A forecast is a prediction or estimation of future situation It is an objective assessment of future course of action Since future is uncertain no forecast can be per cent correct Forecasts can be both physical as well as financial in nature The more realistic the forecasts the more effective ID: 537591
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DEMAND FORECASTING
A forecast is a prediction or estimation of future situation. It is an objective assessment of future course of action. Since future is uncertain, no forecast can be per cent correct. Forecasts can be both physical as well as financial in nature. The more realistic the forecasts, the more effective decisions can be taken for tomorrow.Slide2
definition
According to
Cundiff
and Still, “ Demand forecasting is an estimate of sales during a specified future period which is tied to a proposed marketing plan and which assumes a particular set of uncontrollable and competitive forces”.Slide3
Types of demand forecasting
Non-durable consumer goods – food, milk, medicine, fruits
Durable consumer goods – car, T.V. furniture
Forecasting demand for capital goods - machinerySlide4
Forecasting the demand for consumer durables
Population changes
Buying power
Income (per capita income)
The number and age
Consumer attitude and demandSlide5
Forecasting techniques
i
.
Opinion polling method
Consumer’s survey
Sample survey
Experts methods
Statistical method
Trend projection method
Graphical methodSlide6
Criteria of a good forecasting method
Accuracy
Flexibility
Availability
Simplicity
Should not be too costly
stabilitySlide7
Qualitative forecasting
Surveys and opinion polls are used to make short- term forecasts when qualitative data are not available. These qualitative techniques can also be very useful for supplementary qualitative forecasts which anticipate changes in consumer tastes or business expectations about future economic conditions.
Survey techniques
– houses, washing machine, furniture
T.V.
Opinion polls
– economic activity. Consumers goods