Andrew Graham School of Policy Studies Queens University wwwandrewbgrahamca 1 Public Sector Transformation 2018 Delivering Digital November 20 2018 2 Pracademic What That Pracademic ID: 909471
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THE ARCHITETURE OF FAILURE: TIME AND TIME AGAIN
Andrew GrahamSchool of Policy Studies Queens University
www.andrewbgraham.ca
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Public Sector Transformation 2018: Delivering Digital,
November 20, 2018
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Pracademic: What That?
Pracademic
Federal ADM – 14 Years
In Jail
President, APEX
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Slide3Research, Teaching and Writing
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Slide5Globally we see a consistent pattern of failures in policy and project implementation. The evidence is clear. Still, we continue to treat implementation built on the biases, faulty logic and dogged determination to ignore the lessons of past behaviour.
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Slide6A More Positive BLUF
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We now know enough, backed by ample evidence that confirms common sense about how to better structure policy, its implementation and our major projects to avoid failure. Can we do it?
Slide7Why Focus on Failure?
For the most part, government does its job very well, given its multiple bottom lines.
Error, failure and controversy are inevitable in such a complex world.
But, can they be prevented? Yes they can, sometimes. We move on from failure, dust ourselves off and turn to the next issue.
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Slide8Why Focus on Failure?
We seldom sit down and reflect and learn. We either are too busy fighting off the inquiries and audits than actually integrating the learning we can glean.
When was the last time you sat down with a colleague and said, “Gee, you really messed that up. Tell me, what can I learn from you about what to avoid in the future.”
When was the last time your organization had a training session led by someone who really messed up?And, yet, just as failure is part of our lives and what we do, we tend to let it pass. Not good.
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Slide9What I am Going to Do to Convince You Of This
Quick review of recent research and publications from UK, Australia and the United States
Picking out common thematics
– amazing similarities Look at some common solutionsConjecture on whether they will ever be implemented
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An Increasing Interest Around the World
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Slide11The Research Articles, among many…….
The Blunders of Government
, 2013, Anthony King & Ivor Crewe
Learning from Failure, 2015,Peter Shergold, Commonwealth of Australia
A Cascade of Failures: Why Government Fails, and How to Stop It
, Paul C. Light, Brookings Institute
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Add Research into Phoenix and OAG Reports
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What follows is a distillation of the most recent research on failure.
Just what was common in major failures around the world?
Slide13Announcement Equals Accomplishment
Just cutting a ribbon doesn’t cut it. This is when all the big actors are there to cut that ribbon but not there to see the project through or back up the implementation when it hits heavy waters. This takes us to governance quickly.
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Slide14Bluster Leads to Blunder
Expectations of performance, timely delivery and anticipated savings are raised too high, deadlines come too fast and the actual cost of implementation is estimated. Has anyone heard of
underpromise and overdeliver?
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Slide15Cultural Disconnect
This occurs between the formulators of the policy or response and those who had to carry it out and those affected by the policy. Let’s just call it elitism for short. It involves different views of the problem and the challenges. It also involves differing interpretation of
warning signs – did someone say Phoenix? The saga of ORNGE in Ontario.
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Slide16Handover Mentality
The designers of a policy, program or response ignore the messy part called implementation. Let’s also call this operational disconnect. When you hear the phrase “We just hand over the policy for the field to implement.” get very nervous.
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Slide17Killing Those Trying to Tell Truth to Power
Not encouraging combative debate or seeking gainsayers in both the design and setting up of implementation. Don’t just shoot the messenger, exclude them from the process. Think Groupthink.
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This is also where availability bias comes in.
Slide18Failure to Backward Map
Policy designers and implementers often are guilty of optimistic bias (What possibly could go wrong?) when, in fact, they should be looking at the end goal and working backwards to identify both what could go wrong, but how the whole process will roll out. Instead, they focus on the beginning, the announcement, the first stages.
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Slide19Many Moving Parts
We hear the word complexity a lot and most of the failures researched pointed to the increasing complexity in failed implementations, well beyond IT, and the failure to map that out.
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Slide20Busy and Distracted
If a policy is just the flavour of the week and something else is next week, it starts to lose momentum, needed attention, reaction and adaptation to inevitable challenges and gears start to slip. This is where effective implementation governance over time comes into play.
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If a policy is just the flavour of the week and something else is next week, it starts to lose momentum, needed attention, reaction and adaptation to inevitable challenges and gears start to slip. This is where effective implementation governance over time comes into play.
Slide21Churn of Actors
At both the political and bureaucratic level this is a consistent theme in projects failing or in governments responding poorly to crises as they arise. The champion for a policy simply moves on and her successor is left to decide how much energy to put into someone else’s pet project. Similarly, the rapid turnover of senior managers in government often leaves well intentioned people to respond to emergencies in areas where they have little experience.
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Slide22Emerging Science of Cognitive Biases
Cognitive biases tend to confirm beliefs we already have.
Biases block new information.We need biases to short-hand our interpretation of events. Our experiences are our greatest asset and greatest liability in this process.
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Confirmation Bias
Hindsight Bias
Anchoring Bias
False Consensus Bias
Self Serving Bias
Availability Heuristic
Optimism Bias
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Is there a way forward?
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Failing Forward: Plan for the Worst
Requisite Variety
Multiple Channel Risk Analysis
Sticky Governance
Cultural Heterogeneity
Test Drive & Shop Around
Bias Recognition – The Curmudgeon
Memory Capture as a Survival Tool
Small then Large: Experiment: Fail Small and Quickly
Build Understanding of the Cognitive Environment
Slide27Back to the Bottom Line – You Choose
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Globally we see a consistent pattern of failures in policy and project implementation. The evidence is clear. Still, we continue to treat implementation built on the biases, faulty logic and dogged determination to ignore the lessons of past behaviour.
We now know enough, backed by ample evidence that confirms common sense about how to better structure policy, its implementation and our major projects to avoid failure. Can we do it?
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The Need for Holistic Thinking
Slide29Come Take Canada’s Premier Professional Master of Public Administration
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