population trends Branislav Šprocha Centre for Social and Psychological Sciences SAS Boris Vaňo INFOSTAT Demographic Research Center Global Megatrends ID: 574665
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Diverging" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Diverging population trends
Branislav ŠprochaCentre for Social and Psychological Sciences SASBoris VaňoINFOSTAT – Demographic Research Center
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide2
Global Megatrends
and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice IntroductionUntil 1990 the old (socialist
) model of reproductive behaviour, Transformation in the 1990s,Present – gradual
stabilization of reproduction
Population projection
2015 – 2050
Population
prediction
2050 - 2100Slide3
Global Megatrends
and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Demographic determinants (for future population
development)Fertility, mortality, migrationWorld
population development
- developing
vs
.
developed
countries
(
first
and
second
demographic
transition
)
European
population
developmet
-
west
vs
.
east
Slovakia –
significant
changes
after
1990
Expected
population
developmentSlide4
Fertility
marked by „postponement“ and „recuperation“Global Megatrends and the Slovak
Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide5
Total
cohort fertility rate
?? 1971...
Global
Megatrends
and
the
Slovak
Republic
19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice
Children per woman
CohortSlide6
Structure
of women by number of children
and cohort
Global
Megatrends
and
the
Slovak
Republic
19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice
Proportion
(%)
CohortSlide7
Cohort
fertility rates
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice
Children per womanSlide8
Mean
age at 1. birthTotal fertility rateSlide9
Mortality
our life is extended – but...Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide10
Life
expectancy at birthYears
FemalesMales
Global Megatrends and the Slovak
Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide11
Life
expectancy at birth in selected European countries - males
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice
Years
The „Western bloc“
The „Eastern bloc“Slide12
Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Years
Life expectancy at birth in selected European
countries - females
The „Western bloc“
The „Eastern bloc“Slide13
Life expectancy at
birth - MALESLife expectancy at birth - FEMALESSlide14
Migration
???Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide15
Net migration – red
positive, blue negativeSlide16
Population projection
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide17
Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Population
projection of Slovakia 2015 - 2100Slide18
Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Projection
of population
mean
age in Slovakia 2015 - 2100Slide19
Age
structure 2050
20502050
2014
2014
MALES
FEMALES
Global
Megatrends
and
the
Slovak
Republic
19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Slide20
Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Projection
of main
age
groups in Slovakia 2015 - 2100Slide21
Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Projection
of main
age
groups in Slovakia 2015 – 2100 (in %)Slide22
Global
Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice Population
projection in Slovak districts
2012-2035