National Weather Service Los AngelesOxnard August 20 2015 El Niño outlook 201516 Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditions Greater than 90 chance of an El Ni ID: 682908
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Eric Boldt
Warning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/OxnardAugust 20, 2015
El Niño
outlook
2015-16Slide2
Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditionsGreater than 90% chance of an El Ni
ño this winterForecasters unanimously favor a “strong” categoryLatest ENSO* InformationAugust 2015El Niño Advisory in effect* ENSO stands for El Niño Southern OscillationSlide3
Normal Pacific Pattern Slide4
El Niño Pattern Slide5
Global Satellite on
August 12, 2015
CloudsSlide6
Sea Surface
Temperature Anomalies Last Four WeeksSlide7
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies –
One Year
Latest weekly
(Aug. 17) value
of Niño 3.4 region
is
+2.0°
CSlide8
Sub-Surface
Temperatures in the
Equatorial Pacific (0-300m)Slide9
Comparison of SSH - 1997, 2015Slide10
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Cool phase since 1997
- Warm phase past yearSlide11
ENSO Model Predictions
Neutral
Summer
Winter
Weak to Moderate
StrongSlide12
Classic
El Niño Winter ImpactsSlide13
average
93-94Slide14Slide15Slide16
El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter
The strength of this El Niño is the most difficult prediction; favors a strong eventOne El Niño winter season will not end the drought (over 30” rainfall deficit in 4-years)Prior to the rainy season, we should be prepared for a dangerous wildfire seasonConclusionsSlide17
Thank You!
805-988-6623 eric.boldt@noaa.govweather.gov/losangeles @NWSLosAngelesweather.gov/losangeles
NWSLosAngeles