Breakaway 5: - PDF document

1 Breakaway 5: Wind’s logical contribut
Breakaway 5: Wind’s logical contribution to a renewables - based Southern African Power Pool in 2050 Energy Corridors in Africa and Thoughts on Wind’s totential Contribution to Final Energy Delivered in the SAPP, 2050 Benson Zeyi Programme Officer, Country Support and Partnerships Africa Clean Energy Corridor Implementation Work Streams Zoning and Resource Assessment • Identification of high resource zones for RE development. Country and Regional Planning • Considerati

2 on of cost - effective RE options for po
on of cost - effective RE options for power generation in national and regional plans. Enabling Frameworks for Investment • Opening markets to IPPs, reducing the costs of RE financing and facilitating power trade. Capacity Building • Development of skills to build, plan, operate power grids with higher RE shares. Awareness Raising and Political Support • Awareness raising and promotion of the Africa Clean Energy Corridor and its benefit. 10/15/2019 2 Africa Clean Energy C

3 orridor Implementation Resource Assessme
orridor Implementation Resource Assessment and Energy Planning Zoning of Resource - Rich Wind & Solar & Areas SADC Technical Potential Wind: 3 726 GW Solar PV: 25 437 GW CSP: 13 861 GW Capacity building on zoning methodology Threshold Exclusion Criteria: • Resource quality (e.g. 50 W/m 2 ) • Protected areas • Water bodies, airports, railroads etc. • Population density (e.g. �100/km 2 ) • Land - use, land - cover. • Distance to existing/planned grid • Dis

4 tance to road, substation • Distance t
tance to road, substation • Distance to RE projects • etc. Country Planning Eswatini Regional Planning SAPP Master Plan Continental Planning PIDA revision 2020 Planning 10/15/2019 3 Africa Clean Energy Corridor Implementation Renewables Readiness Assessment • Conducted for Eswatini , Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana ( under implementation ) • Identify barriers and bottlenecks for deployment of renewables • Provide recommendations for improvement REmap • Conduc

5 ted for South Africa • Provided insigh
ted for South Africa • Provided insight into additional renewable energy deployment potentials to 2030 • Analysis of potential for use of renewable energy in end - use sector • Identify cost and benefits of deploying additional renewable energy Legal and Regulatory Support • Development of guidelines for RERA on Planning Oversight • Namibia, Zimbabwe as case studies Enabling Frameworks for Investment 10/15/2019 4 Wind Energy Cost Analysis Onshore wind • LCOE to fa

6 ll by 26% by 2025 • Capital cost: Turb
ll by 26% by 2025 • Capital cost: Turbine cost ~ 65 - 75% of capital cost, fallen by 33% from 2007 to 2016 • Total installed costs falling: $5000/kW in 1983, $3000/kW in 1990 and $1500/kW in 2016 • Installed costs declined by 7% every time global installed capacity has doubled • Increased competition, improvement in wind resource forecasting and improved reliability of turbines reducing O&M costs Offshore wind • Total installed cost to reduce by 15% by 2025 • LCOE t

7 o fall by 35% 10/15/2019 5 Africa Clean
o fall by 35% 10/15/2019 5 Africa Clean Energy Corridor Planning (PIDA revision 2020) Scenarios Modelled Scenario Description REF: base case RELow : 20% share of non - hydro renewables. VRE @ 20% REHigh : 50% share of non - hydro renewables. VRE @ 50% Dry - year (HyDry): limited hydro availability Delayed Hydro ( HyDel ): delays in the construction of planned hydro generation projects TxExz : Unconstrained transmission network expansion after 2035 By 2040 REF: VRE @ 36% Hy

8 Dry : production from natural gas, bioma
Dry : production from natural gas, biomass and solar PV increases reduced [from 291 TWh in 2040 (REF) to 216 TWh ( HyDry )] HyDel : wind production increases from 206 TWh (REF) to 427 TWh REHigh : VRE replaces gas generation. Wind @ 34.2% and solar PV @ 15.6% TxEx : generation from VRE sources increases to 38%. Generation by solar PV increases and wind decreases. 10/15/2019 6 Wind’s contribution is significant in delayed hydro and REHigh Africa Clean Energy Corridor P

9 lanning (PIDA revision 2020) Yearly Syst
lanning (PIDA revision 2020) Yearly System Cost (M$) 10/15/2019 7 Delayed hydro scenario cheapest option Cost difference REF and REHigh is not significant, implying more ambitious targets for wind and solar PV deployment can be achieved with only a minor increase in total system costs When environmental costs are considered REHigh will be cheaper then REF Africa Clean Energy Corridor Planning (PIDA revision 2020) Expected Hourly Generation in some Countries Diversification

10 reduces energy cost (reduce reliance
reduces energy cost (reduce reliance on coal and gas) , coal consumption and CO2 emissions 10/15/2019 8 Africa Clean Energy Corridor Planning (PIDA revision 2020) Onshore Wind Capacity Factors Potential Capacity and LCOE 10/15/2019 9 Conclusion • Energy demand expected to grow in SADC • New generation and transmission projects necessary • Delayed hydro scenario cheapest option; onshore wind has a significant role • Wind energy is cost effective • Complementarity

11 of RE important • Accelerated RE depl
of RE important • Accelerated RE deployment creates jobs and brings health benefits “Renewable energy is the most effective and ready solution to rising carbon emissions. Together with energy efficiency , they can deliver 90 per cent of the emission reductions needed under the Paris Agreement, but investment and deployment must increase significantly ” IRENA Director - General Francesco La Camera UNGA, New York, 22 September 2019 10/15/2019 10 THANK YOU 10/15