Andrei Gabrielov Purdue University West Lafayette IN USA wwwmathpurdueeduagabriel San Francisco April 18 1906 Plate Tectonics Major tectonic plates and world seismicity Plate Tectonics ID: 272022
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Slide1
Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction
Andrei Gabrielov
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN, USA
www.math.purdue.edu/~agabrielSlide2
San Francisco, April 18, 1906Slide3
Plate Tectonics
Major tectonic plates and world seismicitySlide4
Plate Tectonics
Plate boundaries and tectonic faultsSlide5
North American
Plate
Pacific
PlateSlide6
Elastic Rebound Theory
Discovered after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (before plate tectonics theory).
Slide7
Elastic Rebound Theory
Discovered after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (before plate tectonics theory).
Slide8
Elastic Rebound
Slow build-up of deformation (strain) in the rocks by plate motion. Strain (energy) is released suddenly as fault slips. Slide9
Earthquake Focus and EpicenterSlide10
Earthquakes
generate elastic waves:
Body waves:
P (pulse), S (transverse)
Surface waves:
R (Rayleigh), L (Love)
P-wave
First
arrival
S-wave
Surface waves
Time
Seismogram for a distant earthquakeSlide11
A wave pulse (P-wave)
Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University
http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html
Slide12
Transverse wave (S-wave)
Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University
http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html
Slide13
Rayleigh wave
Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University
http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html
Slide14Slide15
Seismic waves through
the Earth’s interior
that indicate
structure
(crust, mantle,
outer core,
inner core, etc.)
Seismic Waves in the EarthSlide16
Magnitude
Measure of the
ENERGY
released in the earthquake, based on vibration caused by seismic waves
Logarithmic scale
―
M = 6 is ten times greater vibration, and a hundred times more energy, than M = 5 (at the same distance)
Should not be mistaken for
INTENSITY
―
the measure of the damage caused by the earthquakeSlide17
Moment = M
0
= µ A D
(dyne-cm) (dyne is a unit of force)
µ
= shear modulus ~ 32 GPa in crust (~3.2 x 10
11
dynes/cm
2
),
~75 GPa in mantle (a measure of strength of rocks)
A
=
LW = area (cm2), D = average displacement (cm)Mw = 2/3 log10(M0) - 10.7
Moment Magnitude Mw
Epicenter (location on Earth’s surface
above the hypocenter)
Focus or hypocenter
(point of initiation
of the rupture)
*
DepthSlide18
Gutenberg-Richter LawSlide19
Descriptor
Magnitude
Average Annually
Great
8 and higher
1 ¹
Major
7 - 7.9
17 ²
Strong
6 - 6.9
134 ²
Moderate
5 - 5.9
1319 ²
Light
4 - 4.9
13,000 (est.)
Minor
3 - 3.9
130,000 (est.)
Very Minor
2 - 2.9
1,300,000 (est.)
¹ Based on observations since 1900.
² Based on observations since 1990.
Worldwide earthquakes per year (from USGS):Slide20
Aftershocks
Earthquakes that happen following a mainshock, in the same region but of smaller magnitude
Aftershock frequency distribution in time t after the mainshock satisfies Omori Law:
Bath’s Law: Aftershock’s magintude is approximately 1.2 less than mainshock’s
Aftershocks frequency-magnitude distribution satisfies Gutenberg-Richter lawSlide21
World’s largest earthquakes since 1900Slide22
Location
Date UTC
Mag.
Lat.
Long.
1
Chile
1960 05 22
9.5
-38.29
-73.05
2
Prince William Sound, Alaska
1964 03 28
9.2
61.02
-147.65
3
Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
2004 12 26
9.1
3.30
95.78
4
Honshu
, Japan
2011 03 11
9.0
38.32
142.37
5
Kamchatka1952 11 049.052.76160.066
Maule
, Chile
2010 02 27
8.8
-
35.85
-
72.72
7
Off the Coast of Ecuador
1906 01 31
8.8
1.0
-81.5
8
Rat Islands, Alaska
1965 02 04
8.7
51.21
178.50
9
Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
2005 03 28
8.6
2.08
97.01
10
Assam - Tibet
1950 08 15
8.628.596.511Northern Sumatra, Indonesia2012 04 118.62.3193.0612Andreanof Islands, Alaska1957 03 098.651.56-175.3913Southern Sumatra, Indonesia2007 09 128.5-4.44101.3714Banda Sea, Indonesia1938 02 01
8.5
-5.05
131.62
15
Kamchatka
1923 02 03
8.5
54.0
161.0
16
Chile-Argentina Border
1922 11 11
8.5
-28.55
-70.50
17
Kuril Islands
1963 10 13
8.5
44.9
149.6Slide23
Continental USA largest earthquakesSlide24
Largest Earthquakes in the Continental USA
Location
Date
Magnitude
1.
Cascadia
subduction
zone
1700 01
26
˜9
2.
Fort
Tejon
, California
1857 01
09
7.9
3.
San Francisco, California
1906 04
18
7.8
4.
Imperial Valley, California
1892 02
24
7.8
5.
New Madrid, Missouri
1811 12
16
7.7
6.
New Madrid, Missouri
1812 02
07
7.7
7.
New Madrid, Missouri
1812 01
23
7.5
8.
Owens Valley, California
1872 03
26
7.4
9.
Landers, California
1992 06
28
7.3
10.
Hebgen
Lake, Montana
1959 08
18
7.3
11.
Kern County, California
1952 07
21
7.3
12.
West of Eureka, California
1922 01
31
7.3
13.
Charleston, South Carolina
1886 09
01
7.3
14.
California - Oregon Coast
1873 11
23
7.3
15.
N Cascades, Washington
1872 12
15
7.3Slide25Slide26
Strong Earthquakes Nucleate in Some “
Dangerous”
Structures (D-nodes)
Gelfand, et al., 1976.
Qualitatively, D-nodes are recognized
by local depression on the background of NG‑Q depression
(“local tension on the background of general compression”)
by proximity of hydrothermal reservoirsSlide27
Non-precursory
state
Precursory state
Clustering
Range of
correlation
in space
Intensity
Magnitude-
frequency
relation
lgN
m
lgN
m
Earthquake prediction
A strong earthquake is preceded by the following changes in seismicity:Slide28
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF PREDICTIONSlide29
Intermediate-term (5
yrs
) Prediction
Algorithm M8-MSc,
Keilis-Borok
and
KossobokovSlide30
Predicting the 3/11/2011
M9 earthquake in Japan Slide31
Predicting the
4/11/2012
M8.6 and M8.2
Earthquakes off the
Western coast of
Northern Sumatra,
Indonesia Slide32
FRONTIERS OF SIMILARITY
Precursors have been defined for earthquakes.
Only the final scale was adjusted for starquakes.Slide33
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PREDICTIONSSlide34
Prediction of US RecessionsSlide35
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (Keilis-Borok and Lichtman)
Prediction is based on thirteen socio-economic and political factors.
Victory of challenging party is predicted when 6 or more factors are in its favor.
Otherwise victory of incumbent party is predicted.
Retrospective Analysis: 1860 - 1980
*
years when popular vote was reversed by electoral vote.
Red
- incumbent won
,
blue
–
challenger won
.
Predictions published months in advance:
all
8
- correctSlide36
Key 1: (
Party Mandate
): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Key 2: (
Contest
): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Key 3: (
Incumbency
): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
Key 4: (
Third party
): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Key 5:
(Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.Key 6: (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.Key 7: (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.Key 8: (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.Key 9: (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.Key 10: (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.Key 11: (Foreign/military success
): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.Key 12: (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.Key 13: (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
13 Keys to Presidency (
Keilis-Borok
and
Lichtman
)
Answer
YES
favors re-election of the incumbent party
Slide37
•
KEY 1: Party mandate
. After the midterm elections, the
incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
•
KEY 2: Contest
. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
•
KEY 3: Incumbency
. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
•
KEY 4: Third party
. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE)• KEY 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)• KEY 6: Long-term economy. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
• KEY 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)• KEY 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)• KEY 9: Scandal. The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)• KEY 10: Foreign/military failure. The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)• KEY 11: Foreign/military success. The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)• KEY 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)• KEY 13: Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)
Answers for the 2012 presidential election(published 28 months before the election)