Marissa Reno | mdreno@sandia.gov - PowerPoint Presentation

1. Marissa Reno | mdreno@sandia.govVince Tidwell | vctidwe@sandia.govLen Necefer | lenecef@sandia.govCollaborative System Dynamics Modeling & Analysisfor Integrated Resource Planning in Indian CountrySAND2014-17535 PE

2. OutlineWHAT is Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Modeling & Tool Development?WHY Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Modeling & Tool Development?HOW do we do Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Modeling & Tool Development?RESULTS of Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Modeling & Tool DevelopmentAPPLICATIONS of Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Modeling & Tool DevelopmentGeneralReal case studies (SNL Decision Support Systems)Energy System Modeling (presentation by Len Necefer of Carnegie Mellon)ROLLS/RESPONSIBILITIES of participants in the process of CSDM&TDStakeholders (i.e., Tribal members/entities)DOENational Lab personnelDELIVERABLES resulting from Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Modeling & Tool DevelopmentSAND2014-17535 PE

3. Value PropositionWhat could a collaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling process do for your tribe?Help you deal with resource challenges and strategic planning (e.g., economic plan, water use plan, energy plan) in a transparent, inclusive manner.Assist you in identifying and evaluating resource development opportunities.Enable you to evaluate tradeoffs between multiple costs and benefits (e.g., economic benefit vs environmental costs vs community impacts.SAND2014-17535 PE

4. Collaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | WHATIterative process that engages decision-makers and stakeholders inProblem definitionTool developmentIdentify metrics & variablesSystem conceptualization and quantitative representationUser interface developmentTool use and reviewTool use and interpretation of resultsSAND2014-17535 PE

5. Involves stakeholders and decision makers in development of a shared understanding of the systemShared process improves consensus in the productIncreases transparencyStimulates communication between different departments/interest groupsCollaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | WHYSAND2014-17535 PE

6. Stakeholder advisory groupSubject matter and local expertsCollaborative Modeling TeamPublicPreferences & informationDecision supportStakeholder groupsDecision MakersCollaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | HOWSAND2014-17535 PE

7. 7Collaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | RESULTSInteractive, user-friendly inputAllows for real time construction of competing development strategiesSAND2014-17535 PE

8. 8Collaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | RESULTSInteractive, user-friendly graphical outputAllows real time comparison of alternatives, education of stakeholders and policy makers, and development of rigorous, quantitative development plansSAND2014-17535 PE

9. 9Collaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | APPLICATIONSSAND2014-17535 PE

10. SNL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSSAND2014-17535 PE

11. SNL Decision Support SystemsActive Projects (2010-2013)Past Projects (1992-2010)DomesticMicrogrid Reliability and CostEnergy, Power & Water for Transmission PlanningWater, Energy and Carbon SequestrationSunCityElectric Grid Storage ValuationAlternative Liquid FuelsGila Basin-Az Water Settlement ModelVirtual Water Market for Drought AmmeliorationTransition to Renewable Energy – County of MauiCut-off Grade Determination for Potash Mining in NMV&V of VISION Civilian Nuclear Fuel Cycle ModelU.S. Energy and Greenhouse GasSandia-GM Biofuel DeploymentRenewable Energy Systems & LearningString of PearlsMiddle Rio Grande Cooperative Water PlanningNambe Pueblo Water BudgetHydrogen FuturesBarton Springs Urban Growth and Groundwater SustainabilityUS-Mexico Border PermeabilityUpper Rio Hondo Water AvailabilityLong Term Biofuels FeasibilityLong Term Algae Biofuels FeasibilityClimate Change Risk AssessmentWillamette Basin Temperature TMDL TradingInsurgency as a Business EnterpriseInternationalStrategy for Water and Land Resources Planning in IraqUS-Canada Algae Biofuel Co-LocationLibyan Water-Energy-FoodStrategic Water Allocation Demonstration for the Canterbury Region of New ZealandSpent Fuel Management – Taipower TaiwanChina Energy and Greenhouse GasIndia Energy and Greenhouse GasLong-Term Electricity Generation Cost SimulationIraq Water-Energy-Food SimulationUS/Mexico Water ManagementThe Rainy RiverSAND2014-17535 PE

12. Middle Rio Grande Cooperative Water ModelSAND2014-17535 PE

13. Middle Rio Grande Cooperative Water ModelA tool developed collaboratively by the Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly, the Mid-Region Council of Governments, interested public, and Sandia National Laboratories.Constructed to evaluate the long-term impact and costs associated with the 44 alternative actions.Alternatives grouped into 8 broad categories:UrbanBosqueDroughtReservoirsInterbasin TransfersDesalinationAgriculturePopulation GrowthSAND2014-17535 PE

14. Middle Rio Grande Model DemoSAND2014-17535 PE

15. Iraq Water Systems Planning ModelCollaborative systems model developed to address issues such asTradeoffs between reservoir development and ecologic restorationTradeoffs between water efficiency improvements and salinityLikely impacts of upstream reservoir and agricultural developmentSAND2014-17535 PE

16. Sandia’s Dr. Howard Passell teaching modeling techniques and implementation in Powersim Studio ®Developing the conceptual model16Iraq Water Systems Planning Model |Capacity DevelopmentCollaborative modeling with 7 Iraqi engineers2-way information exchangeDevelopment of conceptual modelIraqi-built module in modelSAND2014-17535 PE

17. Example agricultural options at national levelIraq Water Systems Planning Model |Example Policy OptionsSAND2014-17535 PE

18. Iraq Water Systems Planning Model DemoSAND2014-17535 PE

19. Australian Algal Biomass AssessmentDeveloping the conceptual model19SAND2014-17535 PE

20. Australian Algal Biomass AssessmentDeveloping the conceptual model20Where could you grow algae using nutrients from waste water and carbon dioxide from industrial emissions if you don’t want to move the CO2 farther than 100km?SAND2014-17535 PE

21. Australian Algal Biomass Model DemoSAND2014-17535 PE

22. WaterEnergy & Carbon Sequestrationsimulation modelDeveloping the conceptual modelGeologic Saline FormationH2O Treatment & Use(1) CO2 CaptureFormation Assessment & CO2 Storage(3) H2O Extraction22Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storageHow much would it cost for any power plant in the U.S.?Where could the captured CO2 be stored?How much could plant water demands be offset by removing water from storage formation?SAND2014-17535 PE

23. WECSsim StructureDeveloping the conceptual model Plant type CO2 generatedPower Plant ModuleCO2 Storage Module Extracted H2Ocapacity Extracted H2O quality Treated cooling H2O Energy required for H2O extraction and treatmentH2O Extraction Module Mass CO2 to be sequesteredCO2 Capture Module Base LCOE Carbon transport & sequestration costs Water production transport and treatment costs Carbon capture & compression costs Parasitic energy Water demand changePower Costs Module23SAND2014-17535 PE

24. Energy system modeling for American Indian NationsLen NeceferPh.D Candidate Engineering and Public PolicyCarnegie Mellon UniversitySAND2014-17535 PE

25. Important questions facing tribesAffordable Energy: How can we provide the least-expensive electricity in the future?Regulation: What impact could taxes, subsidies, rules have on future development?New Technology: How can we evaluate or compare new technologies?Environment: How can we project future environmental impacts from energy resource development?Cost-effectiveness: How can we most efficiency develop our resources?SAND2014-17535 PE

26. Energy systems are complexIncandescent => CFL90% of energy of incandescent lights go to heatCan increase CO2 emissions in certain parts of the countryColder areas of country with electric heatersRegions where electricity comes from hydro + natural gasCFLs contain mercuryOverall reduction in mercury from burning less coal“Assessing Regional Differences in Lighting Heat Replacement Effects in Residential Buildings across the United States” Min, Azevedo, and Hakkarainen, 2013 (In review)SAND2014-17535 PE

27. Energy modeling systems are useful for strategic energy planningOptimization tools for long-run energy planningTechnical jargon: Optimization models that use a least-cost NPV function / Utility maximization function as their objective.Energy technologies are deployed to meet energy balance constraints over specified time periodsAll models are approximations- “All models are wrong, but some are useful” - George E. P. BoxUseful for energy planning and where There are multiple resources available to develop (Cost-effective strategies)Complex energy systems: Commercial/Residential/Industrial demandsUnclear what the effect policies would have on the entire systemSAND2014-17535 PE

28. Model outputs useful for policy questionsEnvironmental Lifecycle Assessment (LCA)Criteria Emissions: Mercury, PM, NOx, SOx, etcWater use and land transformationLevelized cost of electricity / energy (LCOE) – Equal basis of comparisonRequired investment costs in generation capacityPotential Revenue GeneratedPhoto Source: Four Corners Generating Station - Durango HeraldSAND2014-17535 PE

29. Big-picture optionsScale: Entire tribe or nationMARKAL/TIMES, MESSAGE, POLES IEA - Energy Technology Systems Analysis ProgramUsed in 37 countriesOften these have significant price tags and require non-trivial amounts of training to useNot the most accessible for tribesOpen Source Options: TEMOA – Tools for Energy Modeling Optimization and AssessmentSimilar to US EPA MARKAL Little to no upfront cost, intended to allow for easy accessOpen source allows for models to be externally verifiedEnergy system is expressed by algebraically linked processes (e.g transformation of coal to electricity for residential use)SAND2014-17535 PE

30. Example Model Representation (TEMOA)Photo Source: TEMOA Project www.temoaproject.org SAND2014-17535 PE

31. Data Intensive Models Models are only as good as the data they are givenRequisite data: Energy consumption from sector(s) of interestCommercial, industrial, residential, transportationHeating/Cooling, Water Heating, Lighting, Refrigeration, Appliances, etc.Energy resources / technology available to meet demandIdentify and quantify the resources which are considered being developed: e.g. Renewables/Non-renewable, Large and small scaleTechnologies that could fit within current and future constraints: e.g. cost, regulationsExisting infrastructure and technologySAND2014-17535 PE

32. Large gaps in energy consumption data for American Indian NationsEnergy Consumption data sources do not break down by ethnicity: EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) EIA Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) Data points that are on tribal land have high uncertaintySignificant differences in energy useNavajo Nation: 50% of houses need significant repair (5% for United States)Electricity use ~20% lower than US Average (EIA, 2000)Tribes can quantify energy consumption on their own land (Critical)Utilities (Tribal / non-tribal) Developing own energy consumption surveysCalculating using simplifying assumptionsSAND2014-17535 PE

33. Calculating Navajo Residential Energy Demand Projects (2010-2035)Estimating population growth and size of homes 1.5% Annual population growth + outflowNavajo homes are smaller than US average ~900-1300ft2 vs 2100ft2 USNon-trivial portion of homes off gridHeating and cooling coefficients for homes (BTU/ft2/CCD) US households is not an adequate reflection Half of homes require significant repairs - as compared to 5% for the United States Available heating technologyMajority of homes use wood heating (both on / off grid)Some electric, some propane/ natural gasEmissions an health impactsCalculations made for water heating, cooling, lighting, appliancesSAND2014-17535 PE

34. Example ScenariosStatus Quo Generation TechnologiesImported ElectricityCentralized PVDistributed PV**Centralized WindDistributed Wind**Diesel Generation**New Transmission** ** Only for homes off the gridNo Imported ElectricityGeneration TechnologiesPC Power PlantCoal Gasification (IGCC)Natural Gas Combined-CycleCentralized PVDistributed PV**Centralized WindDistributed Wind**Diesel Generation**New Transmission**Residential Energy DemandsSpace HeatingWater HeatingCoolingLightingNatural Gas AppliancesElectric AppliancesSAND2014-17535 PE

35. Energy System Preliminary ResultsSAND2014-17535 PECoal IGCC chosen as primary source of electricity primarily due to efficiency and low cost of Navajo CoalLCOE – 0.132 $/kWhImported electricity is the least expensive option. (EIA Projections)LCOE - 0.119 $/kWhPurchased electricity least expensive optionOff-grid electricity met by diesel generators, solar, windCoal IGCC largest source – cheap coal

36. Impact Assessments over modeling time periodCO2e (tonnes)Land Use (km2)H2O Wdwl(M gal)Criteria Emissions (Tonnes)COSOxNOxPM2.5PM10VOCNo Imp. Elec.526,50971293213504052351373704813Status Quo 421,86300210.069123520 year - GWP - United NationsTonnesExample representation of 7km2 land use for stakeholders Source: Google Earth ProSAND2014-17535 PE

37. Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysisHow sensitive are the results to changes in variables?Simple example: population growth, heating coefficients, technology performance, etc.Unknown relationships within the energy systemExternalized costs of energy not included in this analysisLand and water transformationsSocial costs of emissions from health impacts (AP2 $/ton)Significantly change resultsSAND2014-17535 PE

38. ConclusionsEnergy modeling systems are useful tools*When supplied with accurate data and relationshipsModel is transparent and accessibleCulturally relevant outputs: Impacts on grazing / sacred sitesCollecting energy consumption data is requisite a step in strategic energy planningAbility to explore implications of long term energy planning with reduced costSAND2014-17535 PE

39. AcknowledgementsTribal Energy ProgramCarnegie Mellon UniversityPaulina Jaramillo, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Mitch SmallNorth Carolina State UniversityJoseph DiCarolisDine Policy Institute at Dine CollegeUS EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Fellowship ProgramSAND2014-17535 PE

40. Extra SlidesSAND2014-17535 PE

41. 2. Analytical Tool for Stakeholder EngagementA tool for individuals to develop their own electricity fleet mixes.Get instant feedback on environmental impacts and electricity bills1-25 years into the futureDeveloped from the 2014 - Annual Energy Outlook / US EPA MARKAL Database / RECS / CBECSCalculated residential/commercial/governmental energy demandsDoes a tool informed by concerns / values of the community can increase interest and trust in the decision making around energy resource management?SAND2014-17535 PE

42. Development of Analytical ToolInterviews guided the direction of the interface in the following waysDeveloping tool both in English and NavajoOutcomes of energy development focus on 4 main areasWater UseLand Transformation Health Impacts from PollutionGreenhouse gas emissionsEconomic outcomes, while significant, are not the largest concern from stakeholdersSAND2014-17535 PE

43. Interface to change electricity mixSAND2014-17535 PE

44. Outcomes relevant to stakeholdersSAND2014-17535 PE

45. STAKEHOLDERSPersonnel resourcesWillingness to participate in model development processWillingness to share* data and informationDOEFacilitate interaction between stakeholders and technical expertsNATIONAL LABSTechnical expertsLead model developmentBuild capacity, if desiredCollaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | ROLLS & RESPONSIBILITIESSAND2014-17535 PE

46. STAKEHOLDERSPersonnel resourcesWillingness to participate in model development processWillingness to share* data and informationDOEFacilitate interaction between stakeholders and technical expertsNATIONAL LABSTechnical expertsLead model developmentBuild capacity, if desiredCollaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | ROLLS & RESPONSIBILITIESSAND2014-17535 PE

47. Improved understanding of resource opportunity/challangeModelReportPresentation(s)/Briefing(s)Collaborative, stakeholder-driven modeling and tool development | DELIVERABLESSAND2014-17535 PE

48. QUESTIONSSAND2014-17535 PE