and the Future Roberto Poli httpwwwprojectanticipationorg Trento httpwwwprojectanticipationorg The city of the Council 15451563 Things are obviously different Cardinals scholars ID: 464502
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Slide1
Anticipation, Complexity and the Future
Roberto Poli
http://www.projectanticipation.orgSlide2
Trentohttp://www.projectanticipation.org
The city of the
Council (1545-1563)Things are obviouslydifferent …
Cardinals – scholars18 y meeting – 3 d meetingThe big split – the beginning of a (partial) reunificationSlide3
The agendahttp://www.projectanticipation.org
Chart the territory
: understand how different sciences and disciplines address the futureThis conference shows that the topic is getting burning-hot
Almost 400 submissionsAbout 260 presentationsWide disciplinary coverage: from sociology to engineering, from philosophy to design, from city planning to anthropology, from psychology to architecture,
etc
For which purpose?
Forthcoming challenges (and opportunities) ask us
move
from
a primarily reactive science to a primarily anticipatory
oneChange from understanding “what is” to “what is to become” And, as a consequence, help addressing the fragmentation especially of the human and social sciencesSlide4
http://www.projectanticipation.org
A First
Understanding of Anticipation
What
Next
?
A
Methodological
CaveatSlide5
http://www.projectanticipation.org
A First
Understanding
of Anticipation
What
Next
?
A
Methodological
CaveatSlide6
Anticipation
Widely different
ideas of anticipationSo far, no
systematic comparison among the
various
proposals
has ever
been triedWe literally do
not know whether the same idea has
been discovered times and again or
entirely different perspectives have been
proposed
Many recent papers/books
Appadurai
, A. (2013).
The Future
as
Cultural
Fact
Beckert
,
J
. (2013).
Capitalism as a System of ExpectationsSeligman et al (2013). Navigating Into the Future or Driven by the PastTavory, I., & Eliasoph, N. (2013). Coordinating Futures: Toward a Theory of AnticipationPoli, R. (2014). Anticipation: A New Thread for the Human and Social Sciences?Gergen, K. J. (2015). From Mirroring to World-Making: Research as Future FormingMiller, R. et al (2013-2016), The Discipline of Anticipation…
http://www.projectanticipation.orgSlide7
Anticipationhttp://www.projectanticipation.org
The explicit consideration of anticipation opens
new scientific perspectives. To mention but two apparently opposed and disconnected outcomes, anticipation both rehabilitates the Aristotelian theory of causes (including a version of the final cause) and generates an innovative understanding of
complexityOur understanding of anticipation is still cursory, and the novelty of the perspective may conceal the difficulty implied by this otherwise refreshingly new
vision
Nonetheless, anticipation is increasingly at the heart of urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to economic
crisisSlide8
Some Questions about Anticipation
When
anticipation
does
occur
in
behaviour and life?
What types of anticipation can be distinguished
?Which
properties of our environment change the pertinence of different types of anticipation?
Which
structures
and
processes
are
necessary
for
anticipatory
action
?
Which
is the behavioral impact of anticipation?How
can
anticipation
be
modeled
?
http://www.projectanticipation.orgSlide9
Our Starting Point
http://www.projectanticipation.org
The future
is coming back to the research
agenda
Reorientation
of the
research
agenda from understanding
“what is” to understanding “what
is to become”From primary past-orientation
to primary future-orientation
No
awareness
of
Futures
Studies
(FS) – a
field
that
has
been
working
with the future for more
than
60
years
The
few
that
show some awareness of FS, often misunderstand FS and what it is doing
A
ProblemSlide10
Anticipation
http://www.projectanticipation.org
As
a
generic
term
As
a
technical
term
?
Both
acceptations
have
their
meritsSlide11
Traditional Futures Studies
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Futures
Studies as Foresight
,
that
is
the analytic
exploration of possible futures (e.g., via scenarios)
Forecasts (e.g., time series analyses and
their extrapolations) are not a proper part of futures
studiesForesight includes the passage from
scenarios
to
action
(
i.e
,
elaboration
of
strategy
)
Futures
Studies
= ForesightSlide12
New Futures Studies
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Includes Forecasts
as a legitimate component of FS (the building of quantitative
models
)
Separates
the
two
components of foresight into Foresight proper
= analytic exploration of possible futures
(aka the building of qualitative models)Anticipation = the use of models
(both qualitative and quantitative) in action (aka the transformation of
models
into
strategy
and
decision
)Slide13
No
implied
assessmentof value
Anticipation
Foresight
The
Three Levels of Futures Studies
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Forecast
Slide14
Forecast
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Properly previsive activity
Data basedWorks well with
pretty
short (
econometry
) and
very long (climate
change) temporal windowsWell-developed theoretical base
Powerful mathQuantitativePast-orientedA way of
conquering the future from the pastSlide15
Between forecast and foresight
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Something
never to be forgotten:
Trends
deflect
They
may
vanishNew trends may arisei.e.,
there are surprises and novelties
MoreoverUnavailable or unreliable dataQualitative and multi-disciplinary issuesPoor
understanding of the event’s underlying laws and its conditioning factorsWhen the forecasts can affect the event we are trying to forecast When the environment changes in novel and surprising waysExploration of multiple
futures
UncertaintySlide16
Foresighthttp://www.projectanticipation.org
Scenarios
Explorative (from the present
to the future)Normative (from the future to the present)
Non
-
previsive
Extensive
practice –
little theoryIncludes some levels of uncertainty and
ambiguityIncludes efforts for challenging mental
modelsIncludes weak signals and wildcardsSome (but
usually very limited) acceptation of complexity
Future-
orientedSlide17
Intermezzo: the role of reframing
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Learn to see what you usually do not see – collect widely different information (what is now irrelevant, may become relevant tomorrow
)Learn to see things in a different way – Understand your biasesRealize the structural constraints that influence
any of us
“Knowing”
and
“seeing” follow
two different
logics The “end of history” illusion(Education, culture, relationships, power)
(Future-self as the self of another person) For the time being, one exemplification only!Slide18Slide19Slide20Slide21
Why is this important
?
http://www.projectanticipation.orgThe opposition
between “seeing” and “
knowing
”
“
seeing
” – Local information prevails
over global information“knowing” – Global information prevails over local
information(as far as the case we have
considered is concerned – things are more
complex, however)All mental
models
are
biased
Challenging
/
changing
mental
models
requires
dedicated interventions One of the deep roots of prejudiceI know I should be vegetarian, but that steak looks so tasty …The more we are deeply focussed on a task, the less we see
of
our
environmentSlide22
Reframing
Recognize our own mental models (including their biases and prejudices
) and find ways to change themSometimes, the solution to our problems requires that we learn to see/know things differently
Our “inherited” models (including biases and prejudices) are all derived from the past – even if they have
proven
so far successful, this
does not
imply that they will
be successful in the
future as well, in situations very different from those we are accustomed toSlide23
Anticipation
The future is far from being a problem of either extrapolation from trends or exploration of possible futures
Move from a static understanding of the future as something that is there,
to a dynamic/processualistic understanding of the future as something that can be
generated
or
consumed
by our
deedsThe future becomes a problem of modifying and eventually expand our
capacity to actThe future as a problem of designing, implementing and testing new futuresSlide24
Anticipationhttp://www.projectanticipation.org
An anticipatory behavior is a behavior that ‘uses’ the future in its actual decisional
processTo fix ideas, anticipation
includes the outcomes from forecast and foresight and uses them for action
Two
mandatory components: a forward-looking attitude and the use of the former’s result for action
A weather forecast in itself is not anticipatory in the sense used here
Watching a weather forecast and as a consequence taking an umbrella before going to work is instead an anticipatory
behaviorSlide25
Anticipationhttp://www.projectanticipation.org
Anticipation’s two components are coherent with Rosen’s definition of
anticipation“An anticipatory system is a system containing a predictive
model of itself and/or its environment, which allows it to change state at an instant in accord with the model’s predictions pertaining to a later instant” (Rosen, 2012, pp. 8, 313, originally published in 1985
)Slide26
New models developed by our forecast and foresight exercisesOld models
already embedded in ourselves and our communities/organizations/institutions THE PROBLEM: How to successfully use
newly created models to modify already embedded models
Awareness of cognitive and social constraints/biasesAwareness of complexity
A
subtle
difference
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Old
M
New MSlide27
Anticipationhttp://www.projectanticipation.org
Why now?
(1) – Because of the challenges we are going to faceWhy now? (
1I) – Because the (human and social)
sciences are refocusing on the future
Why do this? (1)
–
this
is about the
recognition of the empirical fact of anticipation in all systems – there is an empirical and theoretical challenge to understand how this works. It is also about building our capacity to reflect upon how anticipatory processes are working, and about broadening our repertoire and our sensitivity and reflexivity about thisWhy
do this? (II) – to challenge the fragmentation of the human and social sciences; to help them to make a more significant contribution
to the world (and, as a consequence: to empower citizens and social groups)Slide28
http://www.projectanticipation.org
A First
Understanding of Anticipation
What
Next
?
A
Methodological
CaveatSlide29
What Next? Futures
Literacy
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Typology of FuturesPossible –
Plausible
–
Probable
–
Preferable
(Amara 1981)Tomorrow – 6 months
– 3 years – 10 years – …
Ways of Using the Future (Miller)Optimization
: How to “colonize” the future (e.g., planning) Contingency: How to prepare for anticipated surprises
Novelty:
How to expand perceptions of the
present
Social
and psychological
constraints obstructing
our
future-generating capacity
ComplexitySlide30
Uncertainty
http://www.projectanticipation.org
People often feel
unconfortable with uncertainty –
ambiguity
–
complexity
After
all, humans like to control
thingsAmbiguity and complexity reinforce
one another – but are very
differentAmbiguity is more subjective,
complexity
more
objective
Managing
uncertainty
is
about
learning
to
manage the feelings you have about ambiguity and the knowledge you have about complexitySlide31
http://www.projectanticipation.org
There are
many reasons for discounting the future. One
is: “The End of History
Illusion
” (
Science
, 4
Jan 2013, vol. 339)Extensive
survey (19,000 people, aged 18-68)“Young
people, middle-aged people, and older
people all believed they had
changed a lot in the past but
would
change
relatively
little
in the future.”
“People,
it
seems
,
regard the present as a watershed moment at which they have finally become the person they will be for the rest of their lives.”10 years ago I was very different from the person I
am
now
– At the end of the
next
10 years I will be the same
person
I
am
nowThe illusion leads “people to overpay for future opportunities to indulge their current preferences.”
Why
the future
is
so
easily
discounted
?Slide32
So, What Can Be Done?
http://www.projectanticipation.org
The first step, preliminary
to any other more nuanced
strategy
is
to allow
ourselves to talk about our futureLiterally, to give
us permission to talk about our future, to
insert the future into our present
This preliminary step is far more difficult
than
it
may
appear
Because
it
is
unusual – there are very few situations in which one can legitimately talk about her futureBecause one does not know how to do it(The experience accumulated by FS can be deeply helpful)Slide33
Complexity
No accepted framework or even terminology availableComplexity of what?
Complexity of natural and social systems (objective complexity)Complexity of our
understanding of natural and social systems (subjective complexity)
Complexity of the
models
used for understanding natural and social systems (
scientific
complexity) [a subclass of the former entry]
Complexity of the interactions between natural and social systems and their modelsDoes complexity unfold in degrees (a system is more or less complex) or is it a type (a system is
either simple or complex)? (continuous vs. discrete understanding of complexity)Slide34
An understanding of complexity
Complex
systems result from networks of multiple interacting causes that cannot be individually
distinguishedmust be addressed as entire systems, that is they cannot be addressed in a piecemeal way
they
are such that small inputs may result in disproportionate
effects
the
problems they present cannot be solved once and for ever, but require to be systematically managed and typically any intervention merges into new problems as the result of the interventions to deal with
themthe relevant systems cannot be controlled – the best one can do is to influence them, learn to “dance with them” (Meadows, 1999
)Complicated systems originate from causes that can be individually distinguished; can be addressed piece-by-piece; for each input to the system there is a proportionate output; the relevant systems can be controlled and the problems they present admit permanent solutionsSlide35
My position
Simple Systems
Complex Systems
Complicated systems as a subclass of simple systems
A
simple system does not become complex by making it more complicated, even bewilderingly complicatedSlide36
An organism contains endless mechanisms without being itself a mechanismThe Na-K pump within cell membranes governing the exchange of ions – etc., etc.
A complex system may contain endless simple systems without being itself a simple systemIf it is true that the difference between simple and complex is a difference of type, a
collection of simple systems does not generate a complex one (a collection of simple systems may generate a
complicated system)
A first
intuition
Simple
system
Complex system
Mechanism Organism
Slide37
Two kinds of
system
The
two
types
of
system
follow
different part-whole logics
P
W
P
W P
W
P
Parts
compose the
whole
Parts
compose the
whole
and are
produced
by the
whole
itselfSlide38
Two kinds of systemCollection of parts and their assemblage (house)
The whole and its parts are given in parallel (cat) – differentiation & reorganization are produced by the system itself
Two forms of constitution
from parts to the whole: a system is a collection of interactive units
from the whole to its parts
: constraints on interaction, generation of virtual parts (functions), generation of new types of interaction
A
complex
system
produces
the
elements
it
is
made ofSlide39
Systems
If you take apart a house, and put it back together again, you will almost always have a house, even if it is a poor one. If you do that with a cat, you will almost never have a cat
The cat is composed of whole systems that make a whole system. It can only be disassembled as complete wholes – hence organ replacement is possible if you preserve the organ as a wholeOk, but
why is it
so
?Slide40
Forms of constitution
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Two forms of constitution from the parts to the whole: a system is a set of interacting elements (elements plus relations, that is structure)
from the whole to its elements: a system is an entity able to generate its parts (and their relations)
In the former case a system
is
a structure; in the latter case a system
generates
(and modifies) its structures – which implies that the system is not limited to its structure. I call ‘function’ this extra component
This generation requires internal models – the system must include a model of itself (and its environment)Impredicative or self-referntial systems Slide41
Bateson
Maturana
Varela
Hofstadter
Rosen
Luhmann
Capra
A problem that has been under discussion for more than 50 years… Slide42
Causal cycles (Bateson)Heterarchical loops (Capra)
Autopoietic systems (Maturana
)Self-referential systems (Luhmann)Strange loops (Hofstadter)Impredicative systems (Rosen)…
The Babel of
languages
…
It is my claim that Rosen went further than anybody else Slide43
Simple and complex
Simple systems areMainly formal
tools, often perfect for didactic purposesExceedingly rare among real systems, because the conditions for making possible a simple system are almost never met
(Most) real systems are complexWhen systems are sufficiently isolated from their environment, or when we can understand them sufficiently well by looking at their
parts only
(i.e., at their structure) we can treat them as simple
However, it is important to be aware that in so doing we may be dealing with
different
kinds of system
Treating a complex system as if it were simpleEnforcing/constraining a system to work within predetermined boundaries (which nevertheless can be crossed) – what happen when a system crosses those boundaries? Slide44
“Complex” vs. “as-if-it-were simple” system
Every complex system can be seen
as-if-it-were simpleE.g., by “freezing” its dynamics, transformation, or evolution
E.g., by considering only some of its degrees of liberty (e.g., by constraining its behavior, or its environment)
In fact, many real (that is, complex) systems can (reasonably) be treated as simple systems – because
most of the time
they predictably work within pre-established boundaries
Classical exceptions are provided by those systems that are so dangerous that
even a single failure
may end in disastrous outcomesAnother exception considers “fast systems”, where no time is available for reacting to failures (feed-forward cycles)The problem is that this strategy ends in Dismissing what really makes a complex system complex
Transforming complexity into complicatedness (i.e., treating a complex system as if it were a sufficiently complicated system)Slide45
Complex systems treated
as if they were simple
tend to generate wicked problems
Includes “complicated systems”
The two understandings
By default,
systems
are
simple
Some of
them
are
complicated
Occasionally
,
systems
are
complex
Wicked
systems
are
exceedingly
rare
By default,
systems
are
complex
Simple
systems
are
limiting
casesSlide46
Remark 1
The traditional, bureaucratic structure adopted by organizations and institutions (e.g., governments) derives
from an understanding of systems that precedes the discovery of complexityThese structures are tailored to addressing ‘complicated’ (in the above-specified sense) – not ‘complex’ – systems: they work as if problems could be addressed individually and in a piecemeal way, with outputs systematically proportionate to relevant inputs, they aim at managing and controlling the underlying
systems Slide47
Remark 2
While anticipation has been widely studied within a number of different disciplines – including biology, anthropology, cognitive and social sciences, research into anticipation is
deeply fragmentedMoreover, research has not kept pace with social and scientific demand for insights into these practices, their risks and their
usesSlide48
Remark 3
Things become even more interesting when one considers systems including models of themselves and their environment. Here is where the issue of ‘anticipatory systems’
arisesBy including a model of its environment, the system can ‘anticipate’ its future and may take decisions in the present moment according to the model’s
previsionsThis is primarily about
the
recognition of the empirical fact of anticipation
– I won’t claim it is a ‘guaranteed’ (rote or mechanical) recipe for success
This
possibility opens new avenues for research and the understanding of systems (Rosen, 1991, 2012)Slide49
http://www.projectanticipation.org
A First
Understanding of Anticipation
What
Next
?
A
Methodological
CaveatSlide50
When stepping up to the next
level?
http://www.projectanticipation.org
From forecast to foresightUnavailable or unreliable
data
Poor understanding of the event’s underlying laws and its conditioning factors
When the forecasts can affect the event we are trying to forecast
Qualitative and multi-disciplinary aspects
When the environment changes in novel and surprising ways
Exploration of multiple futuresFrom foresight to anticipationUncertainty (ambiguity – complexity) prevails Challenging and reframing mental models
Anticipation
Foresight
Forecast
Slide51
Beware!
http://www.projectanticipation.org
First: ForecastThen
: ForesightThen:
Anticipation
This
understanding
does
not rely on (a
proper understanding of) complexity
Anticipation
Foresight
Forecast
Slide52
The two
main situations
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Simple (and
complicated
)
cases
Past
– Future –
Present
Begin with quantitative analysis (forecasts)
Then step up to qualitative data (foresight)Then
make sense of the present (anticipation
)
Complex
cases
Present
– Future –
Past
First
develop
‘some’
understanding
of the
present
(anticipation)Then specify its qualitative aspects (foresight)And only at the end move to quantitative analyses (forecast)(+ iterations among them)
Anticipation
Foresight
Forecast
Anticipation
Foresight
Forecast
Slide53
Further steps
http://www.projectanticipation.org
If one feels and knows
that everything is ok, she has no reason to changeExploit or even create cognitive and
organizational
dissonance
“Make
things better by making them worse”
Anticipation
Foresight
Forecast
Anticipation
Foresight
Forecast
Slide54
Anticipation
We have seen fragments of the anticipatory perspective pointAnticipation forces a re-evaluation of the very idea of science While the theory of anticipation emerged from within biology, its scientific exploitation may have dramatic consequences for the human and social sciences
As a matter of fact all human and social sciences have accepted, to varying extents, what is possibly Newton’s most important implicit assumption, what Rosen called the Zeroth Commandment:
“Thou shalt not allow the future to affect the present” (Rosen 1991, 49)The Zeroth Commandment implies that all information comes from the past and no information comes from the
futureSlide55
Future information
At a first sight, the expression “information that is coming from the future” appears implausible
, unless one reads the expression “coming from the future” as concerning information conveyed by a model
of the system“Model” here is a shorthand
for a variety of situations including “theory”, “idea”, “guess”, “belief”, “hope” and “fear”
All them convey information on the future
Models can
be
explicit or
implicit, already embedded in the system or newly createdSlide56
Beware
An obvious mistake is to think that anticipation is a feature that we
possess because we are such highly complex and wonderfully sophisticated cognitive agentsThis is not
what the theory of anticipation claims Indeed, the major surprise arising from the theory of anticipation is that anticipation is a widespread phenomenon
present in and characterizing all types of realities
Life in all its varieties is anticipatory:
the brain works in an anticipatory way
the mind is obviously anticipatory
society and its structures are anticipatory
even non-living or non-biological systems can be anticipatory (providing they include models of themselves)Slide57
The main claims
Anticipation is a widespread
phenomenon present in and characterizing all types of realities
A proper understanding of anticipation requires the adoption of an innovative conceptual frameworkSlide58
The Three Levels of Futures Studieshttp://www.projectanticipation.org
Type
Nature
Window
Mental
model
Theory
Compl-exity
Orient-ation
Forecast
Previsive
(Primarily) ShortLong
NoGoodNo
Past-oriented
Foresight
Non
previsive
(
Primarily
)Inter-mediate
Partly
Poor
Poor
Future-
oriented
Anticip-ation
Non previsive(Primarily)Inter-mediateYes Presently under develop-ment
Good
Present-orientedSlide59
Conclusion
The results arising from the
sciences (including cognitive and social sciences) are fallible and incompleteNevertheless, they collectively provide a reasonably good grasp of
(aspects of) realityThe scientific image of reality will likely improve in the forthcoming decades and centuries
While many different and presently unknowable developments
will
be
needed in the
future, the present
task is to help making the transition from a primarily reactive to a primarily
anticipatory science