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Slide1
Title goes here
Forex System Development Workshop
www.fxrenew.com
Justin Paolini
& his model of Boyscout TradingSlide2
FX Renew Disclaimer
The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. This website is owned and operated by FX Renew Pty Ltd ABN 50 168 652 542 the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) to carry on financial services business in Australia, limited to the financial services covered by its AFSL no.455388.
Any advice included in this webinar is general advice only and is based solely on consideration of the investment or trading merits of the financial products alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs (i.e. financial circumstances) of any particular person. Before making an investment or trading decision based on the general advice, the recipient should carefully consider the appropriateness of the advice in light their financial circumstances and should carefully review the FSG and terms and conditions of this website. FX Renew is not liable for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Past results are not a guarantee of future performance.
RISK DISCLOSURE:
Trading foreign exchange carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage available can magnify profits and as well as losses. You can lose more than your initial deposit. Before trading, please carefully consider the risks and inherent costs and seek independent advice as required. Please contact us, to discuss any questions or concerns you may have, we are here to help.Slide3
Welcome
G’day
, Howdy, Guten Tag
, Ni Hao, Вітаю, Hallo, Konnichiwa,
Chào and welcome to this session of the Forex System Development Workshop.Slide4
Live and Interactive
Don’t be a
Shy Sally
or a Bashful Barry, ask questions, take your time. Slide5
Title goes here
Forex System Development Workshop
www.fxrenew.com
Boyscout TradingSlide6
About Justin
Industry Experience within CIBC WM, Salex SpA, FXCM & Masters Degree in Finance & Banking
However...
Could not avoid enrollment in the School of Hard KnocksWithout knowledge of market microstructure & participant behavioural patterns, learning curve is almost “too” steep.Slide7
Trading Style
Trend/Momentum Trader
I work a 4-step rule-based model:
1. Idenfity the likely sentiment influences and the corresponding FX pairs, Commodities or Indices that should be influenced;2. Rank
the instruments selected, based on the quality of their trend3. Execute the trades via pullback or breakout (whatever suits the ever evolving maket conditions)
4. Manage the trades based on space available (ATR), time objectives (intraday or multiday holding period), common sense.Slide8
1. Market Type
My edge is very specific
and it comes from a keen understanding of 1 precise market type: a trend.
The market type gives me a
BIAS.
I’m Flat or LongI’m flat or ShortLook at the next 3 charts. In
10 seconds
you should know what your Bias is
on your primary Time Frame
of Reference…..Slide9
1. Market Type
A chart is worth 1000 words…
Clearly trending!Slide10
1. Market Type
A chart is worth 1000 words…
Mmm…not as clear…consolidation in a downtrend? Slide11
1. Market Type
A chart is worth 1000 words…
Clearly Trending! Slide12
2. Sentiment Overlay
“What is important is to assess what the market is focusing on at the given moment.”
– Bill LipschutzSlide13
2. Sentiment Overlay Slide14
2. Sentiment Overlay
- It takes uncertainty, or diverging opinions about the future value of something, to generate exchange.
Volatility is essentially event-risk orchestrated. Strong Themes = Strong Trends
No Theme = No Trend
When Sentiment & Technicals align = high odds!Slide15
3. Role of Entries
Efficiency (MAE/MFE)
Risk:Reward (Multiple-R potential)Slide16
3. Role of Entries Slide17
3. Role of Entries
80% of my trades are initiated during the London Morning
No “gambling” on news events Yes to “reaction” post news event (but you need to have done your sentiment homework)
“Don’t give up the Ghost until the London Fix is toast” means that after the London Fix, volumes drop and trade success can be limited.Slide18
4. ATR Safety NetSlide19
4. ATR Safety Net
Importance of ATR is highest for Intraday Trading
Greatly assists in determining odds
Becomes Irrelevant when market is cooking on Risk Slide20
5. Trade Management by Objectives
Intraday/Intrasession
Day TradeMulti-DayPosition
“I only traded on the first day of the competition, then I simply managed the position”Slide21
5. Trade Management by Objectives
Intraday/Intrasession
Targeting 70% of ATR and/or Previous Session Highs/LowsSlide22
5. Trade Management by Objectives
Multi-Day
Stops around 70% of ATR, Targeting Weekly ATR LevelsSlide23
BOYSCOUT TRADING
Where is the action likely to be today/this week?
Which are the best candidates?Execute Manage (objectives, ATR, market behaviour)
Rinse & RepeatSlide24
Position Sizing
Fixed % of Consolidated Equity
Ex. 10000 Euros Consolidated Equity
0.5% per position = 0.005*10000 = 50 Euros(50 Euros/(SL pips * pip value/lot))/100000
So a larger SL will allow for a smaller position; a smaller SL will allow for a larger position.Slide25
Risk ManagementSlide26
The Three Most Important Things
Keep it simple & subtle (complexity will kill your account)
Use your common sense and train it. If something doesn’t look right, get out. If the coast is clear, don’t bail. But you can only make sensible assessments if you’ve trained your instincts by repeating the same analysis/decision making process time & time again. That’s why I’m in favour of systematic/rule-based methods.
Risk very little each trade. Survive to trade another day.Slide27
Questions Slide28
Title goes here
Forex System Development Workshop
www.fxrenew.com
THANK YOU