What make an ad negative How do voters respond to such ads Negative Campaign Ads As a strategy Classic examples What lessons Always wrong What effects Turnout Voter opinions Blowback ID: 233178
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Slide1
Negative Ads
What make an ad “negative”?
How do voters respond to such ads?Slide2
Negative Campaign Ads
As a strategy
Classic examples
What lessons
Always wrong?
What effects?
Turnout
Voter opinions
Blow-backSlide3
Negative Campaign Ads
Classic examples
Begs questions:
What is negative?
What is unfair?Slide4
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
LBJ Daisy Girl ad
1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad
Just once
What are voters supposed to hear?
What did they hear?
Vote LBJ, or they
’
ll nuke your kidSlide5
1964 & Goldwater
Daisey Girl
Ice Cream
KKK
Convention
East coastSlide6
1964 & Goldwater
Would Goldwater have lost anyway?
Economy strong
Incumbent popular
LBJ also running
positive ads
Nation at war
Goldwater did say those thingsSlide7
Negative Campaigns
Classic Examples
Willie Horton
1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis
Lee Atwater…
“
only question, which hand
”
Just once (or twice)
How define candidate?
Why able to define candidate?Slide8
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
Willie Horton
Why did this one reach legend status?
Aired only once
‘
anonymously
’
Spawned free coverage
Woven into
‘
official
’
campaign
message
Opinion shiftedSlide9
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
Bush v. Dukakis 1988
Informal co-ordination (compare to superPacs
)
Bush campaign could define an unknown candidate
Dukakis
made it easy on them
TANK AD
Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?Slide10
Negative Campaigns?
Dukakis had it coming?
Tank photo among 100 photos that change the World
Anne Frank portrait
Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL
Tienneman Square (tank standoff)Slide11
TanksSlide12
1988 & Dukakis
Would Dukakis have lost anyway?
GHW Bush Reagan’s VP
Reagan popular
Economy OKSlide13
Negative Campaigns
Classic example
Jesse Helms,
Hands
1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt
Context matters
Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening black voters with jail if they voted
“
qualifications don
’
t matter…
”Slide14
Negative campaigns
Playing the race card?
Call Me, Harold Ford Jr.
Corker ad
RNC / Corker campaign accused of racism
Would Ford have lost anyway?
TN a “red” stateSlide15
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
Chambliss vs
Max Cleland
US Senate 2002
Karl Rove
painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic
Link conservative Dem to OsBL
Could ad have happened if not for 9/11?
Bill Clinton recently said MoveOn ad lowest thing since this
Would Cleland have lost?Slide16
Negative Campaigns
More recent examples
2004 National elections
Karl Rove
GOP,
“
These are the stakes
”
Democrats = you will die?
at least that
’
s how they spun itSlide17
Negative Campaigns
Bush
v. Kerry, 2004
SwiftBoat
Vets
(Kerry’s words)
SwiftBoat Vets
(Kerry lying)
Independent hit from 527 org
Wolves
Windsurfing
Policy
content? No appeal to fear?Slide18
Kerry & 2004
Would Kerry have lost anyway?
Bush incumbent
Economy OK
Close election
Kerry led in national polls until August
No robust response to SBVT adsSlide19
Negative Campaigns
Recent examples
McCain
2008
First ad
Disrespectful
Highest percent of ads negative
Obama
2008
Country
Embrace
Enough $ to go negative and positiveSlide20
2008 Campaign
Any Democrat would have won
What effect of ads?
What effect of money?Slide21
2012 Primaries
SuperPac spending vs. candidate spending
Gingrich SuperPac “
What kind of man?”
Gingrich SuperPac
“Blood Money”
Gingrich SuperPac ad
Unelectable
Romney SuperPac
Reagan ad
Romney SuperPac
Unelectable
Romney
Tom Brokaw adSlide22
2012 Primaries
Compare to 2008 Primary
What effect negative ads?
Romney able to beat back Newt’s SC surge in FL
C
ould Romney win nomination w/o negative ads?
Romney’s “unfavorable” rating risingSlide23
Negative Campaigns
What lessons
Some on winning side, some on losing side
Potential to define a candidate
Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry
Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal)
Potential for blowback
Clinton
‘
08 (
3am ad
)Slide24
Negative Campaigns
When wrong
What criteria to say,
too
negative?
Fear
Race
Religion
Policy?
Do we learn something…(other than fear, race, religion..)Slide25
Negative ads
What effects?
Reduce turnout (???)
Generate interest / attention to news
Generate dissatisfaction with choices
(Re)define candidate
Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry, Romney
What if target lacks resources to respond…Slide26
The Virtue of Negative Ads
What effects
; Prof. John G. Geer
Is there policy content/ learning
To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being critical
Must have
‘
vetting
’
Analysis of ballot initiative ads
The
Geer adSlide27
Best Ad of Late
Dale Peterson for Alabama Agriculture Commission
First
Second