Steen Fryba Christensen presentation at workshop Nov 19 th 2015 New Trends in China Latin America Relations George Washington University Elliot School of International Relations ID: 428565
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Slide1
China-Latin America relations: a Comparative Typological approach
Steen Fryba
Christensen, presentation at workshop, Nov. 19
th
2015:
New Trends in China – Latin America Relations
George Washington
University
,
Elliot School of International Relations
Sigur
Center for Asian StudiesSlide2
Focus
China-Latin America
relations,
interests
and
aims
.
T
wo
moments:
2004 and 2015
(
dynamic
research
object
–
issue
of
change
)
P
oint of exit is
three
typologies
,
all South American
(types of
countries
),
based
on
three
elements
.
Aim
is
China-LA relations
broadly
. Research in
progress
.
Typologies
are
not
theories
but a
useful
way
to
organize
my
/
one’s
thoughtsSlide3
Reflecting on
approaches
to China-Latin America Relations
Winners and
losers
(
c
onjunctural
and
economic
focus
) (mid-2000s).
D
ynamic properties of
economic
relations: The
danger
of ”de-
industrialization
”
for South American ”
winners
”.
Broader
approaches
:
Political
economy
,
Geopolitics
,
economy
. Slide4
A broad
approach is
suggested
: relations,
interests
and
aims
A)
Economic
relations
. B)
Geopolitical
issues
C)
China’s
aims
,
interests
and
strategies
. D) Latin American
aims
,
interests
and
strategies
.
Dynamic
analysis
comparing
two
moments – 2004/2015.Slide5
My aim
T
o
analyze
: Do China-LA relations,
strategies
and
aims
differ
according
to LA country types?
(The
analysis
is
based
on a
systemic
,
historical
structural
conception
of
development
and international
relations (
Wallerstein
; Latin American
historical
structuralism
).
Importance
of
own
strategies
for
development
.
Concept
of ”
internal-external
situations” (
Cardoso
/
Faletto
).) Slide6
3 Typologies
Brazil
Venezuela (Ecuador, Bolivia)
Chile (Colombia, Peru)
Though
the
typologies
are
all South American, it is
assumed
that
this
typological
approach
can
be
generally
useful
in
analyzing
China-Latin America relations,
interests
and
aims
–
through
comparison
on the
three
elements/dimensions.Slide7
Typologies
are
based
on 3 elements
1.
Economic
policy
orientation
. 2.
Foreign
policy
orientation
.
3. Development
model
–
economic
(
production
)
structures
.
Slide8
China-Brazil
1.
Intermediate
economic
strategy
:
Orthodox
/
Heterodox
.
2.
N
ational
autonomy
through
diversification
.
Seeks
multipolarity
and
influence
.
Based
on a
critical
”
world
vision”.
Seeks
to
change
global power balances
through
South-South
cooperation
and
coalitions
,
e.g
. with China: a
”
similar
country
”/Great
Peripheral
Countries
.
3. The most
diversified
economy
, but
increasingly
natural
ressource
based
. The
biggest
economy
in Latin America. Slide9
China-Venezuela (Ecuador and Bolivia)
1. The most
heterodox
–
economic
strategy
.
Strongly
interventionist
state
.
2.
N
ational
autonomy
and
multipolarity
.
Strongly
anti-hegemonic
.
Anti
-US and
Anti
-neoliberal.
3. ”Mono-
cultural
”
economic
model. Neo-
extractivism
. Slide10
China-Chile (Peru and Colombia)
1. The most
orthodox
economic
strategy
.
Liberalism
.
2.
Liberalism
.
Diversification
. Open
regionalism
+ post-
hegemonic
regionalism
.
Emphasis
on
economic
aspects
. Bilateral FTA with US, China
etc
– part of TPP.
3. An
intermediate
level
of
economic
diversification
. Natural ressource
emphasis
.Slide11
Other countries
(%)
Can
be
analyzed
with reference to the
three
elements in the
typologies
.
Mexico and Central America have
development
models
that
differ
from South American models in terms of
production
structure
/
specialization
.
Uruguay is a small
economy
largely
based
on
agricultural
specialization
. Paraguay as
well
, but with a
weaker
industrial
base
than
Uruguay.
Argentina is more
diversified
than
Uruguay and Paraguay – and is more
heterodox
in
economics
and
foreign
policy.Slide12
China-Brazil
: Relations,
strategies
and
aims
2004:
Brazil
initially
very
enthusiastic
about
China’s
rise. Global
politics
– alliances with ”
similar
countries
.” Growing
trade
and
improved
export
prices
. Helps
Brazil
stabilize
and
grow
economically
.
However
,
skeptical
and
critical
attitudes from
industrial
interest
organizations
.
China
interested
in
Brazilian
resources
(
oil
,
steel
,
soy
,
food
) and
market
.
Initially
not
very
interested
in the
political
dimension due to
priority
to relations with the US.Slide13
China-Brazil:
Relations
,
strategies
and
aims
2015:
Brazil’s
view
much
like
in 2004,
although
there
is
now
a
greater
worry
about
the North-South pattern of
economic
interaction
. Not so
similar
after
all. Still a
hope
that
Chinese
investments
will
be
useful
, still a
hope
for
better
access
to
Chinese
market
for products with
higher
value
added
.
Emphasis
on BRICS and South-South, but
Brazil
may
change
foreign
policy
orientation
towards
a
greater
emphasis
on Latin America, Europe and the US.
Volatility
in
export
prices
to China have
revealed
fragility
of excessive
dependence
on ”ressources” and
Chinese
market
.
Economic
crisis
–
risks
of a ”jump
backwards
” in terms of
economic
model. ”Shared
gains
”?Slide14
China-Brazil:
Relations
,
strategies
and
aims
China 2015:
Interests
largely
revolve
around
access
to
Brazilian
natural
resources
(
Soy
,
Iron
) and
markets
. More FDI in
Brazil
related
to
this
.
Enhanced
focus
on the ”
win-win
”
discourse
and
rhetoric
-
which
is
increasingly
difficult
to ”
sell
”.
China-CELAC –
seeking
image as a ”
friend
” of Latin America
that
really
wants
to
assure
”
win-win
”. More
focus
on South-South
coalition
– BRICS – as a
tool
to
enhance
influence
. This
may
not
be
a lasting
emhasis
.
Hegemonic
strategy
of
influence
in all regions and
influence
through
structural
economic
power (and
diplomacy
)/or just
focus
on
economic
interests
and
aims
?Slide15
China-Venezuela relations
2004: Great
enthusiasm
in Chávez
government
(Bolivia and Ecuador
later
,
though
Bolivia
less
connected
to China
economically
).
Autonomy
enhancing
. China as an
opportunity
–
prices
,
trade
,
investment
and
common
projects
.
Anti-hegemonic
intention on the side of Venezuela.
2015:
same situation as in 2004.
However
,
development
outcomes
vary
(V/E/B)
despite
common
experience
of
volatility
of ”ressource/
export
prices
”.
(
Own
strategies
;
Venezuela’s
use
of
windfall
profits is
less
productive
than
e.g
.
Bolivia’s
)Slide16
China-Venezuela relations
2004:
China’s
main
interest
is
oil
(
mining
in Ecuador,
too
).
Rhetoric
: not a
challenge
to US
influence
.
2015: In
practice
China’s
influence
grows
due to
its
growing
economic
presence
and due to
cold
bilateral relations
between
US and Venezuela
.
China’s
interest
remains
focused
on ”
natural
ressources” for import.
Much
more FDI and
financing
(V + E
especially
). (
local
conflicts
in
mining
– Ecuador). Win-Win
discourse
.
Continued
financing
of V?
China’s
”support” for and
financing
of Venezuela (and Ecuador) more
based
on
economic
interests
than
on
ideology
.
However
,
ideology
faciliates
growing
Chinese
influence
(V, Ec, B).
Particularly
Venezuela (but
also
Ecuador) is
increasingly
dependent on China.Slide17
China-Venezuela:
characteristics of their mutual relations and aims.
North-South pattern of
economic
relations
.
2015:
Issue
of growing
dependency
and
risks
to
autonomy
–
Chinese
rhetoric
: ”Win-Win”.
Different
from US (
solidarity
).
In reality
we
can
observe
a
potentially
risky
development
for Venezuela. It
remains
to
be
seen
if Bolivia and Ecuador
will
be
able
not to
grow
as dependent on China as Venezuela.Slide18
China-Chile (Peru and Colombia): Relations, interests and aims.
2004: Chile (Peru and Colombia)
very
welcoming
of China as a
way
to
diversify
and
grow
the
economy
+
strengthen
autonomy
.
Emphasis
is on
economic
relations.
2015: China has
become
Chile’s
greatest
trading
partner and
export
destination. Chile has not
been
successful
in
attracting
Chinese
FDI (
contrary
to Peru and Colombia – mines in Peru;
local
conflicts
around
mining
investments
- Peru).
Positive
developmental
outcomes
,
though
volatility
in
export
prices
is
also
relevant for
these
countries
.Slide19
China-Chile (Peru, Colombia):
Relations, interests and aims.
2004 and 2015: China
interested
in
copper
imports and in
Chilean
export
market
(
mining
and
oil
Peru/Colombia).
FDI
not
strategically
important
for China in Chile (
no
oil
,
copper
not
particularly
open
sector
). China
interested
in
mining
investment
in Peru,
infrastructure
in Colombia and Peru.
Win-
win
discourse
(
largely
accepted
in
these
countries
).Slide20
General for the three
typologies
China’s
aims
seem
to
be
general in nature: Access to
needed
natural
resources
(
main
aim
) and
export
markets
. FDI
associated
with
these
same
aims
.
Financing
with same
aim
and
potentially
also
as a
way
to
assure
acceptance
of ”
win-win
”
discourse
.
Interest
in
influence
and a
good
image
largely
associated
with the
economic
aims
described
.
Potentially
also
connected
to
geopolitical
ambition of growing
influence
in all
world
regions (
hegemony
?)Slide21
Other countries
(%)
Mexico: China
mainly
seen
as a
threat
(from
competition
in
Mexican
and Third Markets (US).
Central America: Same as Mexico –
though
some
individual
differences
appear
. Costa Rica –
particularly
close
relationship
. Nicaragua –
canal
project
.
Relevance
of Taiwan/One China policy?
Argentina: Hit by
volatility
; FDI
interest
.
Uruguay and Paraguay same type of relations, but more
successful
in
development
terms
than
other
Atlantic South American
countries
.Slide22
Conclusions and
Synthesis
: China-Latin America Relations
Relations
between
China and Latin America have
gone
from
being
rather
insignificant
some
15
years
ago
to
being
very
significant
now
for
almost
all of Latin America.
Economic
relations
follow
a North-South pattern
today
. Trade
composition
/
capital
exports
(FDI and
lending
).
Shared
gains
? Or
are
we
rather
seeing
growing
dependency
and
cementation
of ressource-
based
models of
development
?Slide23
Degree of
Chinese
interest
/relations with Latin American
countries
Especially
strong
relations with a
few
countries
– 5-6:
Brazil
, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela (Mexico).
General
interest
in
natural
ressource imports,
export
markets
(
investment
opportunities
, FDI and
financing
–
typically
connected
to same
interest
).
I
nterest
in a
good
image
across
the
board
.
1.Main
interest
is
economic
.
2.
Influence
: One China (Taiwan) and
geopolitical
competition
with the US?Slide24
Conclusions and Synthesis
: China-Latin America Relations
China’s
rhetoric
regarding
its
relationship
with Latin America is
upbeat
. It
seeks
to
create
an
image
of a country
that
is
different
from the United States and
represents
an alternative model for Latin America and the South as a
whole
(
than
the US/North) and
neoliberalism
: the
”Win-Win”
rhetoric
sums up
this
”story”.Slide25
Conclusions and Synthesis
: China-Latin America Relations
The
rhetoric
is
however
increasingly
out of
sync
with
developments
in the
Brazil
and the Venezuela
typologies
.
They
experience
a regression in
economic
model and growing
financial
vulnerability
and
economic
crisis
. This
leads
to
reconsideration
(
Brazil
) and
confusion
(Venezuela) and growing China
dependency
. The Chile
typology
does
better
but
experiences
the same North-South
economic
relationship
.
The
rhetoric
has not
been
very
convincing
in Mexico and Central America
, perhaps with Costa Rica as an
exception
. Hopes: Mexico, Nicaragua,
others
?Slide26
Conclusions and Synthesis
: China-Latin America Relations
China’s
real
aims
are
to
pursue
their
core
interests
in
promoting
their
economic
model
dominated
by urban
areas
and
manufacturing
production
and
exports
,
moving
up the
value-chain
and
going
global + at the same time
secure
access
to
needed
natural
resources
,
largely
in
Africa
and in South America.
The
good
and
friendly
image China promotes
is
meant
for international ”
consumption
” and the
legitimacy
of
China’s
external
relations
that
would
allow
the
continued
”
economic
rise” and, perhaps, the ”
political
rise” of China as a
superpower
and a potential hegemon
/or
key
economy
of the global system:
Return of the ”
Middle
Kingdom”?/
hegemonic
power? Slide27
Conclusions and Synthesis
: China-Latin America Relations
Of the
three
elements in the
typologies
, the
issue
of
economic
model/
production
system and
associated
social system is the most
important
predictor
of the national
characteristics
of China-Latin America relations.
China
does
not
seem
particularly
concerned
with the
economic
policy element nor the
foreign
policy element of Latin American
countries
.Slide28
Conclusions and synthesis
Brazil
and the Venezuela
typology
don’t
only
focus
on the
economic
dimension, but
also
the
geopolitical
dimension in
their
way
of
relating
to China.
Economic
developments
and
changing
domestic
political
constellations
and
ideas
/interpretations
may
alter
the approach to China.