PROUDLY PRESENTING BERNARD SALT Australias leading social commentator and futurist Scots School Albury Education in Regional Australia Preparing for the Jobs of the Future Bernard Salt ID: 749461
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Slide1
CELEBRATING 150 YEARS OF QUALITY EDUCATIONSlide2
PROUDLY PRESENTING
BERNARD SALT
Australia’s leading
social
commentator
and
futuristSlide3
Scots School Albury
Education in Regional
Australia: Preparing for the
Jobs of the Future
Bernard Salt
11 February 2016Slide4
Disclaimer
These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis.
Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions.
Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.Slide5
Sydney
Melbourne
Hobart
Adelaide
Perth
Darwin
Brisbane
Canberra
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Australians have always been driven by lifestyle
Areas of high population growth (>2% pa)
and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and
2014
WINNERS
LOSERSSlide6
Lifestyle and resources cities are projected to rise fastest
1954
1
Sydney
1,863
2
Melbourne
1,524
3
Brisbane
502
4
Adelaide
484
5
Perth
349
6
Newcastle
178
7
Hobart
95
8
Wollongong
91
9
Geelong
72
10
Launceston
4911Ballarat4812Toowoomba4313Rockhampton41
14
Townsville4015Ipswich3916Bendigo3717
Broken Hill3118Canberra2819Blue Mountains2320Kalgoorlie232014
1
Sydney4,8412Melbourne
4,4403Brisbane 2,2754Perth2,0215Adelaide1,3056Gold Coast - Tweed
615
7
Newcastle - Maitland
431
8
Canberra - Queanbeyan
423
9Sunshine Coast29810Wollongong28911Greater Hobart21912Geelong18413Townsville18014Cairns14715Greater Darwin13916Toowoomba11417Ballarat9918Bendigo9219Albury - Wodonga8820Launceston87
20501Sydney7,6882Melbourne7,6703Perth4,6334Brisbane4,1885Adelaide1,7976Gold Coast - Tweed1,2257Canberra - Queanbeyan7228Newcastle - Maitland5889Sunshine Coast50310Wollongong38411Townsville34012Geelong30113Greater Hobart26514Cairns22515Greater Darwin20916Toowoomba19717Mackay19318Ballarat18119Bendigo16120Rockhampton142
Population figures expressed in ‘000s
Source: Based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities
2014-502,8473,2302,6121,9134926112991572069516111746786983108826962
% growth
59%
73%
129%
84%
38%
99%
71%
36%
69%
33%
89%
64%
21%
53%
50%
73%
122%
83%
75%
75%Slide7
Net change in Albury & Wodonga LGA population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data;
KPMG
Demographics
Growth in school-age kids, young families and retirees in Albury-Wodonga
2004-2014: 9,200 (80,000 to 89,200)
2014-2024: 11,400 (89,200 to 100,600)
Kids & teenagers
Suburbia
Young
adults
Professional development
Active retirees
Coaching & skills transfer
Mature
adults
Home office & re-skilling
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
–
4
5
–
9
10
–
14
15
–
19
20
–
24
25
–
29
30
–
34
35
–
39
40
–
44
45
–
49
50
–
54
55
–
59
60
–
64
65
–
69
70
–
74
75
–
79
80
–
84
85+Slide8
Australians are changing the way they live at each stage of the lifecycle
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data;
KPMG Demographics
0
90
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Child
Adult
Old
1936
Child
Teen
Old
Adult
1976
71
Child
Adolescence
Lifestyle
Old
Retired
2016
Adult
82
63
Change in life expectancy over 80 years in AustraliaSlide9
From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds
Source: KPMG
Demographics
Forgotten generation
Wrong place … wrong time
No workplace guilt
Angsty about Ys
Peak career
X
GENERATION
Born 1965 – 1982
Today 34 – 51
Hierarchical
Indulged their kids
Depression era parents
Sandwich generation
Downshifting
BABY
BOOMERS
Born 1946 – 1964
Today 52 – 70
Y
GENERATION
Special … bubble-wrap
Chaotic connection
Entrepreneurials
Disappointed generation?
Household formation
Born 1983 – 2000
Today 16 – 33
Parents results-oriented
Youth in straitened timesHighly educated, global
Pragmatists … fixers
School kidsZGENERATIONBorn 2001 – 2019Today 0 – 15Slide10
Generational shift in the way Australians work
Healthcare
& Social
Assist.
Professional
/
Scientific/Tech
.
Public Admin
&
Safety
Accom & Food
Admin & Support
Mining
Education
&
Training
Arts & Recreation
Financial
&
Insurance
Other Services
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Rental/hiring &
Real Estate
Info
Media &
Telecoms
Manufacturing
Electricity/Gas/Water & Waste
Agriculture/Forestry & FishingTransport/Postal/WarehouseConstructionSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG DemographicsHealthcare & Social Assist
Professionals & Sciences
Education15 years November 2015 – up 3.0m (8.9m – 11.9m)
ConstructionNov 2000 – Nov 2015 (000)Jobs grown: 3,292Jobs contracted: 326Net jobs added: 2,965
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Slide11
The way we live has changed … Australians are forever in pursuit of lifestyle
1950s
TodaySlide12
Two groups shaping the future labour force
Source: KPMG Demographics
Depth of experience & good relationships
Ideal Global Corporate Citizen
Has a ‘global mindset’
Possibly spent time in the military
Possesses and employs cultural sensitivity
Experience in running a division or
program
May have lived abroad in youth
Second language to English
Law degree & business degree eg MBA
Agreeable or moveable spouse/partner
Aged
38-42
The Reality of Generation Y
Yet to prove themselves beyond good times
& through
the GFC
Children of rich, guilty and indulgent baby boomer parents
Exposure to different cultures via technology
Possibly involved in volunteer work abroad
Backpacker, GAP or OE year
Widely travelled; possibly second language
No mortgage; deferrable debt
No relationship commitments
Aged 15-30
Moves frequently between jobsSlide13
Source: Icons made by Freepik from
www.flaticon.com
; KPMG Demographics
The best things parents can do for their kids
Build the soft
skills
of sociability, adaptability and resilience
1
Be aware that the future belongs to
knowledge workers
and to the skilled
2
Impart life skills such as the
ability to save
, to plan, to manage
3
Present
role models
to children … show them what’s possible
4
Love
them
5Slide14
@
bernardsalt
Bernard Salt Demographer
linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt
bsalt@kpmg.com.au
+61 3 9288 5047
www.bernardsalt.com.au
@bernardsalt
ConnectSlide15
CELEBRATING 150 YEARS OF QUALITY EDUCATION