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Slide1
2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape
.
Joe Stewart
Executive Directorjstewart@ncfef.org(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEFSlide2
What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?
fear … anxiety … anger
Certain UncertaintySlide3Slide4Slide5
Voter attitude volatility very highSlide6
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
P
artisan topography of NChas shifted from
West v. EasttoUrban v. RuralNC CVBCOMP
In URBAN – RURAL partisan alignmentSUBURBS = BATTLE GROUND
50%Non-NativeMost RuralUrban StateContinued growthSlide7
North Carolina Registered VotersSlide8
50% of NC Registered Voters Live in 13 Counties
White
BlackAm Indian
OtherHispanicMale
Female46.55%
58.07%18.19%65.95%63.73%49.62%50.20%
Democrats
RepublicansLibertariansUnaffiliated51.26%
46.38%
56.78%
52.36%Slide9
NC Population Growth Not Even
49 NC counties have lost population since 2010(2014 Census Bureau Data)Slide10
Partisan Ideological Trends 1998 - 2016
Chart tracks the self-described ideology of North Carolina voters from 1998 – 2016. Source, North Carolina polling data from Capitol Communications, conducted by Diversified Research, Inc.
Courtesy of Strategic Partners Solutions, LLCSlide11
Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation
Dr. Michael Bitzer
Catawba CollegeSlide12
RESEARCH TRIANGLE - 27 point swing
08: D +21%
04:
R +6%Obama v. Kerry = +130,339Obama 2012: +18%
PIEDMONT TRIAD - 15 point swing 08: D +1% 04: R +14%
Obama v. Kerry = +81,319Obama 2012: +2%In NC, Obama (2008) won 334,876 more votes than Kerry (2004) in core Metros
CHARLOTTE METRO - 18 point swing
08: D +7% 04: R +11%Obama v. Kerry = +123,218Obama 2012: +4%Slide13Slide14Slide15
US Senate
Haugh – (L)
Burr - (R) - I
Ross
- (D)Slide16Slide17
NC Congressional
Districts
DIST CVB RATING
Strong Rep
Leans Rep
Strong DemNC’s Members inUSHouse10–3
6
4
3
2 – Holding (R)
5 – Foxx (R)
6 –
Walker (R)
9 – Pittenger (R)
10 – McHenry (R)
11 – Meadows (R)
3 – Jones (R)
7 – Rouzer (R)
8 – Hudson (R)
13 - OPEN
1 – Butterfield (D)
4 – Price (D)
12 – Adams (D)Slide18
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
H
B2
Cecil
– (L)McCrory (R) - ICooper - (D)Slide19
Statewide Executive Branch ($ = COH 6/30)
GOV
Roy Cooper
$9.4MM Pat McCrory $6.3MM Lon Cecil
$700
LT GOVLinda Coleman
$97,889 Dan Forest
$210,436 Jacki Cole
AG OPEN
Josh Stein
$2.1MM
Buck Newton
$230,000
INS
Wayne
Goodwin
$737,270
Mike
Causey
$15,312
AUD
Beth Wood
$49,699
Chuck Stuber
$12,177
SOS
Elaine Marshall
$129,408
Michael
LaPaglia
$4,943
LAB
Charles Meeker
$108,078
Cherie Berry
$61,149
AGR
Walter Smith
$20,705
Steve Troxler
$61,711
SPI
June Atkinson
$64,264
Mark Johnson
$129,939
ST
OPEN
Dan Blue III
$129,172
Dale Folwell
$418,203 Slide20
Statewide Executive Branch Civitas Poll – Sept 15
LT GOV
Linda Coleman
39%
Dan Forest
35%AG OPEN
Josh Stein
37%
Buck Newton
35%
INS
Wayne
Goodwin
38%
Mike
Causey
32%
AUD
Beth Wood
37%
Chuck Stuber
30%
SOS
Elaine Marshall
42%
Michael
LaPaglia
31%
LAB
Charles Meeker
35%
Cherie Berry
41%
AGR
Walter Smith
33%
Steve Troxler
41%
SPI
June Atkinson
42%
Mark Johnson
34%
ST
OPEN
Dan Blue III
37%
Dale Folwell
32%Slide21
Impact of Straight Ticket Voting
2012 Election:
4,542,488 – 68.4% (56.7% straight ticket)
President
4,505,372
99.2%
US Senate
1
Gov
4,468,295
98.4%
2
Lt Gov
4,368,598
96.2%
8
Sec of
State
4,334,199
95.4%
5
Agriculture
4,328,640
95.3%
7
Labor
4,319,766
95.1%
9
Super
Pub Instruct
4,307,490
94.8%
10
State
Treasurer
4,298,704
94.6%
6
Insurance
4,292,945
94.5%
4
Auditor
4,281,080
94.2%
3
Atty Gen
2,828,941
62.3%Slide22Slide23
CVB for NC SENATE
34 REP – 16 DEM
STRONG DEM
(16)
COMPETITIVE (4)
LEAN REP (6)
STRONG REP (24)
28
Robinson
Guilford
21
Clark
Hoke
19
Meredith
Cumberland
8
Rabon
Brunswick
50
Davis
Macon
24
Gunn
Alamance
39
Rucho
(NR)
Mecklenburg
40
Waddell*
Mecklenburg
5
Davis
Greene
1
Cook
Beaufort
9
Lee*
New Hanover
46
Daniel
Burke
47
Hise
Mitchell
31
Krawiec
Forsyth
38
Ford
Mecklenburg
13
Smith*
Robeson
25
McInnis*
Richmond
15
Alexander*
Wake
27
Wade
Guilford
2
Sanderson
Pamlico
44
Curtis
Lincoln
14
Blue
Wake
23
Foushee
Orange
18
Barefoot
Wake
10
B. Jackson
Sampson
11
Newton (NR)
Wilson
45
Ballard**
Watauga
35
Tucker
Union
20
McKissick
Durham
22
Woodard
Durham
12
Rabin
Harnett
6
Brown
Onslow
48
Apodaca
(NR)
Henderson
42
Wells
*
Catawba
4
Bryant
Nash37J. JacksonMecklenburg17BarringerWake41TarteMecklenburg36Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus33Bingham (NR)Davidson3Smith-Ingram*Edgecombe16Chaudhuri**Wake26BergerRockingham43HarringtonGaston30RandlemanWilkes32Lowe*Forsyth49Van Duyn*Buncombe*freshman **appointeditalics = winnerNR = not running in 20167PateWayne34BrockDavie29TillmanRandolphSlide24
STRONG DEM (
37)
LEAN REP (14)
STRONG REP (59)
29
L. Hall
Durham
114
Fisher
Buncombe
66
Goodman
Richmond
118
Presnell
Yancey
55
Brody
Union
86
Blackwell
Burke
110
Hastings
Gaston
96
Adams
*
Catawba
106
Cunningham
Mecklenburg
42
Lucas
Cumberland
39
Jackson
Wake
49
Pendleton*
Wake
14
Cleveland
Onslow
82
Pittman
Cabarrus
77
Warren
Rowan
69
Arp
Union
102
Carney
Mecklenburg
5
Hunter
Hertford
50
Meyer
Orange
9
Murphy**
Pitt
36
Dollar
Wake
15
Shepard
Onslow
98
Bradford
*
Mecklenburg
13
McElraft
Carteret
31
Michaux
Durham
32
Baskerville (NR)
Garrison
Vance
LEAN DEM (2)
45
Szoka
Cumberland
40
Avila
Wake
109
Bumgardner
Gaston
91
Hall**
Stokes
81
Brown
(NR)
Davidson
33
Gill
Wake
72
Hanes
Forsyth
54
Reives
Lee
63
Ross
Alamance
37
Stam (NR)Wake26Daughtry (NR)Johnston74ConradForsyth87Robinson(D. Hall)Caldwell99R. MooreMecklenburg100Cotham (NR)AutryMecklenburg44Richardson**Cumberland53LewisHarnett62BlustGuilford16MillisPender104Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg76FordRowan38Lewis HolleyWake23Willingham*EdgecombeCOMP (8)93JordanAshe111T. MooreCleveland83JohnsonCabarrus10J. BellWayne95FraleyIredell60Brockman*Guilford47C. GrahamRobeson119QueenHaywood1SteinburgChowan75LambethForsyth19DavisNew Hanover84R. TurnerIredell89SetzerCatawba58Sgro*
Guilford
30
Luebke
Durham
2
Yarborough*
Person
65
Jones
Rockingham
88BryanMecklenburg4DixonDuplin17IlerBrunswick68HornUnion107AlexanderMecklenburg43FloydCumberland22BrissonBladen3SpecialeCraven25CollinsNash59HardisterGuilford108TorbettGaston94ElmoreWilkes56InskoOrange21L. BellSampson92Moore**Mecklenburg51Salmon*Harnett103BrawleyMecklenburg61FairclothGuilford105Stone**Mecklenburg79HowardDavie24Farmer-ButterfieldWilson7RichardsonFranklin115Ager*Buncombe64RiddellAlamanceGrange**New Hanover52BolesMoore97SaineLincoln48PierceScotland18HamiltonNew Hanover6Tine (NR)Dare116B. Turner*BuncombeRogers**Rutherford117McGradyHenderson85DobsonMcDowell71TerryForsyth34G. MartinWake8S. MartinWilson35MaloneWakeWhitmire (NR)Transylvania120West (NR)Cherokee73Zachary*Yadkin57HarrisonGuilford12GrahamLenoir41Adcock*Wake28Langdon (NR)Johnston80WatfordDavidson27WrayNorthampton11D. HallWake*freshman **appointed italics = winnerNR = not running in 201690StevensSurry70HurleyRandolph101EarleMecklenburg46Waddell (NR)Columbus67BurrStanly78McNeillRandolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNASlide25
NC General
Assembly
DIST
CVB RATINGSR
LR
COMPLD
SD
CURRENT
NC House
74
–
45
–1
59
14
8
3R 4D 1U
2
37
NC Senate
34
–
16
24
6
4
4 GOP
0
16Slide26
NC
General Assembly
DIST CVB RATING
SR
LR
COMPLD
SD
CURRENT
NC House
74
–
45
–1
59
14
8
3R 4D 1U
2
37
NC Senate
34
–
16
24
6
4
4 GOP
0
16
2016 ELECTION
OUTCOME
WON
LIKELY
TOSS UP
LIKELY
WON
PROB
PROB
NC
House
71
2
4
4
39
NC Senate
26
7
1
0
16
Worst case scenario, Trump drag on down-ballot GOP candidatesSlide27
NC General Assembly
DIST CVB RATING
SR
LR
COMP
LD
SD
CURRENT
NC House
74
–
45
–1
59
14
8
3R 4D 1U
2
37
NC Senate
34
–
16
24
6
4
4 GOP
0
16
2016 ELECTION
OUTCOME
WON
LIKELY
TOSS UP
LIKELY
WON
PROB
PROB
NC
House
Super Majority = 72
71
2
4
4
39
NC Senate
Super Majority
= 30
26
7
1
0
16
Worst case scenario, Trump drag on down-ballot GOP candidates
+8
+3Slide28
What’s ‘likely’
No straight ticket voting – lines and delays, down-ballot bleed off of total votes castUnknown implication of ‘skippers’ in Presidential raceAt some point, a Trump
‘free-fall’ lessens impact on down-ballot RepublicansTrump/HB2 impact on incumbent legislative Republicans mostly in suburban districts Some legislative races likely to be as much about local issues as Trump/HB2Slide29
What’s ‘likely’
Clinton campaign STAY/LEAVE decision soon<35 YO & African American voter turnout really matters (to win NC, Clinton needs AA to be 22%)Burr needs full-on effort thru Election Day; Ross tied to Clinton performance
McCrory must ‘displaced’ HB2/Trump impact among White Women to win; Cooper tied to Clinton performance (but less so)State Legislative partisan balance likely close to current numbersSlide30
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF