of social justice topicsA chance to share thoughts and ask questions
Slide5What is
this class about?It’s Not about: Recycling, backyard gardens, busses & bike lanes Sustainable eco-villagesLifestyle changesIt is about: Understanding key big issuesWhat makes societies sustainableMajor trends and initiativesThe major changes needed
Slide6Is the current
“Sustainability Movement” adequate?Feeling good about small acts doesn’t help anyone. Only one-quarter of all consumption is by individuals. The rest is taken up by industry, agribusiness, the military, governments and corporations.The reality is that even if one company eliminates its carbon footprint entirely — as Microsoft admirably pledged to do — global warming roars on… us we’re failing to deal with the problem at anywhere near sufficient scaleDon’t talk to me about sustainability… There is a monster standing over us, with a footprint so large it can trample a whole planet underfoot... This monster is Industrial Civilization. I refuse to sustain the monster.
Slide7What is sustainable development?
Living within the carrying capacity of the eco-system without destroying or degrading the natural environment. Live responsibly, so that the resources of the planet will support many generations to comeMeet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs
Slide8What is sustainable?
Sustainability ≠ StaticHow can a dynamic / growing system be sustainable?“Sustainable” depends on the time frameYearsDecades
Slide9Sustainable Development
Comments from Jeffrey SachsSustainable development is probably the most important issue we face.We are not even close to being on a course of sustainable development in many areas.This should be the #1 issue being talked about
Slide10Beyond Just Global Warming
Slide11Why sustainability
is the big issue of our time
Environmental
Economic
Social
Inequality
Water
Food /
Agriculture
Transportation
Energy
Trade
Business /
Investment
Debt
Health Care
Education
Immigration
Sustainability
Climate
Stability, Security
& Justice
Emails
Charitable Foundations
Groping
Inc. Tax
Returns
Jobs / Retirement
War /
Crime
Natural Resources
Social Capital
Governance
Slide12Overshoot and Collapse
Renewable Resource UsageSustainable Resource LevelConsider an Island Environment
Slide13Overshoot and Collapse
Sustainable Resource Level
Slide14Overshoot and Collapse
Sustainable Resource Level
Slide15Overshoot and Collapse
New Sustainable Resource Level
Slide16Overshoot and Collapse
Sustainable Resource Level
Zero
Slide17Limits to Growth
“Limits to Growth” – 1972 Book
Slide18Flourishing and
Collapse of the Ancient MayaCivilizationWith a computer simulation of impact on environment
Slide19Peak
oilConventional oil production peaked in 2005Oil prices climbed rapidly ($145 / barrel in 2008). Fracking kicks in. We are passing “peak fracked oil”Eagle Ford Shale Oil production
Slide20Peak Water ?
We are using much more than is being replenishedWater tables are falling drastically around the world3-10 ft per year in IndiaThe great Yellow River in China runs dry before reaching the sea most days100s of millions of Africans will face water shortages in under 20 yearsWater Table Falling in the US Farm Belt
Slide21Peak Rice / Peak Wheat?
Arable land is declining Development and soil erosion….Water usage is already past its sustainable limit and will declineOil available for fertilizer production is peakingThis is a long term problem
Slide22Agenda 21:
Non-binding agreement on sustainable developmentSigned in 1992 by H.W. Bush Millennium Development Goals2000 20158 Development GoalsBrazil, China, India = biggest success storiesGoal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerGoal 2: Achieve universal primary educationGoal 3: Gender equality and empower womenGoal 4: Reduce child mortality ratesGoal 5: Improve maternal healthGoal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria…Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainabilityGoal 8: Global partnership for developmentUnited Nations Programs
Slide23Sustainable Development Goals
2015 2030United Nations Programs
Slide24Country
CO2 per person(tons)Quality of LifeSocial Progress IndexUnited States17.5616Australia16.8110Canada14.736Norway11.741Germany9.114Denmark8.178United Kingdom8.01011Iceland6.194France5.821Sweden5.622Switzerland
5.053So What do We Have to Give Up?
Slide25Economic Growth
Improving Quality of LifeDecoupling from environmental impact
Slide26Decoupling from environmental impact
Slide27Decoupling from environmental impact
Kuznet Environmental CurveValid for:Many forms of pollution DeforestationNot Valid for (yet):Energy useLand use
Slide28U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Peak 200512% drop by 2012
Slide29Improving Quality of Life &
Decoupling from environmental impactNon-resource intensive ways to improve our quality of lifeEducation, ScienceInformation-economyArts / entertainmentPersonal developmentCommunity developmentPersonal relationshipsHealth (physical and mental)Physical recreationSafety, SecurityIncreased social and economic justice Increased opportunityEnvironmental restoration
Slide30Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) vs GDP
Slide31Slide32Long Term Sustainability
Slide338 Billion years from now
Slide34Characteristics of a Sustainable Civilization
Decarbonize: energy production, industry, and transportationManaging the Global CommonsOceans, Atmosphere, BiosphereTake regenerative stepsManage economic disruptions and incentivesSocial Justice / GovernanceAdvance our knowledge and technology
Slide35Messages of Hope
94% believe the climate is getting warmer73% due to humans (~50% Republicans agree)87% want EPA to reduce greenhouse gas emissions84% support accelerating development of renewable energy72% of Republicans support thisPublic supports carbon tax by 3:1 marginPublic supports stronger renewable energy goals by 5:1
Slide36Next Month’s Topic
Why this is the most important time to be alive in human history.Other Future Topics:Evolution of cooperationTechnology and unemploymentOptimism - Why 2015 was the best year in the history of humanityThe Great Turning - Ideas from Joanna Macy and David KortenThe changing myths of our place in the universeExponentially increasing rates of change and the implicationsThe modern problem of stone-age instincts and supernormal stimuliMoral instincts, tribalism, meaning, and religionSystems view of the world and emerging propertiesEconomic growth, past, future, and
inequality"Managing the Commons" - Moving beyond the old categories of capitalism, socialism, and communism towards what's really importantThe future of Artificial Intelligence and its implicationsThe future of Synthetic Biology and its implications
Slide37Why I’m doing this
UnderstandingTheFuture.comWhat we’re going to do tonight
Slide38Contact Information
Mike IgnatowskiEmail: mike.ignatowski@gmail.comBlog: UnderstandingTheFuture.com(These charts will be available on my blog)
Slide39Can We Really Have a Sustainable
Society?(Here)
Slide40Can We Really Have a Sustainable Society
?
Slide41Can We Really Have a Sustainable Society
?