Love Råman Vinnå 1 Iselin Medhaug 2 Martin Schmid 1 Damien Bouffard 1 1 Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Surface Waters Research and Management Kastanienbaum Switzerland ID: 1024383
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Local factors affecting climate related ..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Local factors affecting climate related warming of lakesLove Råman Vinnå1*, Iselin Medhaug2, Martin Schmid1, Damien Bouffard1. 1Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Surface Waters – Research and Management, Kastanienbaum, Switzerland; 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland;*Corresponding author e-mail: love.ramanvinna@eawag.ch 22.10.2019LAKE2019
2. O’Reilly, C. M. et al. Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophys Res Lett 42, 10,773–10,781 (2015).Heterogeneity in lakes climate responseLake Summer Surface Water TemperatureMotivation222.10.2019LAKE2019Past global and regional variability of climate warming in lakes.
3. Woolway, R. I. & Merchant, C. J. Worldwide alteration of lake mixing regimes in response to climate change. Nat. Geosci. 12, 271–276 (2019)Heterogeneity in lakes climate responseMotivation322.10.2019LAKE2019RCP2.6RCP6.0Future projected global and regional variability of climate warming in lakes.
4. Properties affecting warming of lakesInternalBathymetryStudy OutlineIntroductionExternalWater clarityWatershedThermalemissionsAtmospheric forcingAltitudeIceStratification422.10.2019LAKE2019
5. Properties affecting warming of lakesInternalBathymetryStudy OutlineIntroductionExternalWater clarityWatershedThermalemissionsAtmospheric forcingAltitudeIceStratification522.10.2019LAKE2019
6. CH2018 – Climate scenarios SwitzerlandIntroduction622.10.2019LAKE2019CH2018. CH2018 - Climate scenarios for switzerland, Technical Report, National Center for Climate Services, Zürich. 271 pp. ISBN: 978-3-9525031-4–0 (2018).GCM-RCM modelswithQuantile mapping:givesBias corrected dataIn daily resolution1981 - 2099
7. EARTH-KNMIEARTH-HIRHEARTH-CCLM5EARTH-RCA4HADGEM-CCLM4HADGEM-CCLM5HADGEM-KNMIHADGEM-RCA4MPIESM-CCLM5MPIESM-RCA4MIROC-CCLM5MIROC-RCA4ESM2-RCA4CSIRO-RCA4IPSL-RCA4NORESM-RCA4NOAGFDL-RCA4EARTH-HIRHEARTH-RCA4HADGEM-KNMIHADGEM-RCA4MPIESM-RCA4MIROC-RCA4NORESM-RCA4EARTH-HIRHEARTH-RCA4HADGEM-KNMIHADGEM-RCA4MPIESM-RCA4MIROC-RCA4NORESM-RCA47 RCP4.517 RCP8.57 RCP2.629 Lakes899 simulations from 1981 to 2099Temperature Stratification Simstrat One-dimensional physical lake modelIce cover durationClimate Study SetupMethod722.10.2019LAKE2019
8. SimstratMethod8Lake Biel Switzerland; Historical runModel highlights:Physical deterministic 1D lake modelInternal wave field mixingk-e turbulence closureIce coverModel Page:Near Real time results:Free source code:https://www.eawag.ch/en/department/surf/projects/simstrat/https://simstrat.eawag.ch/https://github.com/Eawag-AppliedSystemAnalysis/Simstrat/22.10.2019LAKE2019
9. 9Simstrat - near real time onlineMethod922.10.2019LAKE2019Gaudard, A., Råman Vinnå, L., Bärenbold, F., Schmid, M. & Bouffard, D. Toward an open-access of high-frequency lake modelling and statistics data for scientists and practitioners. The case of Swiss Lakes using Simstrat v2.1. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 1–32 (2019) doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-336.
10. Lake Properties10Results1L. Maggiore2Lower L. Lugano3Upper L. Lugano4L. Geneva5Lower L. Constance6Upper L. Constance7Upper L. Zurich8Lower L. Zurich9Walensee10Rotsee11L. Biel12L. Murten13L. Neuchatel14L. Alpnach15L. Lucerne, Gersauer Becken16L. Lucerne, Kreuztrichter17L. Lucerne, Urnersee18Greifensee19Pfäffikersee20L. Brienz21Klöntalersee22Lago di Poschiavo23Lac de Joux24Lac de l'Hongrin25L. Davos26Oeschinensee27L. St. Moritz28L. Silvaplana29L. SilsLakes ascending altitude order22.10.2019LAKE2019Enhanced change in high altitude lakes Stratification Summer & Winter Ice cover
11. Stratification Regime Shifts11Results22.10.2019LAKE2019Enhanced change in high altitude lakes HoweverLow- to mid altitude lakes change from dimictic to warm monomicticSome lakes will change regardless of emission scenario used.
12. Ice cover12Results22.10.2019LAKE2019Universal shortening of ice cover durationLarge deviation between emission scenarios
13. Heat Flux - altitude dependent regimes13Results22.10.2019LAKE2019Ice cover depletion has consequences Drastic change of heat fluxes as isolating effect of ice disappears
14. Changes expected under all emission scenarios Change in majority of lakes can be limited by emission restrictionHowever some lakes the changes are irreversible Drastic physical function changes expected - Low to mid altitude small lakes most sensitiveIce coverHeat Flux Stratification regimeTrends depend on system size and altitude Small Large Low High Deep Warming: Slower Faster Faster Slower Stratification: Faster Slower Slower Faster Ice Slower Faster22.10.2019LAKE2019Take Home Messages14Summary
15. Questions?“Water is life…our existence is dependent on water...one could say that our whole civilization is built on the use of water.” Vuorinen et al. [2007] 1522.10.2019LAKE2019
16. Simstrat - PerformanceMethod22.10.2019LAKE201916
17. 22.10.2019LAKE201917Lake PropertiesResults