Surplus Or Shortage Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises Inc November 8 2013 And In This Corner Shortage Oct 22 nd report Australian Analysts Tom Kierath and Crystal Wang ID: 307511
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Slide1
Wine 2023:Surplus? Or Shortage?
Dave
Chambers
Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc.
November 8,
2013Slide2
“And In This Corner”“Shortage!” (Oct 22nd
report)
Australian Analysts Tom
Kierath and Crystal WangGlobal shortage of 300 million casesSlide3
“And In This Corner”“Hogwash!”“
Industry’s in fine shape
” Jon Bonne, SF Chronicle
“Just offsetting over-supply” Rob McMillin
, SVB“Supply to vary by price point” Intl Business TimesSlide4
Evidence Of ShortageGrowing demandChinaGen X, Millennials
Shrinking vineyards
Global inventory depletionSlide5
Growing DemandSlide6
Growing Demand - ChinaSlide7
Growing Demand – By AgeSlide8
Shrinking SupplySlide9
Global Inventory DepletionSlide10
Round 1 – Shortage!Slide11
Not So Fast!Slide12
Round 2 – The Rebuttal“The Morgan Stanley’s report is just wrong” (Rob McMillan, Silicon Valley Bank)“Global production at its highest in 7 years”
(Intl. Org of Vine & Wine, (OIC) France)
“Bulk wine prices are stable… there is no shortage” (Rabo
Bank, New York)10-31 SFGate.comWSJ Market WatchSlide13
Rebuttal – Alternate DemandSlide14
Rebuttal – Surplus Product
CBC News July, 2013Slide15
The Winery?Treasury Wine EstatesThe total write-off was $145 million, USD (
WSJ, July 15, 2013
)
“We overestimated U.S. Demand”Stockholder lawsuit pendingOct 31
st - BofA/Merrill Lynch urges Treasury to Divest of Beringer ASAP (Wine Industry Insight)Slide16
Rebuttal – Interest ConflictThe spinning of looming shortages to promote wine stocks… could work again for
those
unfamiliar with the public wine stock frenzy/crash/burn of the 1990s. That debacle was driven by a similar shortage
myth, [creating] a huge wine tsunami in 2001
.Wine Industry Insight 10-31-13Slide17
Rebuttal – Interest ConflictWhat bank lists Treasury Wine Estates as their top “consumer pick”?Slide18
Rebuttal – Interest ConflictMorgan Stanley, of course.Analysts were not made available for commentSlide19
Wine Shortage Knockout?