Jason Hamilton Thomas J Pfaff Glacier Pair Images httpwwwwindowsucareduteacherresourcesglacierthennowpdf A Look at Global Temperature Tx00005x 2 000527x57137 F Tx0001x000527 Fyear ID: 180847
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Slide1
Inflection Points and Polar Bears
Jason Hamilton
Thomas J. PfaffSlide2Slide3
Glacier Pair Images
http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdfSlide4
A Look at Global Temperature
T(x)=0.0005x
2
-0.00527x+57.137 F
T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year
x years after 1950
T(58)= 58.51 F and T’(58)=0.0528 F/yearIn 2008 the average global temperature was 58.51 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0528 deg F per year. - Now Ask a Question About This-Slide5
National Academies Report: Climate Change
The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the
rate of increase
is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.
-March 2006Slide6
Temperature Predictions
T(100)=61.60 F and T(150)=67.61 F
The model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.61 deg F, an increase of 3.49 and 9.48 deg F, respectively, since 2000.
–Now Ask a Question About This-Slide7
More Temperature Predictions
Using T’(58)=.0528 F/year
If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.24 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.37, respectively. Slide8Slide9
-National Academies Report on Climate Change
(March 2006)Slide10Slide11
Summary of Sea Ice
1980
Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59
Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79
Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44
Melt Period: 6.20 months
2008Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77Melt Period: 6.54 monthsSlide12
Who Cares?
D
Heat content of atmosphere & hydrosphere
Air Temperature &
D
Water Temperature
D
IceSlide13
D
Ice
Spatial Extent?
Thickness?
Timing of thaw?
Timing of re-freeze?
Ice characteristics?Slide14Slide15Slide16Slide17Slide18Slide19
January
Sept
March
June
Thaw
Freeze
Shrink
Grow
MalesSlide20Slide21
January
Sept
March
June
Thaw
Freeze
Den
Females
Leave den
Cubs
MateSlide22Slide23Slide24Slide25
So Who Cares? We Do.
?Slide26Slide27
Questions?Jason:
jhamilton@ithaca.edu
Tom:
tpfaff@ithaca.edu
Partly supported by NSF DUE-0837721