Cornerstone Government Affairs September 20 2016 Dems Own 90 of Electoral College Votes Democratic Stronghold States and Electoral College Votes Won 19922012 Dems Have Won 242 Electoral Votes Six Times in a Row ID: 536376
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Slide1
Federal Update
Cornerstone Government Affairs
September 20,
2016Slide2
Dems “Own” 90 % of Electoral College Votes
Democratic Stronghold States and Electoral College Votes Won: 1992-2012
Dems Have Won 242 Electoral Votes Six Times in a Row
+8
+3
+8
+8
+8
+6
+2
+3
+2
+1
55
7
12
10
10
20
16
20
29
3
4
MA:11
CT: 7
NJ:14
RI: 4
DE: 3
MD: 10
DC: 3
HI: 4
Analysis
Since 1992, Democratic candidates have won18 states and D.C. have voted Democratic six times in a row, adding up to 242 electoral votes
―
89.6% of the 270 votes needed for victory
more than 300 electoral votes 4 out of 6 timesSlide3
Obama
Romney
Barack Obama (D)
Mitt Romney (R)
6
18
29
13
9
6
10
16
20
15
4
2012 Presidential Election Battleground States: Electoral College
Of 11 Battleground States, Romney Won Only NC in 2012Slide4Slide5
Republicans Currently Hold the Five Senate Seats
Most Likely to Flip in 2016
Hotline’s 2016 Senate Rankings
WI
IL
NH
PA
OH
Illinois:
Sen. Mark Kirk (R) is trailing in polls in a blue state, and is lacking in support from outside spending groups. Kirk has publicly disavowed Trump in a TV ad, seeking to distance himself from his party.
Wisconsin:
Former senator Russ Feingold (D) is running an aggressive campaign against Ron Johnson (R), but Johnson has ample support from outside spending groups.
New Hampshire:
New Hampshire
voted Democratic by 6 and 9 points in the last two presidential elections, so Kelly
Ayotte
(R) is likely to need a significant number of voters supporting both her and Hillary Clinton to win, which won’t be easy against the state’s current governor Maggie Hassan (D).
Pennsylvania:
National Democrats spent $5 million to get their chosen candidate, 2014 gubernatorial candidate Katie
McGinty
(D), through a messy nominating fight. Pat Toomey (R) has a lot of money to spend in his effort to brand himself as independent from his party.
Ohio:
Rob Portman (R) sits on slightly safer ground than some colleagues, thanks to an incredible fundraising year and a proactive reelection campaign, but he still faces a former governor with near universal name recognition, Ted Strickland (D).
6. Nevada:
Open (D)
7. Florida:
Marco Rubio (R)
8. North Carolina:
Richard Burr (R)
9. Missouri:
Roy Blunt (R)
10. Arizona:
John McCain (R)
■
Seat Held by Republican
■
Seat Held by Democrat
NV
AZ
MS
NC
FLSlide6
Which Senate Seats Are Most Likely to Flip?
1. Illinois
Hotline’s 2016 Senate Rankings
Mark Kirk (R)
Ron Johnson (R)
Kelly
Ayotte
(R)
Pat Toomey (R)
Rob Portman (R)
Not enough polling
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Pennsylvania
5. Ohio
State
Incumbent
Challenger
Polling
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Russ Feingold (D)
Maggie Hassan (D)
Katie
McGinty (D)Ted Strickland (D)Slide7
Federal Appropriations
Priority
FY 2016
FY 2017
Enacted
President’s Request
APLU Request
House
Senate
Smith-Lever 3(b)-(c)
300.000
300.000
304.000300.000300.000
Hatch-Act243.701
243.701256.201
243.701243.701
Evans-Allen (1890s Research)54.18558.000
60.500
54.18554.185
1890 Institutions Extension45.620
48.35049.350
45.62045.620
McIntire-Stennis33.961
33.96135.50033.961
33.961AFRI
350.000375.000
700.000375.000375.000
Land-Grant NIFA Priorities ($Millions)Slide8
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015FY 2016FY16 - FY 10 Dollar ChangeFY 16 - FY 10 % ChangeAFRI 262.482
264.470 264.470 276.423 316.409 325.000 350.000 87.518 33%Hatch
215.000 236.334 236.334 218.342 243.701 243.701 243.701 28.701
13%McIntire-Stennis29.000 32.934 32.934 30.427 33.961
33.961 33.961 4.961 17%Smith-Lever 297.500 293.911
294.000 271.068 300.000 300.000 300.000 2.500 1%Evans-Allen
48.500 50.898 50.898 47.023 52.485 52.485 54.185
5.685 12%1890s Extension42.677 42.592 42.592 39.270
43.920 43.920 45.620 2.943 7%
Research and Education Activities
788.243
700.140 705.599
738.638 772.559
786.874 819.685 31.442 4%Extension Activities494.923 480.092
475.183 475.854 469.191 471.691 475.891 (19.032)-4%Integrated Activities
60.022 37.000 21.482 21.482 35.317
30.900 30.900 (29.122)-49%Total NIFA
1,343.188 1,217.232 1,202.264 1,235.974 1,277.067 1,289.465
1,326.476 (16.712)-1%APLU Priorities vs. Total NIFA