d efined this election November 19 2012 Methodology and Specifications 2 This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps The survey of 1001 likely ID: 637827
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Slide1
How unmarried
women, youth and people of color defined this electionNovember 19, 2012Slide2
Methodology and Specifications2
This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps.The survey of 1001 likely 2012 voters nationwide was conducted from November 5-7, 2012.Survey results weighted to reflect National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.Slide3
The Rising American Electorate (RAE) includes unmarried women, people of color, and those under the age of 30. In total, they comprise the majority (53.6%) of the voting eligible population. Unmarried women are the largest segment of this group and drive
its composition.Source: 2010 CPS/November CPS supplements on voting and registration 115 million eligible voters (
53.6% of all eligible voters) are in the RAE
6.8m
Latina unmarried women
18.1m
young unmarried women
10.1m
AA unmarried women
3.3m
other unmarried womenSlide4
+39
By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White House Rising American Electorate+35
+19
Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --
Democrat
Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
4
Non-Rising American Electorate
+28
2008
2012
2008
2012
*Note:
2008 results
reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election
results. Slide5
If Unmarried Women had Voted as their Married Sisters Did, Obama Would Have Lost the Electoral College5
FL: Romney wins by 718,254IA: Romney wins by 28,870NV: Romney wins by 43,687OH: Romney wins by 358,923PA: Romney wins by 295,789VA: Romney wins by 177,829WI: Romney wins by 16,964Slide6
© Greenberg Quinlan Rosner6
Unmarried Women Decided this electionSlide7
7
RAE Nearly Half the 2012 Electorate Rising American Electorate
Unmarried women
Youth
African Americans
+3
+3
+1
+1
Percent of the Electorate
Hispanics
-
*Note:
Survey Results Reflect
Estimates From
Edison/
Mitofsky
/CNN
exit polls
.Slide8
+34
Youth (18-29)+238
2008
2012
+40
Unmarried Women
+36
2008
2012
+36
Hispanics
+44
2008
2012
Obama Holds Unmarried Women and Grows Hispanic Support
*Note:
results come
from
Edison/
Mitofsky
/CNN
exit polls.
Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --
Democrat
Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Slide9
Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is Huge
Men9
Women
-7
+11
-7
+
36
Gender Gap: 18
Marriage Gap: 43
Married Women
Unmarried Women
Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --
Democrat
Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
*Note:
Survey Results Reflect
Estimates From
Edison/
Mitofsky
/CNN
exit polls
.Slide10
Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among Unmarried Women
Now let me ask you about the election for Congress, did you vote for -- (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?10*Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results, -3
+40
43
Marriage Gap:
Married Women
Unmarried Women
-14
+16
30
-9
+39
48
Married Women
Unmarried Women
Married Women
Unmarried Women
2008
2010
2012Slide11
11
Marriage Gap Dwarfs Gender Gap since 1992*Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.Slide12
12
Obama-Romney Obama-RomneyMarriage gap Married women
46-53
Unmarried women
67-31
43
White married women
38-58
White unmarried women
52-42
30
Non-white married women
78-22
Non-white unmarried women
90-9
25
Married women under 40
48-51
Unmarried
women under 40
76-23
56Married women, non-college 44-55
Unmarried women
, non-college
65-34
42
Married women, college
47-52
Unmarried women, college
70-29
46
Married women, battleground states
51-48
Unmarried women, battleground states
67-33
31
Marriage Gap in Extends Throughout the ElectorateSlide13
+29
Colorado13
Unmarried Women
Married Women
Marriage Gap in Battleground States
*
Note: Results come
from
Edison/
Mitofsky
/CNN
exit polls.
Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --
Democrat
Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
+36
Florida
Unmarried Women
Married Women
+38
Iowa
Unmarried Women
Married Women
+46
Nevada
Unmarried Women
Married Women
Marriage Gap:Slide14
+19
New Hampshire14
Unmarried Women
Married Women
Marriage Gap in Battleground States
*
Note: Results come
from
Edison/
Mitofsky
/CNN
exit polls.
Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --
Democrat
Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
+38
Ohio
Unmarried Women
Married Women
+36
Virginia
Unmarried Women
Married Women
+35
Wisconsin
Unmarried Women
Married Women
Marriage Gap:Slide15
RAE
Cultural Divide15Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Non-RAE
Net: +52
Mean:
69.6
Net: +13
Mean:
55
Net:
-22
Mean:
36.8
Net:
-2Mean:
45.9Net: +8Mean: 52Net: -9
Mean:
44.8
Gay Marriage
Tea Party
RAE
Non-RAE
RAE
Non-RAE
Planned ParenthoodSlide16
Republican Brand Problem with RAE
16Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Democratic PartyDemocrats in CongressRepublican Party
Republican Congress
Net:
+22
RAE
Non-RAE
RAE
Non-RAE
RAE
Non-RAE
RAE
Non-RAE
Net:
-27
Net:
-20
Net:
+1
Net:
+26
Net:
-20
Net:
-18
Net:
+11Slide17
17
Ratings on new health care reform law have improved in recent months Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold… The new health care reform law.Slide18
RAE
Favorable Reaction to Healthcare Among RAE voters 18Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Net: -30
Mean: 34.0
Mean:
53.7
Net:
+12
The New Health Care Reform Law
Non-RAESlide19
19
Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama?
Leadership and National Security
Support Women and Minorities
Social
Insurance
Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act
Respect him as a leader
For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women
Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and
pay their
fair share
Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts
Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all
His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers
Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time
Rescued U.S. auto industry
#1 reason people voted for Obama – brought us through economic crisis
Economic
ActionSlide20
20
Women’s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support President among Unmarried WomenNow let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama?TotalRAEUnmarried WomenBrought America through the economic crisis and needs more time404034Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all
30
27
23
Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
27
32
24
For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women
26
23
30
Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts
262730
Respect him as a leader
21
21
23
His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers
21
23
23
Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act
19
20
21
Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share
18
19
19Rescued U.S. auto industry13109Could not vote for Romney
10
1113Slide21
21
Now let me read you a list reasons to support Mitt Romney. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Mitt Romney?Economic plansLeadership qualities
Government
and spending
Successful businessman who knows how to manage and create
jobs
Worked with both Democrats and Republicans
Plan to expand offshore oil drilling, coal, and natural gas on federal lands
Compassionate and religious man
I don't want four more years of Barack Obama
Will repeal
Obamacare
Plan to cut taxes across the board
Will tackle reform of Medicare and Social Security
Will protect small businesses from taxes and regulation
Plan to cut spending and reduce national debt
Ending culture of dependency by cutting food stamps and welfare
Romney vote from jobs and economic plans, as well as cutting spendingSlide22
22
Let me read you a list of doubts about Barack Obama. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Barack Obama?Weakened
America
Government and Spending
Support for abortion rights
Cut Medicare by 700 billion dollars to pay for a health reform plan no one wanted
America less respected under Obama
Increased deficit and size of government
Paid off union supporters in the auto bailout and failed clean-energy projects
Bailed out big banks while doing nothing to help homeowners
Obamacare
Failed to change Washington and break gridlock
Hurt small businesses with taxes and regulations
His economic plans failed
Anti-Obama Vote Driven by Concern with Growing Deficit and Size of Government
America would not be the same if Obama had second term
Women
Economy
GridlockSlide23
Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors
23Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney?
For rich and out of touch
Threats to Social
Insurance
Leadership Qualities
His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent"
Being
against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women
Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington
Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan
Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes
For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash
Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy
Would repeal
Obamacare
Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all
With the rich and out of
touch
with average people
Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital
Foreign
Policy
WomenSlide24
24
Women’s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried WomenLet me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney?TotalRAEUnmarried WomenBeing against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women272733Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes
30
28
29
His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent"
27
31
33
With the rich and out of touch with average people
28
32
35
Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors
242528Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy
20
20
18
Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital
19
14
11
For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash
17
19
22
Would repeal
Obamacare
16
16
19Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington151513Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan
14
17
11Slide25
25
Agenda Moving ForwardNow that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a Republican Congress, which two or three of the following do you believe should be the first priority of Congress and the President:TotalRAEUnmarried WomenInvest in education, including hiring 100,000 more teachers, more Pell Grants for college and investing in early childhood education.334137
Protect Social Security and Medicare from significant cuts33
34
36
Support a grand bargain to reduce the deficit where Democrats agree to cuts in spending and Republicans agree to tax increases for the wealthy
30
27
27
Invest in an "all of the above" energy strategy that exploits domestic oil, gas and coal, but also expands new, clean energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels.
29
24
25
Pass a new jobs bill that increases exports and rebuilds roads, bridges and economic infrastructure
252114
Crack down on companies that pay women LESS money if they perform THE SAME job as their male colleagues
18
23
29
Raise taxes on top earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for important programs.
12
13
14
Fully implement the health care reform law
12
13
15
Protect Planned Parenthood and women's health care choices, including the right to choose to have an abortion.
14
18
21Protect programs for the vulnerable, including food stamps and Medicaid121315Slide26
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www.greenbergresearch.com | www.gqrr.comSlide27
Findings from Election Eve surveys in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Virginia
Celinda Lake, Joshua Ulibarri, and Cornelia TreptowLake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066Slide28
MethodologyLake Research Partners designed and administered these surveys, which were conducted by telephone using professional
interviewers November 4-6, 2012. The surveys reached registered voters who were likely to vote or voted in the November 6, 2012 general election.The margin of error for each of the total samples is approximately +/-4.0 percentage points and larger for the sub-groups (surveys ranged in sample size from 607 to 620). Most of the data has been slightly weighted by gender, age, race, and party identification to ensure a comprehensive representation of likely voters in the specific state.Due to rounding, the data may appear different by a point on overall numbers compared to final results on Election Day. Additionally, all reported data are the results from only those voters who disclosed who they voted for.28Slide29
OverviewThe Marriage Gap: The marriage gap was pivotal this year. The focus has been on the gender gap, but that surface look obscures what is really happening in American politics. At best, in OH, WA and VA married women split their vote. If unmarried women had done the same it would have left the elections to be decided by men. This year, among the three states polled, the marriage gap was 35 points in VA, 33 points in OH, and 29 points in WI. The RAE gap ranged from 67 points (VA) to 36 points (WI).
The Enthusiasm Gap: For weeks leading up to the election a major question was whether groups that historically voted for Republicans would be more enthusiastic than groups that have of late voted for Democrats. In almost every state there was little to no enthusiasm gap between unmarried women and married women or the RAE and the non-RAE. The Issues: Jobs and the economy was the dominant issue for virtually all demographic groups. Still, while married women and the non-RAE focused heavily on jobs, unmarried women and other members of the RAE displayed a larger issue agenda this year that includes retirement issues like Social Security and Medicare, and education and health care.29Slide30
OhioSlide31
Among all voters, Obama won Ohio by 2 points.
31In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:] _Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
+2Slide32
Though Obama wins women overall, it is unmarried women who drive this support with more than six in ten voting for him. Married women tip toward Romney.
32+11
+5
+28
+8
All Women
All
Men
Unmarried Women
Married Women
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
Marriage Gap
33 pointsSlide33
The RAE and its subgroups break for Obama by larger margins than non-RAE groups vote for Romney, most notably, more than nine in ten African Americans vote for Obama. Young voters also went heavily for the President.
33+35
+88
+4
+23
RAE
Non-RAE
Age <30
Age 30+
+18
+25
White
African American
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
RAE Gap
58 pointsSlide34
Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection by four points in a highly contested and negative race.
34
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for [RANDOMIZE:] _Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
+4Slide35
Brown’s vote amongst women and his subsequent advantage with that group is propelled by the support of unmarried women. In this case married women split their vote, but if they had not, it would have left the balance of the race in the hands of male voters.
35+14
+2
+26
+4
All Women
All
Men
Unmarried Women
Married Women
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown
, Independent
Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
Marriage Gap
28 pointsSlide36
Brown’s support levels among RAE groups is lower than those Obama saw. Still, he dominated among those groups. Younger voters were especially good for the Senator while older voters split their vote.
36+36
+86
+0
+18
RAE
Non-RAE
Age <30
Age 30+
+12
+28
White
African American
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown
, Independent
Candidate or someone else?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
RAE Gap
54 pointsSlide37
Importantly, there was little to no enthusiasm gap this year between married women and unmarried women, and the RAE and non-RAE.
37Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity. Were you more or less interested in the November 6th election compared to elections in the past or was there no difference to you? (IF MORE/LESS INTERESTED ASK): Is that much more/less or somewhat more/less?
Much/Somewhat MoreSlide38
VirginiaSlide39
Obama won the pivotal state of Virginia by two points. His strength here expanded his options for victory while it was practically a must-win for Romney.
39+2
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean? Slide40
The marriage gap in Virginia was 35 points. Married women went for Romney, but unmarried women went for Obama by almost a two to one margin.
40+8
+4
+31
+6
All Women
All
Men
Unmarried Women
Married Women
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
Marriage Gap
35 pointsSlide41
As was the case in Ohio, Obama wins more than 90% of the African American vote. Also of note, Romney’s margin with white voters is quite large, but the pivotal Obama advantage among the RAE provided the winning distance.
41+37
+94
+4
+30
RAE
Non-RAE
Age <30
Age 30+
+28
+23
White
African American
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
RAE Gap
67 pointsSlide42
Former Governor Tim Kaine won the most expensive senate race in the country by four points over former Senator George Allen.
42
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for [RANDOMIZE:] _Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim Kaine, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
+4Slide43
Kaine won because he won among women by more than he lost among men. But he won among women because he dominated among unmarried women while he lost by two points among married women.
43+12
+2
+36
+5
All Women
All
Men
Unmarried Women
Married Women
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim
Kaine
, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
Marriage Gap
38 pointsSlide44
Kaine receives large margins across RAE groups, while Allen only just pulls out a majority among older voters. Allen did win big among white voters, but it was not enough to sustain him against the Kaine onslaught with the RAE.
44+36
+84
+2
+26
RAE
Non-RAE
Age <30
Age 30+
+24
+28
White
African American
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown
, Independent
Candidate or someone else?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
RAE Gap
62 pointsSlide45
The RAE and the non-RAE were equally
interested in this year’s election, with half of their voters much more interested than in previous years. Romney’s hopes for winning Virginia were anchored on an enthusiasm gap that never materialized. 45Much/Somewhat MoreDarker colors used to indicate greater intensity.
Were you more or less interested in the November 6th election compared to elections in the past or was there no difference to you? (IF MORE/LESS INTERESTED ASK): Is that much more/less or somewhat more/less?Slide46
WisconsinSlide47
In his biggest win among the four states, Obama won Wisconsin by five points.
47+4
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean? Slide48
Unmarried women comprised almost a quarter of the vote in Wisconsin, the highest of the tested states, and they voted heavily for Obama. He held his own with married women, but had that tie materialized overall among women, Romney would have won the state.
48+14
+1
+30
+5
All Women
All
Men
Unmarried Women
Married Women
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
Marriage Gap
29 pointsSlide49
The RAE overall went heavily for the President and gave him an advantage of 26 points, while non-RAE tipped to Romney but by just 10 points.
49+26
+1
+18
+10
RAE
Non-RAE
Age <30
Age 30+
In the race for President will you /did you vote for:
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
RAE Gap
36 pointsSlide50
Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin won the Wisconsin Senate seat by two points over former 4-term Governor Tommy Thompson. Baldwin becomes the first openly gay U.S. Senator.
50
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for [RANDOMIZE:] _Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim Kaine, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
+4Slide51
Baldwin would have lost the race if unmarried women voted as married women did. Married women split their vote between Baldwin and Thompson. Unmarried women, however, went for Baldwin by 31 points .
51+14
+0
+31
+6
All Women
All
Men
Unmarried Women
Married Women
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim
Kaine
, Independent
Candidate or someone else?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
Marriage Gap
31 pointsSlide52
Baldwin lost the non-RAE vote but was able to dominate the RAE vote by 26 points, which is the same vote the President received. Because Thompson did slightly better among the non-RAE than Romney did,
the gap here was larger than in the presidential race.52+26
+0
+17
+12
RAE
Non-RAE
Age <30
Age 30+
In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for
[RANDOMIZE:]
_Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim
Kaine
, Independent
Candidate or someone else?
[
IF UNDECIDED
:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?
RAE Gap - 38 pointsSlide53
There was no enthusiasm gap this year between those who split their vote between the candidates
and those who went more heavily for Obama. Similar levels of married and unmarried women said they were much more interested this year.53Much/Somewhat MoreDarker colors used to indicate greater intensity.
Were you more or less interested in the November 6th election compared to elections in the past or was there no difference to you? (IF MORE/LESS INTERESTED ASK): Is that much more/less or somewhat more/less?Slide54
Celinda Lake
clake@lakeresearch.comJoshua Ulibarrijulibarri@lakeresearch.comCornelia Treptowctreptow@lakeresearch.com
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066