How Procedural Rules Affect Obstructionism Molly C Jackman Governance Studies Brookings Institution Obama and gun c ontrol Acceptance speech 2008 Dont tell me we cant uphold the 2nd Amendment while keeping AK47s out of the hands of criminals ID: 709307
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Slide1
Overcoming Legislative Gridlock:How Procedural Rules Affect Obstructionism
Molly C. Jackman
Governance Studies
Brookings InstitutionSlide2
Obama and gun control
Acceptance speech, 2008:
“Don’t tell me we can’t uphold the 2nd Amendment while keeping AK-47s out of the hands of criminals.”
January 2011 (after
Tuscon
shooting):
“That's why our focus right now should be on sound and effective steps that will actually keep those irresponsible, law-breaking few from getting their hands on a gun in the first place.”
July 2012 (after Aurora shooting):
“I…believe that a lot of gun owners would agree that AK-47s belong in the hands of soldiers, not in the hands of criminals.
January 2013 (after Newton shooting):
“in the coming weeks I’ll use whatever power this office holds” in an effort “aimed at preventing more tragedies like this.”
September 2013 (after Naval Yard shooting):
“No other advanced nation endures this kind of violence — none…And there is nothing inevitable about it. It comes about because of decisions we make or fail to make. And it falls upon us to make it different.”Slide3
Public opinion on gun
c
ontrolSlide4
Congressional action on gun control
In the 113
th
Congress, 72 bills have been introduced.
56 to restrict gun rights.
16 to expand gun rights.
Zero have become law (so far…).Slide5
Most bills do not receive a vote!In this session, 8/72 bills reported from committee, and one received a floor vote.
112
th
Congress:
28 bills
introduced
to restrict gun rights.
Four made it out of committee.
Four received a floor vote.
Three passed chamber where introduced (House).
Zero made it out of committee in the Senate.
26 bills
introduced
to expand gun rights.
Zero made it out of committee.Slide6
Progress of Bills in the House
Source: Congressional Bills Project.Slide7
What causes legislative inaction?
Bad bills get blocked.
Majority party size.
Reid almost didn’t bring assault weapons ban to a vote, because he knew it would be DOA in the House.
Polarization within and across parties.
15 red state Democratic Senators voted against ban.
Highest level of party unity in House history.
These factors cannot account for the totality of obstructionism!
Need
procedural rules
to facilitate bill blocking.Slide8
Procedural rules in the U.S. House
Committees can block bills (i.e., decline to hear them or to report them).
Speaker and Rules Committee have lots of discretion to determine the order of bills on the calendar.Slide9
Majority party gatekeeping
The majority party has a
gatekeeping right
if procedures allow it
not
to act on a proposal, and the result of inaction is that the status quo policy remains in effect.
E.g., majority appointed committees can block bills, majority leader sets floor agenda.
The majority party has
gatekeeping power
if it has a gatekeeping right and that right produces an
outcome
that is preferable to the one that would have occurred absent the right.
Do majority party gatekeeping rights lead to increased majority party power?Slide10
Do majority party gatekeeping rights
power?
Do majority party gatekeeping rights increase majority party power
above and beyond
the size and heterogeneity of parties?
Ideally, need a baseline model:
What are legislative outcomes absent majority party gatekeeping rights?
Impossible in U.S. House.
How does variation in majority party gatekeeping rights explain variation in legislative outcomes?
Rules change infrequently and simultaneously. Cannot identify cause and effect.Slide11
New strategyLook at the states!
Tons of variation in legislative outcomes.
In the 2011-2012 legislative session, 1008 bills introduced in the states to amend gun laws.
284 to strengthen gun rights, 425 to strengthen gun control.
148 bills passed.
Tons of variation in procedural rules/majority party
gatekeeping
rights?Slide12
Measuring rules in the statesConsider two main junctures in the legislative process for majority party
gatekeeping
: (1) committee stage and (2) calendar stage.
NCSL survey of committee procedures.
Survey of state legislative clerks and secretaries (with Sarah
Anzia
):
How bills are placed on the chamber’s floor calendars.
Who appoints committee members and chairs.
Whether the full chamber votes on committee assignments.Slide13
Variation in state gatekeeping rights
Committee gatekeeping:
Can a majority party appointed committee decline to hear bills?
Yes
in 72 chambers.
Can a majority party appointed committee decline to report bills?
Yes
in 74 chambers.
Can a majority party appointed committee either decline to hear or to report bills?
Majority party committee gatekeeping exists in 79 chambers.Slide14
Variation in state gatekeeping rights (cont.)
Calendar gatekeeping:
Does a majority leader set the calendar?
Yes
in 45 chambers.
Can majority party appointed committee set the calendar?
Yes
in 16 chambers.
Does a majority party leader or committee set the calendar?
Yes
in 61 chambers.Slide15
Nevada Assembly: committee gatekeeping
The majority party appoints committee members and chairs.
Susan Furlong (clerk): “Committee chairmanship and membership appointments are determined by the Speaker.”
Can committees can decline to hear bills? Yes! (NCSL).
Committees can decline to report bills? Yes! (NCSL).
Majority party has committee gatekeeping rights.Slide16
Nevada Assembly: calendar gatekeeping
What person, committee or process determines the order in which bills are heard by the floor?
Susan Furlong (clerk): “Once bills are reported out of committee, they are placed on second or third reading, as appropriate, in numerical order in accordance with our house rules and custom and precedence. A member may make a motion to place a bill in a different position on second or third reading or to put a bill on hold by moving it to the desk.”
Majority party does not have calendar gatekeeping rights.Slide17
Nevada Senate: committee gatekeeping
Who determines the appointment of committee members and chairs?
Sherry Rodriguez (Assistant Secretary): The Chair of each committee is chosen by the majority caucus (majority leader). Standing committees are ALWAYS Chaired by a member of the majority party. The members for each committee are assigned the same way, by the Majority Leader, except the Minority members are chosen and placed on each Standing Committee by the minority caucus (minority leader).”
Note: Committee appointments based on proportional representation (NCSL).
Can committees decline to hear bills? Yes! (NCSL).
Can committees can decline to report bills? Yes! (NCSL).
Majority party has committee gatekeeping rights.Slide18
Nevada Senate: calendar gatekeeping
What person, committee or process determines the order in which bills are heard by the floor?
Sherry Rodriguez (Assistant Secretary): “After a bill has been passed out of a Standing Committee, the bill comes to the Senate Front Desk with the committee’s recommendation on the bill. The bill is then placed on the Daily Agenda in numerical order placing Senate bills first and the Assembly bills following in their numerical order. A Senator may stand during the floor session and request that any bill on the Daily Agenda be moved to another position if they give the purpose for their request such as possibly waiting for an amendment.”
Majority party does not have calendar gatekeeping rights.Slide19
Measuring legislative outcomes
If the majority party has gatekeeping rights, no bill should come to a vote that the leadership opposes.
What bills might the majority party oppose?
Majority rolls: passing bills on which a majority of the majority party votes in opposition.
Majority party rolls should be low/zero in chambers where the majority party has gatekeeping rights.Slide20
Example: immigration reform
Stuck in committee.
Boehner invoked the Hastert Rule: “I don’t see any way of bringing an immigration reform bill to the floor that doesn’t have the majority support of Republicans.”
In other words, he will not allow a vote on a bill that would result in a roll (i.e., pass against the wishes of a majority of the majority party).Slide21
Source: Cox, Gary W. and Mathew D.
McCubbins
. 2005.
Setting the Agenda
.
New York: Cambridge University Press.Slide22
NV Senate
Total votes: 129
Majority rolls: 1
Maj. roll rate: 0.008
NV House
Total votes: 138
Majority rolls: 3
Maj. roll rate: 0.023Slide23
Effect of committee gatekeeping rights on majority roll rates
No
Yes
Effect
of gatekeeping right
Non-hearing right
7.7%
5.4%
2.3
percentage points
Non-reporting right
7.7%
5.6%
2.1
percentage points
Committee
gatekeeping
right
7.7%
5.4%
2.3
percentage points
Majority roll rates are lower in chambers where the majority party has committee gatekeeping rights.Slide24
Effect of calendar gatekeeping rights on majority roll rates
No
Yes
Effect
of gatekeeping right
Majority leaders
has calendar gatekeeping right
6.1%
0.0%
0 percentage points
Majority
appointed committee has calendar gatekeeping right
6.5%
4.3%
2.2
percentage points
Calendar
gatekeeping
right
7.0%
5.6%
1.4 percentage points
Majority roll rates are lower in chambers where the majority party has calendar gatekeeping rights.Slide25
Rule configurations and majority rolls
Majority roll rates are lower in chambers with majority party gatekeeping rights.
Majority roll rate
Neither
committee gatekeeping nor calendar gatekeeping
8.4%
Committee
gatekeeping but no calendar gatekeeping
6.5%
Calendar
gatekeeping but no calendar gatekeeping
7.5%
Both
c
ommittee
gatekeeping and calendar gatekeeping
5.3%Slide26
Example: Colorado House
Committee
Gatekeeping
Calendar
Gatekeeping
Effect
size
(percentage points)
Majority Roll Rate
No
No
9.7%
Majority party size
(percentage point increase)
Effect size
(percentage points)
9.5
(1 SD)
-3.1
16
-5.2
Yes
No
-2.7
7%
No
Yes
-0.01
9.69
Yes
Yes
-5.2
4.5
Note: Bold font indicates statistically significant effect.Slide27
Why should we care?Procedural rules affect gridlock and policy outcomes.
5.2 percentage points = ~23 bills. And these are the important bills!Slide28Slide29
Progression of gun laws in state legislatures
Committee
gatekeeping
rights
Yes
No
Committee report
30.5%
56.1%
Final passage vote
24.7%
38.6%
Pass
chamber
23.7%
36.8%
Public law
8.8%
15.1%
Calendar
gatekeeping
rights
Yes
No
27.3%
46.9%
20.2%
42.7%
20.0%
41.2%
11.0%
27.1%
Committee and calendar gatekeeping rights
Yes
No
31.7%
63.6%
25.2%
63.6%
24.2%
54.6%
14.7%
18.2%Slide30
Why should we care?Procedural rules affect gridlock and policy outcomes.
5.2 percentage points = ~23 bills. And these are the important bills!
2. Institutional design.Slide31
Conclusions
Partisan polarization is preventing important policymaking in the U.S.
The majority party exercises power in legislatures not only by pushing bills forward, but also by holding them back.
In order for this to be the case, it is
necessary
that the majority party has
gatekeeping
rights.
The majority party shares a greater policymaking advantage where:
It can block bills in committee.
If can block bills from appearing on the floor calendar.Slide32
Extra SlidesSlide33
Table 5: Majority Negative Agenda
Rights
(1)
(2)
Majority
sets calendar
-0.019
+
(0.012)
-0.005
(0.021)
Committee
gatekeeping
-0.039**
(0.014)
-0.027
+
(0.18
)
Committee
gatekeeping
x
Majority
s
ets calendar
-0.021
(0.027)
Majority party size
-0.316**
(0.065)
-0.324**
(0.067)
Intraparty
heterogeneity
0.019
+
(0.012)
0.020
+
(0.012
)
Interparty
heterogeneity
0.002
(0.014)
0.002
(0.015)
Constant
0.293**
(0.055)
(0.290)**
(0.054)
Interaction effect
Committee
gatekeeping
and Majority
s
ets calendar
-0.052**
(0.015)
Observations
93
93
R
2
0.310
0.316
Robust
standard errors in parentheses.
Significance tests are one-tailed.
+
p
<0.10;
*
p
<0.05;
**
p
<0.01