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Slide1

Conflict Management Regimes and the Management of Land, River, and Maritime Claims

Sara McLaughlin MitchellUniversity of Iowa

Andrew Owsiak

University of Georgia

Slide2

Motivation

Fact-finding missions

Innocuous form of conflict management

Usage of strategy varies tremendously

River claims: used repeatedly

Land claims:

only

if river also involved

Maritime claims: never

used

What explains this puzzling fact?

Our answer focuses on conflict management regimes, which are a function of 1) state interests and

issue

characteristics, 2) transaction costs, and 3) distribution of power

Institutionalization

occurs because of

disputants’ desire

to reduce transaction costs

and stabilize expectations

Slide3

Terminology

Regime: socially constructed institution containing a set of behavioral standards for managing interstate conflicts.Finnemore & Sikkink (1998), Keohane (1984), Ruggie (1998).Types of territorial claims (ICOW, Hensel et al 2008)

Slide4

Conflict Management Strategies

Binding

Non-Binding

Third-Party Conflict Management

Disputants Only

Greater Disputant

Control

Less

Disputant

Control

Negotiation

Bilateral

Multilateral

Good offices

Fact-finding

Mediation

Arbitration

Adjudication

(All) Peaceful Conflict Management

Slide5

Land Claims

Maritime Claims

River Claims

Issue Characteristics & State Interests

(CM Regime

Factor #1)

-High tangible & intangible salience;

-High domestic audience costs for issue

failure

-Global resource with high tangible salience;

-EEZ

claims similar to land claims

-High tangible salience;

-Regional resource management

-Interdependence

Transaction Costs

(CM Regime Factor #2)

-High;

borders are often negotiated separately

-Low; UNCLOS establishes CM rules/procedures

-Global

IGO involvement

-Medium; regional treaties/IGO

s for CM, but variance

-Bilateral vs. multilateral basins

Key Regime Events

-UN Charter recognizes

sovereignty , calls for peaceful settlement

-Some

principles established through legal judgments (e.g.

Uti

Possedetis

)

-Traditions of the law

of the sea;

-C

reation of UNCLOS

-Strong CM regime (ITLOS, Article 287)

-UN Convention

on Watercourses;

-Growing # of river treaties/RBOs

Slide6

Land Claims

Maritime Claims

River Claims

Hypotheses

-Bilateral negotiations used frequently

-Issues handled with 3PCM more frequently

than land or river claims, especially adjudication

-River claims more likely to involve fact finding (UN Convention).

-Higher salience land claims will involve CM

strategies with greater disputant control

-EEZ claims will be handled more like land claims with

bilateral negotiations and 3PCM that give disputants control

-Regional IGOs more likely to help settle river claims than land or maritime

claims.

-Arbitration preferred to adjudication

Slide7

Conflict Management Regime Factor #3:Distribution of Power

In asymmetric dyads:

Powerful can enforce preferences in bilateral negotiations

Powerful less swayed by third-party punishments/incentives

As asymmetry grows:

Hypotheses

Less conflict management of

all

kinds in asymmetric dyads

Less

involvement of global

IGO

We will not present these results, but the findings support these hypotheses.

Slide8

Research Design

ICOW, version 1.1 (1816/1900-2001): claim-dyad-year

Logistic & rare events logistic regression

Dependent variables:

C

onflict management strategies, and aggregate categories

Key independent variables:

Claim type: land, river, maritime (EEZ, non-EEZ)

Global IGO, regional IGO (any

c.m

.)

Control variables:

Claim salience

Recent MIDs, failed peaceful (any)

c.m

. attempts (10 year index)

Joint democracy

Relative capabilities (stronger/weaker)

Claim duration

Slide9

Slide10

Management of claims, 1816-2001

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

D.V.

All

c.m

.

Bil

. Neg.

All

t.p

.

Non-binding

Binding

Regional

IGO

Global IGO

Non

EEZ

-0.4486***

(0.1029)

-0.6255***

(0.1222)

0.1152

(0.1584)

0.2941*

(0.1643)

-0.9215*

(0.5282)

1.6500***

(0.3276)

-0.2809

(0.5788)

EEZ

-0.2246**

(0.1015)

-0.3295***

(0.1143)

0.2417

(0.1634)

0.2524

(0.1821)

0.1574

(0.3140)

1.3594***

(0.3704)

1.0349***

(0.3822)

River

0.2696**

(0.1111)

0.1715

(0.1233)

0.5627***

(0.1693)

0.6410***

(0.1805)

-0.0617

(0.4787)

2.1516***

(0.3404)

0.7538

(0.4881)

Slide11

Third-party Conf. Mgmt.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

D.V.

Good offices

Fact-finding

Mediation

Arbitration

Adjud

.

Multi. Neg.

Non

EEZ

-0.26612***

(1.0156)

None

-0.2778

(0.3786)

None

0.4232

(0.6320)

1.5406***

(0.2300)

EEZ

0.5396*

(0.2877)

None

-0.1212

(0.3148)

0.0092

(0.5503)

1.0207**

(0.5055)

0.6004*

(0.3424)

River

0.6808**

(0.3203)

2.9658***

(0.6702)

0.4685

(0.3103)

None

1.2937**

(0.5900)

0.4067

(0.3715)

Slide12

Slide13

Conclusions

Overview of our argument:

State

interests high, power asymmetry high, transaction costs low

→

states prefer

conflict management strategies

of greater

control

Control

+ potential for other actor involvement (function of transaction costs) →

conflict management regimes

Conflict management regimes have emerged historically

Maritime

More multilateral:

EEZ: global IGO (adjudication)

Non-EEZ: multilateral negotiation, no global IGO

Mixed support that EEZ mirrors land claims

Land:

Bilateral negotiations, less third-party (except: arbitration)

River:

Non-binding third-party conflict management (esp. fact-finding)

Limited multilateral framework (regional, not global)

Slide14

Questions and comments

Slide15

Appendix: Table 2, all

Slide16

Appendix: Table 3, all

Slide17

Slide18

Slide19

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