historical and projected winter precipitation in the Wasatch Range for the CIWATER project Court Strong Jim Steenburgh Trevor Alcott University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences ID: 220650
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Slide1
Dynamical downscaling of historical and projected winter precipitation in the Wasatch Range (for the CI-WATER project)
Court Strong, Jim Steenburgh, Trevor AlcottUniversity of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Headwaters Project scientists:
Roy
Rasmussen, Kyoko
Ikeda, …
NCARSlide2
OutlineBackgroundThe CI-WATER projectWasatch Range precipitation Regional modeling using WRF
Model configurationHistorical validation for water year 2008Future research plansSummarySlide3
CI-WATER ProjectPurpose is to advance cyberinfrastructure for high performance water resource modeling
Goal is to enhance the capacity for water resource planning and management in the Utah-Wyoming regionUtah-Wyoming collaboration funded through the NSF Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR)http://www.uwyo.edu/ci-water/Slide4
CI-WATER ProjectMy research goals for the Wasatch Range: Quantify the spread and central tendency of projected orographic
precipitation to 2060 Different global climate modelsDifferent greenhouse gas scenariosDifferent initial conditions Provide software that civil engineers can use to quickly generate realistic future precipitation and temperature scenariosSlide5
CI-WATER Project: my study region
wikipedia.orgI am currently focused on the Wasatch Range, and I plan to extend the study region to include portions of Wyoming and ColoradoSlide6
Wasatch Range precipitation
Mountain versus valley floor
annual cycles Slide7
Wasatch Range precipitation
Mean Annual Snowfall (inches)
Mean Annual Snowfall (inches)
50”
>600”
<150”
Steenburgh, unpublished
Spatial variability
Salt
Lake
ValleySlide8
Wasatch Range precipitationYeager et al. (Submitted, J. Appl. Meteor. Clim
.)
Alcott et al. (Submitted,
Mon.
Wea
. Rev.)Lake effect snowSlide9
Wasatch Range precipitationThe Large Ensemble ProjectOne model: CCSM3 (T42)
One forcing: A1B 2000-206140 simulations
Deser et al. (submitted)
Trends in precipitation [% per 55 years] expressed as a percentage of the model’s ensemble-mean climatology for 2005-2060.
Sensitivity to initial conditionsSlide10
Regional modeling: model configurationThe Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional weather and climate model Version 3.3.1 (Skamarock
et al. 2005)Configured following Headwaters Project (Rasmussen et al. 2011):Noah land surface modelMellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary layer schemeCommunity Atmosphere Model’s (CAM) longwave and shortwave schemes
Thompson et al. (2008) cloud microphysics schemeSlide11
Regional modeling: model configurationPrescribed a mean annual cycle for the Great Salt Lake surface temperature (
TG) based on first harmonic of monthly median observations 36 km
12 km
4 kmSlide12
Regional modeling: model configurationAdjusted the saturation vapor pressure to account for salinity of Great Salt Lake
36 km12 km
4 km
Gilbert Bay 12% salinity
Gunnison Bay 28% salinity
Steenburgh
et al. (2000),
Mon.
Wea
. Rev.Slide13
Regional modeling: model configurationLambert conformal projection, three domains
36 km
12 km
4 km
Boundary conditions:
6-houlry NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (38-km resolution).Water year 2007-2008Slide14
Regional modeling: model configurationResolution of topography
12 km4 km
Cedar
Stansbury
Oquirrh
Wasatch
Uinta
Salt Lake City
Salt FlatsSlide15
Regional modeling:
historical validation
WRF
Snotel
Precipitation (mm)
15 kmSlide16
Regional modeling:
historical validation
WRF
Snotel
Precipitation (mm)
15 kmSlide17
250-mb geopotential height 2008
28 Jan 12Z28 Jan 18Z
29 Jan 00Z
29 Jan 06Z
NCEP / NCAR ReanalysisSlide18
28 Jan 2008 12Z
mesowest.utah.eduSlide19
Sites where WRF overestimated
Louis Meadow
Hardscrabble
Ben
Lomand
BrightonSlide20
Future research plansAdditional historical validation runsBoundary force WRF with climate model projections
(CMIP5 runs)Develop software that civil engineers can use to quickly generate realistic future precipitation and temperature scenariosSlide21
Future research plans Software will generate stochastic precipitation and temperature scenarios that 1) are consistent with downscaled climate projections
2) exhibit realistic spatial correlations among basins
http://www.hiddenwaters.org
/
Citycreek
RedButte
Emigration
Parley’s
Mill
Creek
Neffs
Big
Cottonwood
Little
Cottonwood
Bells
Richardson et al. (1984)
Wilks
(1999)
Khalili
et al. (2011) Slide22
SummaryWithin CI-WATER project, my goals are quantify the spread and central tendency of projected Wasatch Range precipitation to 2060
develop stochastic hydrology scenario software for engineersRegional modeling: first resultsWRF configured following Headwaters ProjectModifications for the Great Salt LakeHistorical validation for 2008 water year: overestimates at four sites, realistic at seven sitesSlide23
Snowfall Sensitivity
Alta
Base
Mt. Baldy
PC Base
PC Top
+1
°
C +2°C +3°C +4°C
10%
20% 30% 40% 50%
Courtesy: John Horel and Leigh Jones, Univ. of Utah
Percent of snow that will instead fall as rain with warming
Alta
Base
Mt. Baldy
PC Base
PC Top
Alta
Base
Mt. Baldy
PC Base
PC Top
Alta
Base
Mt. Baldy
PC Base
PC TopSlide24
Wasatch Range: temporal variability
Dettinger et al. (2011) Water