Experiences from EU FP7 CREEA and other projects Prof Arnold Tukker Director Institute of Environmental Sciences CML Leiden University 70 and TNO 30 per 1 October 2013 small visiting position at NTNU ID: 1043988
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1. Research projects on creating global Monetary/Energy/Material EE SUTExperiences from EU FP7 CREEA and other projectsProf. Arnold Tukker Director Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University (70%) and TNO (30%) per 1 October 2013, small visiting position at NTNUChemist, RUU, 1987Ministry of Environment < 1990, after this TNO, Program manager Sustainable Innovation & Economy (5 Mio Euro/yr)PhD in policy sciences, Tilburg University, 1997, prof. J. Cramer20% professor of Sustainable Innovation, NTNU, Trondheim, NorwayLondon Group meeting, 12-14 November 2013, London
2. IntroductionResource Efficiency, Green Economy and Sustainable Consumption are key UN and EU policiesEurostat and EEA are the EU’s official data and indicator providersCML, TNO, NTNU, and partners gave major scientific supportEurostat Data Centre ProjectsSome 15 Million Euro of EU FP7 projects on global databases (EXIOPOL, CREEA, DESIRE, CARBON CAP)43 countries linked via trade160 sectors and product groups per country40 emissions, 80 resources, land and water per sectorImprovement of various impact indicatorsThis presentationHow we conceptualise the use of UN SEEAState of the art in our and other projectsExperience with data availability and examples of assessments
3. The sustainability problemEarth’s Natural systemResources Emissions and wasteSociety’s Economic systemFootprint > 1 EarthWe deplete water, mineral & energy stocksWe use 35 % of biomass production We have depleted fish stocksGHG => 4-6 oC temp. RiseTraffic emissions……etc.
4. What we want to measure and achieveUN/EU/OECD/Chinese/Japanese agenda’s on Sustainable Consumption and Production, Resource Efficiency, Green Economy…all aim at improved human well-being decoupled from resource use and emissions10 januari 2011M Bouman
5. How we conceptually summarize SEEAElementsSeparate a Natural system and Socio-economic systemUse Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response chainInclude Natural-Economic-Social capital stocksGlobal MR Input-Output Framework with extensions for economic systemSocial CapitalNatural CapitalEconomic Capital
6. Some key working blocks covered in our projectsEXIOPOL: Global MR EE IO/SUT 43 countries, 129 sectors, 40 emissions, 80 resources, land, water for 2000 – finishedCREEA: Deeper experimentation with water, material/waste, forestry and carbon accountsWhere possible feeding into the 2007 version of EXIOBASENew features(Almost) full product detail of IEA energy productsImproved detailing and trade linking, using real transport and insurance information for marginsEstimated global physical-energy SUT which balances waste and material flows10 januari 2011M Bouman
7. Some key working blocks covered in our projectsDESIRE: Indicators for Res. EffEXIOBASE time seriesExtra focus on critical materialsBiodiversity & ecosystem service indicators linked to economic activitiesBeyound GDP as referenceSelecting meaningful indicatorsCARBON-CAP: Consumption based carbon accountsUncertainty assessmentsPolicy measures & scenarios
8. Review of similar workTukker, Dietzenbacher (2013), Economic systems research 25, p 1-19
9. Typical data situation: economic systemEconomic data: UN SEEA supply & use / input output system: good (waste: medium )Social CapitalNatural CapitalEconomic Capital
10. Typical data situation: pressuresPressures: resource extraction good , emissions: good to medium Social CapitalNatural CapitalEconomic CapitalBiotic materials: FAOEnergy materials: IEAIndustrial minerals: USGS, BGSBuilding materials: USGS, BGSWater, land: FAOEnergy emissions: IEA+emission factorsAgricultural emissions: FAO + fertiliser use+emission factorsOther: need dedicated statistics
11. Typical data situation: impactsImpact indicators: emissions good (global warming) to medium (toxic impacts); resources good (water) to bad (biodiversity) Social CapitalNatural CapitalEconomic CapitalBiotic materials & land => biodiversity Energy materials; Industrial minerals; Building materials => local impactsWater = water extraction index Greenhouse gases: LCIA – GWP Other emissions: Life cycle impact ass.Toxicity & local impacts: Medium
12. Typical data situation: responses & capital stocksResponses: medium to badEconomic capital: medium; Social and Natural capital: medium to bad; limited insights in safe thresholdsSocial CapitalNatural CapitalEconomic Capital
13. (Simplistic?) summary“Good”: economic system; resource & emission pressures, some impactsResour-cesSocial CapitalNatural CapitalEconomic CapitalEmis-sionsImpacts(Biodiv)ImpactsMedium: Some emission pressures, some impacts, economic capital, wasteBad: part of social capital, natural capital, responses, biodiversity impactsNow to some examples with green boxes/available data!
14. Example 1: Impacts of EU27 consumptionConsumption & production perspectiveExample: % impacts of EU27 consumption abroad. Water, land, materials >30%Source: EU FP6 EXIOPOL project, TNO, CML et al.
15. Example 2: 80% of impacts of consumption caused byFood (meat and dairy)MobilityHousing (heating and cooling) and Electrical appliancesSource: EIPRO study, TNO, CML, VITO and DTU for DG JRC IPTS
16. Example 3: Resource-efficiency by sectorAdvanced methodEstimates not only economic, but also physical relations in an Input-Output tablePer sectorInput intermediate products + resourcesOutput of manufactured productsOutput of waste and emissionsSource: EU FP7 CREEA project, TNO, 2-0 LCA, CML, NTNU, SERI, others10 januari 2011M Bouman
17. Example 4: Redundancy of indicators revisitedDespite the many indicator systems, the consumption perspective and impact indicators often are forgottenPressuresImpactsConsum-ptionEU27 territoryConsum-ptionEU27 territorySource: EU FP7 DESIRE project, TNO et al.10 januari 2011M Bouman
18. Recommendations (done at UN Beijing Workshop)Use UN SEEA as an agreed coherent concept Work where possible with existing data & indicator compilersUse UN SEEA, existing economic accounts and pressure databases in combination with existing impact assessment methods Use an EE IO framework: ensures that with territorial accounts you can calculate consumption-based accounts Research community but also London Group members have developed harmonization routines already good enough for a first informal data setDetailing & harmonizationLinking via tradeEstimating emissions & resource uses with existing macro-databasesData gaps: likely on social capital, natural capital/state, responsesImprove scientific basis for impact indicators (e.g. biodiversity)Improve insights in thresholds related to natural and social capital
19. Conclusions and recommendations Global MR EE IO databases are still in development; going in one step to a statistical accepted database is now too muchIn the next 1-2 years we get much insight in uncertainties between databases There is however a need to go ‘beyound just research status’How can we realise this? Some ideasGet NSI Directors of some 5-10 interested countries/regions working already on this behind this (via a side event on an UN SD meeting?)Joint project of such countries + researchersBest practicesMaybe combining some first official data setsCf OECD working group on MFAUse of international funding like Europe Aid Switch Asia for practical projects with Asian Statistical offices
20. Thanks for your attention!10 januari 2011M Bouman
21. Slides with additional examples10 januari 2011M Bouman
22. What you can calculate with EE SUT and IOTEU EIPRO (480 sector EE IOT)Priority setting of productsProved that food, mobility and housing were prio’sEU Diet changeChange to healthy diets by changing demand vectorShowed rebounds by linking EE IOT to the CAPRI modelTukker et al., 2011, Ecological Economics (in press)Tukker (ed., 2006), Journal Industrial Ecology 10: 310 januari 2011M Bouman
23. Based on a string of EU funded projects next to EEA and Eurostat workGoal: building the most ambitious macro-database and dynamic model forEconomic interactions in and between countries (MR IO Table)At a > 130 sector and product levelIncluding detailed emission and resource extraction dataRole of each project (total 15 Mio Euro, with TNO, CML, NTNU, SERI, others)EXIOPOL: first version of the database, TNO government money: first version of a dynamic CGE model (EXIOMOD)CREEA: 2nd base year; water extraction by river basin; using IEA and other information to create the worlds first physical and energy MR IO linked to economic dataDESIRE: builds MR EE IO time series; adds biodiversity indicators; rigorous assessment of resource indicators; identification of ‘minimum useful set’CARBON-CAP: consumption based emission analysis for climate policyEMINIMM: quantifies diffusion of eco-innovation, to be fed into our modelPOLFREE: aligns EXIOMOD with an environmental model; sophisticated evaluation of resource efficiency scenarios for Europe DG ENV: visible scenario-analysis with the EXIOMOD model10 januari 2011M Bouman
24. To avoid indicator proliferation, we need a conceptIs in part logic thinkingIs in part alignmentExample: Green growth knowledge platformInputs: the natural asset baseProduction: intensity/productivityOutputs: material and non-material wellbeing10 januari 2011M Bouman
25. To sum upMeasure natural capital stock / Environmental state & relevant thresholdsMeasure well-being and social capital stockMeasure responsesGet detailed stock-flow data of the economic system and its material flows and emissions; f.i. in an EE IO format following UN SEEA – which includes DriversCapital stockGives one related dataset allowing for calculating pressures and impacts, from a consumption and territorial perspective
26. Some examplesNatural capital & thresholdsWell being and social capital (-)Responses (-)Stock-flow data in economy and related pressures and impacts 10 januari 2011M Bouman
27. How to select the ‘best’ indicator setUse the RACER conceptrelevant, acceptable, credible, easy and robust’Use the Policy Cycle Concept – do the indicators help in all steps?Use correlation analysis to understand which headline indicators have most saying power10 januari 2011M Bouman
28. Example 2: Carbon emissions of EU (Eurostat)10 januari 2011M Bouman
29. What are the key policy objectives?SCPGreen EconomyResource Efficiency“the use of services and related products which respond to basic needs and bring a better quality of life while minimizing the use of natural resources and toxic materials as well as the emissions of waste and pollutants over the life-cycle so as not to jeopardize the needs of future generations“one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities”using the Earth's limited resources in a sustainable manner while minimising impacts on the environment. It allows us to create more with less and to deliver greater value with less input10 januari 2011M Bouman
30. Example 4: Quality of life versus impactsHappy life years versus ecological footprint by countrySource: new economics foundation10 januari 2011M Bouman