Douglas Macdonald Format What decides subnational lead or veto role Why do federated systems have to allocate reductions Ontario and Canadian national policy Ontario and Canadian national climatechange policy ID: 1021101
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1. Ontario renewable energy and climate change policy in the Canadian Intergovernmental and North American contextsDouglas Macdonald
2. FormatWhat decides subnational lead or veto role?Why do federated systems have to allocate reductions?Ontario and Canadian national policyOntario and Canadian national climate-change policyThe likelihood of an Ontario lead roleThe way forward
3. Subnational lead or veto?Environmental threat = lead, eg Sweden acid rainEconomic cost = veto, eg Saudi Arabia, AlbertaLow economic cost = lead, eg Germany 1997Internal politics, government ideology also factors, may = lead role or vetoDesire reduce competitiveness problems, gain political cover = lead role, eg California, WCI
4. Why must federations allocate?Climate change a global collective action problemFederated countries/systems (EU) can only have one target in international regimeGeographically concentrated sources means cost differ geographicallyRelevant subnational governments defend their economic interest, play veto roleThat can only be overcome by bargainingBargaining can only happen if there is explicit recognition of the need to allocate, reach agreement on equitable cost sharing
5. Ontario and Canadian national policy1867 Canada created by the Ontario-Quebec axis; industrial heartland, agricultural hinterland1960s Premier John Robarts, Ontario and Canadian interest seen as identical1982 Ontario support for Trudeau repatriation constitution1990s Premier Bob Rae, Ontario seen to have a separate interest2015 Premier Wynne, return to Quebec alliance, no identification with national interest
6. Ontario and national climate-change policy1985 federal-provincial acid rain program, Ontario resistance, then action for domestic reasons1990 – 2002 feds and provinces on the climate policy highway, Ontario “on the service road”2000 Ontario sabotaged NCCP Framework Agreement, burden sharing2003-15 coal phase-out, renewable FIT, purely domestic, not related to national policyParticipant Council of Federation CES, but lead role Alberta Ontario has not played a lead national role to date
7. The likelihood of an Ontario lead roleNo particular environmental threatNo particularly high costInternal politics, government ideology only work if Liberal or NDP governmentReduce competitiveness, Ontario focus cross-border not just within CanadaAs a province, lacks sticks or carrots to influence other provinces Low likelihood
8. The way forwardProvinces are unilaterally taking lead action, eg BC carbon tax; but not many “lead points” to date on national co-ordination; closest has been Quebec, Liberal federal governmentsPowerful veto point, the higher per capita cost of reduction in oil provinces (geographically concentrated sources)Federal government stick = threaten regulationFederal government carrot = cost sharing Leadership has to come from Ottawa, ideally supported by some provinces First step: federal-provincial agreement on equitable sharing of reductions among provinces and sectors