reserves in this currency and ii as a medium ofexchange if it is use - PDF document

1 reserves in this currency and (ii) as a
reserves in this currency and (ii) as a medium ofexchange if it is used for intervening in currencymarkets.The three functions of an international currencyreinforce each other. For example, the use of acurrency for invoicing trade and holding financialassets increases the likelihood that the currencywill be used as a vehicle currency. In the officialsector, if a country pegs its exchange rate to currency, it is likely to hold reserves in that currencyand conduct its interventions in exchange marketsin that currency. In addition, the use of an inter-national currency by one sector reinforces its useby the other sector. For example, using a currencyas an exchange rate peg facilitates the use of thatcurrency in debt contracts and foreign trade.DETERMINANTS OF AN INTERNATIONAL CURRENCYWhat determines the likelihood that a cur-rency will be used in the international exchangeof goods, services, and assets? Five key factors areas follows:¥Size of the economy¥Importance in international trade¥Size, depth, liquidity, and openness ofdomestic financial markets ¥Convertibility of the currency¥Macroeconomic policiesThe size of a countryÕs economy is importantcurrency in international markets. Economic sizeis linked with the importance of a country in inter-national trade and the size of its financial markets.For example, exports account for a much greatershare of the output of the Korean economy thanfor the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, because theU.S. economy is nearly 14 times larger than the Korean economy, U.S. exports comprise a muchlarger share of world exports. Clearly the dominance of the U.S. economyand the decline of the U.K. economy in the twentiethcentury were related to the rise of the dollar andthe decline of the pound as international currencies.Likewise, the growth of the German and Japaneseeconomies in the last several decades of the twen-tieth century prompted the use of their currenciesin international markets. As a result, the overwmarkets in the 1950s and 1960s diminished.Table 2 compares the relative size of the U.S.,euro-area, and Japanese economies. The U.S. econ-omy is the largest in the world, accounting for 22 percent of world output. The establishment ofeconomic and monetary union in Europe, linkedthrough the euro, has created the worldÕs secondlargest economy. The Japanese economy is lessthan half the size of the euro area.The share of a country in international tradeas well as the size and openness of its financialmarkets are determinants of the demand for thatcountryÕs currency in world markets. The UnitedStates accounts for a lower share of world exportsthan does the current euro area, as shown in Table2. The size of U.S. financial markets as measuredby the sum of bank assets, outstanding domesticdebt securities, and stock market capitalization,however, is much larger than in the euro area. is a distant third in terms of its share of worldexports, but its financial markets are close in sizeto those in the euro area.The convertibility of a countryÕs currency isanother important determinant of its use in inter-national markets. Restrictions on the ability toCTOBER In 1994 the Chinese economy surpassed the size of the Japaneseeconomy. Based on purchasing power parity valuations of GDP, Chinaaccounted for 11.2 percent of the worldÕs output in 1999. Nevertheless,Japan remains the worldÕs third major economic power. Table 1 Functions of an International Currency Sector FunctionPrivateOf

2 ficialUnit of accountInvoice Exchange ra
ficialUnit of accountInvoice Exchange rate pegStore of value Financial assets Reserves Medium of exchange Vehicle/substitution Intervention exchange a currency for other currencies limits itsglobal use. At the end of World War II almost everycountry, with the exception of the United States,restricted the convertibility of its currency. Thisinconvertibility persisted for the first decade after thewar. The convertibility of the U.S. dollar promptedits use as the currency in which international tradewas conducted.Macroeconomic policies also play an impor-tant role in determining whether a countryÕs cur-rency will be used internationally. These policiesaffect a countryÕs economic growth and its open-ness to the world economy. Policies fostering a lowinflation environment are especially important.Countries experiencing hyperinflation and/orpolitical crises often see the use of their curren-within the domestic economy, as residents turnto a substitute currency.Clearly the size and openness of the U.S. econ-omy have been major factors in encouraging theinternational use of the dollar in the post-WorldWar II period. Its use as an international currencyin the private sector and the effect of the emerof the euro in this sector is examined in the nextTHE PRIVATE USES OF AN INTERNATIONAL CURRENCYAs stated above, a currency operates as aninternational currency in the private sector (i) ifinternational trade and debt contracts are priced in this currency; (ii) if this currency is used to facilitatethe exchange of other currencies; and (iii) if thiscurrency is used as a substitute currency.Invoice CurrencyThe dollar is the main currency that functionsas a unit of account for private international trans-actions. Although data on the currency of invoicein international trade are limited, the available dataconfirm the dominance of the dollar. In 1995 theU.S. dollar was used as the invoice currency for morethan half of world exports, down only slightly from1980, as shown in Table 3. The Deutsche mark wasthe next most popular invoice currency, used forapproximately 13 percent of world exports, followedby the French franc and the British pound. Whilethe yenÕs use in world trade lagged behind theseEuropean currencies, its share had more thandoubled since 1980. The combined share of thefour major euro currencies was less than half thatof the U.S. dollar.More importantly, there is a clear distinctionbetween the use of the dollar and other invoicecurrencies. The U.S. dollar is the only currencywhose use in world trade far surpasses its countryshare in world trade, as shown by its international-ization ratio in Table 3. An internationalization ratioless than 1.0, as with the yen, lira, and guilder,indicates that not all of that countryÕs exports aredenominated in the local currency. An internation-alization ratio greater than 1.0, as with the dollar,CTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF Table 2 Comparison of United States,Euro-Area,and Japanese Economies in 1999 United StatesEuro areaJapanShare of world GDP (%)21.915.87.6Share of world exports (%)15.319.49.3Financial markets ($ billions)40,543.824,133.420,888.5Bank assets ($ billions)7,555.312,731.36,662.5Domestic debt securities outstanding ($ billions)15,426.35,521.96,444.9Stock market capitalization ($ billions)17,562.25,880.27,781.4NOTE:GDP is based on purchasing power parity equivalents.World exports excludes intra-euro-area trade.SOURCE:GDP:IMF,World Economic Outlook,Oc

3 tober 2000.Exports:IMF,Direction of Trad
tober 2000.Exports:IMF,Direction of Trade Statistics Quarterly,September 2000.Bank assets:European Central Bank,;Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,Flow of Funds AccountsIMF,International Financial Statistics.Debt securities:Bank for International Settlements,Quarterly Review of International Banking and Financial Market Developments.Stock market:Eurostat. tries use that currency to invoice some (or all) oftheir exports.What determines the currency of invoice inworld trade? A number of studies including thoseby Grassman (1973), Page (1981), and Black (1990)revealed the following patterns. Trade in manufac-tured goods among the industrial economies ismost often priced in the currency of the exporter.If the exporterÕs currency is not used, then theimporterÕs currency is the most frequent choice.Only rarely is a third countryÕs currency used. Tradebetween industrial and developing countries isgenerally priced in the currency of the industrialcountry or that of a third country. Trade betweendeveloping countries is often priced in the currencyof a third country. When a third countryÕs currencyis used for invoicing trade, the U.S. dollar is themost likely choice. Trade in primary commoditiesis almost always invoiced in U.S. dollars becausethese products are predominantly priced in dollarson international exchanges. According to Hartmann (1996), two factorsthat explain these patterns are transaction costsand acceptability. The lower the cost of buying andselling a currency in the foreign exchange market,the more likely is its use for invoicing trade. Inaddition, the more accepted a currency is for othertransactions, the more likely it is to be used as aninvoice currency. Clearly these two factors are mally supportive. The more accepted a currency is, the lower its transaction costs; the lower its trans-action costs, the more likely it is to be accepted. Related factors that explain these patterns areconvertibility and the expected stability of thecurrency. As noted above, the use of the dollar asan invoice currency was prompted by the lack ofconvertibility of most other currencies in the 1950s.The limited use of developing countriesÕ currenciesin world trade arose in part because many of thesecountries restricted (and some continue to restrict)the convertibility of their currencies. Black (1990)showed that the share of a countryÕs exports inated in its domestic currency declines the greateris the expected depreciation of its currency. Thus,the currencies of countries with high inflation areseldom used in international trade.The mere creation of the euro as a currencyshould provide ample incentive for its use as aninvoice currency. Replacing the currencies of 12countries with a single currency reduces thetransaction costs involved in currency exchanges.Although only a small number of firms within theeuro area have already switched to invoicing ineuros, the advent of euro notes and coins, alongCTOBER An internationalization ratio greater than or equal to 1.0 does notimply that all of the home countryÕs exports are priced in its currency.According to data provided in Bekx (1998) in 1995, 92 percent of U.S.exports, 75 percent of German exports, 62 percent of British exports,and 52 percent of French exports were invoiced in their domesticcurrencies. Table 3 Trade Invoiced in Major Currencies Percent of world exportsInternationalization ratio Currency1980199519801995U.S. dollar56.452.04.53.9Japan

4 ese yen2.14.70.30.6Deutsche mark13.613.2
ese yen2.14.70.30.6Deutsche mark13.613.21.41.4French franc6.25.50.91.0British pound6.55.41.11.1Italian lira 2.23.30.5 0.8Netherlands guilder2.62.80.70.9Euro-424.624.8NANANOTE:Euro-4 is the share of the four euro-area currencies listed in the table.No data were available for the other euro-area currencies.World exports includes intra-euro-area trade.The internationalization ratio is the ratio of the share of world exports denominaa currency to the share of the issuing country in world exports. SOURCE:Bekx (1998,Table 3,p.8). with the withdrawal from circulation of the notesand coins of the legacy currencies in 2002, willprompt several changes. According to Page (1981),the use of the dollar is negligible in intra-EuropeanUnion trade, so the creation of the euro should nothave had a noticeable effect on invoicing in theregion. Where its effect is likely to be largest is inextra-euro-area trade, where most exports arelikely to be invoiced in euros. It is unlikely, how-ever, that trade currently invoiced in dollars andinvolving neither the euro area nor the UnitedStates will shift in the near term to euros. Thisargument is supported by the European CentralBank (ECB), which estimates that the percent ofworld exports denominated in euros Òis likely notto differ significantly from that of euro areaexportsÓ (ECB, 1999, p. 36). Thus, the internation-alization ratio for the euro area will be close to 1.What effects will the use of the euro as aninvoice currency have on the euro area and theUnited States? For firms in the euro area, gainsarise from a reduction in transactions costs and exchange rate risk. In intra-euro-area trade,exchange rate risk has already been eliminatedand the transactions costs will be eliminated by2002. Turning to the external trade of the euro area,the smaller euro-area countries will gain the mostfrom the reduction in transactions costs because,prior to the establishment of the euro, the limiteddemand for their currencies resulted in higher costsfor exchanging their currencies for other curren-cies. A rise in the share of euro-area external tradeinvoiced in euros may also reduce the exposure of itsbusinesses to short-term exchange rate variability.To the extent that there is an increase in the use ofthe euro in trade between the euro area and theUnited States, the exposure of U.S. businesses toexchange rate risk will rise. The importance of sucha change is unclear. There exists a wide range ofoptions to hedge exchange rate risk, but theseoptions are not costless. Magee and Rao (1980),however, argue that the currency of denominationin trade contracts is irrelevant if both the exporterand importer have the same risk preferences; thisCTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF Table 4 Volatility of Real Oil Prices in the United States and Germany* (Percent) Year Volatility of real U.S. $ price Volatility of real DM price F-test probability1985 4.5 5.7 48.8 1986 17.8 17.3 93.61987 5.7 5.8 96.61988 8.2 8.1 96.31989 6.3 6.9 79.01990 18.9 17.8 84.0 1991 8.6 9.5 74.81992 4.4 4.5 95.91993 4.6 4.9 85.61994 5.4 5.2 91.31995 5.3 6.2 61.41996 6.1 6.6 80.51997 6.8 6.3 79.41998 8.2 6.7 50.41999 9.4 10.0 84.32000 11.6 13.4 64.2NOTE:Shaded rows indicate no statistical difference in the volatility of real dollar vs.real mark crude oil prices.*Volatility is measured by the standard deviation of monthly changes in the real price of oil.The last column shows the probability that the standard deviations of the tw

5 o series are statistically equal. SOURCE
o series are statistically equal. SOURCE:IMF,International Financial Statistics,and Wall Street Journal is so because the contract price should incorporatean exchange rate risk premium.The dollar is also the main currency used forpricing internationally traded commodities, with theBritish pound being the only other currency used.As Tavlas (1997) notes, the commodity exchangeson which these products are traded are located incountries Òthat have a comparative advantage asfinancial centers,Ó thus explaining the dominanceof the United States and the United Kingdom andhence the currency choice.The creation of the euro is unlikely to lead toany change in the pricing of these commodities.The location of major commodity exchanges in theUnited States, while not a necessary requirementfor dollar pricing, does increase the likelihood thatthese commodities will continue to be priced indollars. Although it is possible that an integratedEurope will develop commodity exchanges to rivalthose of the United States, such a shift is likely to begradual. Any shift in pricing of these commoditiesis unlikely to occur until the stability of EuropeÕsnew monetary system is well established.Suppose, however, that there is eventually ashift in the pricing of commodities from dollars toeuros. Would such a change increase the volatilityof these prices for U.S. consumers while loweringthe volatility for euro-area consumers? For this tooccur, exchange rate fluctuations must not onlyintroduce another source of volatility into the priceof these commodities but must be positively corre-lated with the price volatility. There is no reason toexpect this to hold. An examination of data on the real price of crude oil in U.S. dollars and in marks illustrates this point. The real price of oil innational markets and the U.S. inflation rate, whereasthe real price of oil in Germany depends on thedollar price of oil in international markets, the dollar (now euro/dollar) exchange rate, and theGerman inflation rate. Table 4 indicates the yearlyvolatility of each of these measures from 1985 to2000. In 3 of the 16 years there was no statisticaldifference in the volatility of the real dollar price andthe real mark price of crude oil.In 8 of the 16 yearsthe volatility of the real mark price was greater thanthe volatility of the real dollar price. In the remain-ing 5 years the volatility of the real dollar price wasgreater than the volatility of the real mark price.These data do not provide clear support for theidea that having commodities priced in a countryÕsdomestic currency on world exchanges results inlower variability in the real domestic-currencyprice of the commodity.Financial AssetsIn international bond markets the U.S. dollarwas the currency of choice for nearly all issues inCTOBER In October 2000, Iraq began requiring payment for its oil exports ineuros. There is no indication that this move will be followed by othermajor oil producers. A general shift to requiring payment in euroswould probably hasten a switch to pricing oil in euros, but system is not without precedent. BŽnassy and Deusy-Fournier (1994)state that until 1974 oil was priced in dollars, but payment was madeMeasured by a 95 percent or higher probability. Table 5 Funds Raised in International Bond Markets by Currency of Issue (Percent) Currency 1950-591960-691970-791980-89U.S. dollar78.269.949.250.7Japanese yen0.00.05.28.9Swiss franc7.15.417.511.4Euro area*3.220.324.115.8Deu

6 tsche mark2.016.317.98.0Other E.U.8.73.1
tsche mark2.016.317.98.0Other E.U.8.73.10.76.8Pound sterling8.32.90.66.4*Euro area includes the currencies of all current members of the euro area and currency composites,such as the ecu.Other E.U.includes the currencies of Denmark,Greece,Sweden,and the United Kingdom. SOURCE:OECD,International Capital Market Statistics,1996,and Financial Statistics Monthly,June 1997. the 1950s. By the 1970s, however, the currencydenomination of bond issues had become morediversified, as shown in Table 5. Nevertheless, theU.S. dollar has remained the most popular currencychoice for issuing bonds in international markets,as shown in Table 6.By the 1960s the euro legacycurrencies, taken together as a group, had becomethe second most widely used currency in inter-national bond markets, a status that continues today.The Japanese yen was not used at all until the 1970s,and its share of new issues lags far below that of thedollar or euro. The use of the Swiss franc in inter-national bond markets, which rivaled the Deutschemark in the 1970s, declined precipitously in the1990s. In international money markets as well, thedollar is the currency of choice, but again itsdominance has declined, as noted in Table 6. Theincreased use of the euro legacy currencies in thesemarkets during the 1990s is particularly noteworthy.In 1993 these currencies accounted for 8.5 percentof the outstanding debt in international moneymarkets. By 1998 this share had increased to 19.2percent. CTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF The data in Tables 5 and 6 rely on different sources and hence maynot be directly comparable.Some policymakers in Switzerland were concerned that the creationof the euro might result in a sharp rise in demand for assets denomi-nated in Swiss francs. See Laxton and Prasad (1997) for an analysisof this argument. Table 6 International Debt Securities by Currency of Issue (Percent) Amounts outstandingShare of new issues Currency199319982000199819992000Total securities U.S. dollar41.145.948.754.145.244.0Japanese yen13.211.38.25.65.38.3Swiss franc7.33.82.23.32.01.7Euro area*24.827.230.124.636.8 33.9Other E.U.7.98.58.28.98.09.2Pound sterling7.67.97.88.37.79.1Bonds and notes U.S. dollar38.945.348.751.143.842.3Japanese yen14.011.78.66.36.711.4Swiss franc7.73.82.22.71.61.4Euro area*25.727.630.028.038.334.2Other E.U.8.18.58.19.07.38.4Pound sterling7.87.97.78.27.08.2Money Market U.S. dollar79.459.949.161.048.847.5Japanese yen0.22.52.34.01.41.9Swiss franc1.84.52.34.72.92.3Euro area*8.519.232.417.232.933.2Other E.U.4.18.4 9.58.89.811.0Pound sterling4.08.39.38.79.711.0*Euro area includes the currencies of the 11 original members of the euro area and currency composites,such as the ecu.Other E.U.includes the currencies of Denmark,Sweden,and the United Kingdom. SOURCE:Bank for International Settlements,Quarterly Review of International Banking and Financial Market Developments,March 2001. The creation of the euro led to a sharp rise inits use in international debt markets relative to itslegacy currencies. The share of new issues of inter-national securities denominated in the euro legacycurrencies was 24.6 percent in 1998. In the follow-ing year, the share denominated in euros was 36.8percent. Although the use of the euro relative to itslegacy currencies rose strongly in both the bondand money market, the increase was highest in themoney market. In international debt markets, thereis now a clear alternative to the use of the dollar.In intern

7 ational banking there is also evidenceof
ational banking there is also evidenceof currency diversification over the last two decades.Table 7 shows the assets and liabilities of banksaccounted for by transactions with foreign resi(either in the domestic or foreign currencies). the 1980s, 60 percent of the cross-border assets ofbanks were in dollars and 19 percent in the eurolegacy currencies. In the 1990s, the dollarÕs sharefell to 47 percent and the euro legacy currenciesÕshare rose to 27 percent. A similar pattern is notedfor cross-border liabilities. The advent of the euro,however, has had little initial effect on internationalbanking. The dollarÕs share of cross-border assetsremained nearly constant while its share of cross-border liabilities increased slightly. The oppositepattern held for euros. There was a slight increasein the share of cross-border assets denominated ineuros, relative to the euro legacy currencies, andvirtually no change in liabilities. The use of a countryÕs currency in internationalcapital markets is determined by the size, openness,and liquidity of that countryÕs financial marketsand the stability of its currency. The decline in thedollarÕs dominance in world capital markets, prior tothe creation of the euro, is a result of the emerof other strong economies that, in conjunctionwith the liberalization and deregulation of financialsystems worldwide, increased the attractiveness ofassets denominated in other currencies. This isparticularly evident in the bond markets wherethere has been a rapid increase in the number ofcurrencies used. The creation of the euro has spurred changeswithin euro-area financial markets. Integration hasbeen most evident in the money market. Overnightinterbank interest rates have become nearly har-monized throughout the euro area, aided in part bythe creation of the TARGET payments system andalso by the common monetary policy.the unsecured deposit market has become highlyintegrated, other aspects of the money market (forCTOBER Kool (2000) addresses the use of the euro in international bondmarkets.The data in Table 7 do not exclude bank transactions between mem-bers of the euro area.TARGET is an acronym for Trans-European Automated Real-timeGross settlement Express Transfer system. Table 7 BanksÕCross-Border Positions:Amounts Outstanding* (Percent) Currency 1983-89 1990-99 1998 1999 2000:Q3U.S. dollar 59.7 47.0 45.2 45.4 47.0Japanese yen 10.0 12.0 11.6 10.3 9.918.6 27.4 28.1 31.8 30.7Pound sterling 3.4 4.3 4.9 4.9 5.1Liabilities U.S. dollar 62.4 49.3 47.6 49.9 51.9Japanese yen 7.9 8.0 8.4 7.8 7.417.2 26.8 26.3 26.9 25.4Pound sterling 4.3 5.6 6.5 6.7 6.9*Includes both domestic and foreign currency assets and liabilities.Euro area includes the banks of the 11 original members of the euro area. SOURCE:Bank for International Settlements,Quarterly Review of International Banking and Financial Market Developments,March 2001. example the repo market and short-term securitiesmarket) remain more segregated.There also has been some progress in the bondmarket as both the size and integration of themarket have increased accompanied by an increasein liquidity in the secondary market.there has been an increase in euro bonds issued byresidents outside the euro area, most of the inter-national issues were placed by euro-area residents.One reason for the sharp increase in the latter is that the establishment of the euro reduced barriersto cross-border investment within the euro area.For example, insurance

8 companies and somepension funds within t
companies and somepension funds within the euro area are restrictedin their ability to issue international debt. Liabilitiesin a foreign currency must be 80 percent matchedby assets in that same currency. With the creation ofthe euro this matching rule becomes less restrictive.Despite this progress, Santill‡n et al. (2000) that the euro-area corporate bond market lags thatof the United States with regard to liquidity, size, andmarket completeness. Indeed the ability of Eurcapital markets to rival those of the United States,at least in the short-term, is not certain. Cecchetti(1999) cautions that differences in legal structuresacross Europe will limit the degree of integration offinancial structures. Kregel (2000) argues that theEuropean monetary union is based on Òan internalcontradiction which attempts to combine the prvation of the institutional characteristics of nationalmarkets with convergence of macroeconomic per-formance.Ó Thus he states it is not clear that theintroduction of the euro will eliminate nationalsegmentation.This segmentation also exists in the euro-areagovernment bond market. Although differences inyields on government bonds issued by the memberstates of the euro area have declined in the last sev-eral years, complete convergence has not occurred.According to a report by the Bank for InternationalSettlements (BIS) (2000b), these differences arecaused not so much by differences in risk but byÒtechnical and liquidity considerations.Ó The reportfurther notes that this lack of integration impliesthat no euro-area government bond market canserve as a benchmark for the whole euro area andas such there is no Òwell defined reference govern-ment yield curveÓ that would aid the pricing of euro-area corporate bond issues, among other things.Figure 1 illustrates these points using long-termgovernment bond yields for four euro-area countries.There was a noticeable convergence in yields as monetary union approached. Although differencesremain, these are likely related to the lack of acommon benchmark. As Figure 1 shows, there isno standard maturity structure for bonds in theeuro area. The euro-area government bond market thusdoes not present itself as a challenger to the U.S.market, which benefits from having a single issuerÑthe U.S. Treasury. In addition, in the United States,the Federal Reserve plays a role in the the government bond market.Prati (1997) argue that the use of open market operaas the primary tool of monetary policy by the FederalReserve Òhas fostered the development of efficientmoney and securities markets in the United States.ÓDaily Federal Reserve activity in the securities mar-ket, they state, occurs not simply from a monetarypolicy objective but the desire to promote Òthesmooth functioning and stability of financial mar-CTOBER2001 For a discussion of developments in these markets, see EuropeanCentral Bank (2000) and International Monetary Fund (1999).See Santill‡n et al. (2000) for an analysis of the effects of the euro onthe money and bond markets in Europe.Unlike the trade data, international bond market data currently donot exclude cross-border transactions within the euro area.The recent reduction in the federal debt has raised concerns aboutthe future liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market. See Fleming (2000)and Bennet et al. (2000) for a discussion of the effects of the declinein public debt and ways to maintain liquidity in the Treasury market. Figure 1 Gov

9 ernment Bond Yiel ds 1995199619971998199
ernment Bond Yiel ds 1995199619971998199920002001 Monthly data, various euro-area countriesSOURCE: IMF, International Financial Statistics.Percen EDERALESERVEANKOF kets.Ó Whereas, the infrequent interventions byindividual European central banks in markets Òtended to discourage the developmprivate securities markets and foster the predomi-nance of bank-intermediated finance.Ó The ECB hascontinued this practice of infrequent interventions.In general, it is active in securities markets onlyonce per week.For now U.S. financial markets continue to leadthe world in both size and liquidity. As a result, theU.S. dollar remains the major currency in inter-national bond markets. The euro, however, hasalready become a major player in these markets,and its use will likely expand as euro-area financialmarket integration proceeds. The development ofa euro-area capital market similar to the U.S. marketshould provide benefits to both economies byincreasing the options available to borrowers andlenders on both sides of the Atlantic.Vehicle CurrencyThere are no direct data available on vehiclecurrencies, but this information can be gleaned fromthe shares of currencies in foreign exchange trans-actions, as shown in Table 8.In 1998 the dollar wasinvolved in 87 percent of all currency exchanges.The euro legacy currencies were involved in 52percent of all exchanges, with the Deutsche markthe most often traded of these currencies. The yenwas used in 21 percent of all currency trades. ThedollarÕs dominance was especially clear in forwardand swap transactions. The dollar was involved in81 percent of all forward trades compared with themarkÕs and yenÕs shares of 28 and 27 percent, rtively. In swaps the contrast was even greater. Thedollar was involved in 95 percent of all swaps, with the mark and yen taking part in 20 and 17 percent,respectively, of all trades. The use of the dollar in foreign exchange trans-actions was well above its use in international tradeand debt contracts, indicating its role as a vehiclecurrency. The BIS (1999) notes that evidence of thedollarÕs role as a vehicle currency is provided by itsuse in seven of the ten most heavily traded currencypairs. The report also notes that it is standard prac-tice for the dollar to be used as a vehicle currencyin swaps, which explains the high percentage ofswaps involving the U.S. dollar and the low use ofthe yen and mark in these trades.The use of a currency as a vehicle currency isdetermined primarily by transactions costs. Trans-actions costs are inversely related to volume in bilateral currency market.This volume is in turndetermined by a currencyÕs share in internationaltrade and capital flows. Thus, the use of a currencyin invoicing international trade, in internationalcapital markets, and as a reserve currency lowersthe transactions costs associated with the use ofthat currency.A vehicle currency emerges whenever theindirect exchange costs through the vehicle are lessthan direct exchange costs between two non-vehiclecurrencies. For example, given the depth of theexchange market for dollars, it may be less costlyCTOBER These data are gathered from a triennial survey of foreign exchangemarkets conducted by the BIS.Since there are two currencies involved in an exchange, the totalshare of all currencies traded on international exchanges will equal200 percent. However, a single currency can, at most, be involved in100 percent of all exchanges.The use of transac

10 tions cost theory to explain the rise of
tions cost theory to explain the rise of a vehiclecurrency was developed by Krugman (1980) and Chrystal (1984). Table 8 Foreign Exchange Market Transactions Involving Select Currencies (Percent of Total) April 1998 Category U.S. dollar Japanese yen Deutsche mark French franc Euro area* Pound sterling Spot 78.824.742.73.3 56.811.6Forwards 81.426.728.05.1 50.712.3 Swaps 95.2 16.720.06.548.810.2Total 87.4 20.829.85.1 52.2 11.0*Euro area includes the currencies of the current member countries plus the Danish krone and the ecu.SOURCE:Bank for International Settlements,Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity 1998.Basle: BIS,May 1999. to exchange Mexican pesos for U.S. dollars and thenexchange U.S. dollars for Korean won rather thanto exchange pesos directly for won. Indeed, theexistence of transaction costs may reinforce the useof the dollar as an invoice currency.The extent of liquidity in asset markets alsoaffects the development of a vehicle currency. prefer to hold most of their foreign currencies inthe form of interest-earning assets rather than cash.The liquidity of these assets is a key determinant ofthe transactions costs involved in switching fromone currency to another. Liquidity is determinednot simply by the size of a countryÕs capital marketsbut also by the extent to which secondary marketsoperate.The prospects of the euro becoming an impor-tant vehicle currency thus depend primarily on thetransactions costs associated with euro exchanges.Clearly the size of the euro currency market relativeto the markets for individual euro currencies willresult in lower relative transactions costs for theeuro. These transactions costs will also depend onthe extent to which the euro is adopted as (1) aninvoice currency, (2) a reserve currency, and (3) aprevalent currency in international capital markets.Preliminary data indicate that the euro hasincreased its role as a vehicle currency to alevel beyond that of the mark. According to the BIS(2000a), the market share of the euro in currencymarkets during 1999 was close to the share of theDeutsche mark in 1998. Indeed, because a vehiclecurrency is no longer needed to facilitate examong the euro currencies, the use of the euro as avehicle currency has probably declined relative tothat of the mark. Evidence on the limited use of theeuro as a vehicle currency is also provided by datafrom foreign exchange markets in emerging marketcountries. The use of the euro in these markets dur-ing 1999 was concentrated in Eastern Europe, againsimilar to that of the mark in 1998. In Thailand andKorea for example, the euro was involved in lessthan 1 percent of local currency trades (BIS 2000a). Another role that an international currencymay play is as a substitute for domestic-currencytransactions. Uncertainty surrounding the purchas-ing power of a domestic currency can lead to theuse of a foreign currency as a unit of account, storeof value, and medium of exchange in the domesticeconomy. This generally occurs as a result of hinflation and/or political instability. In the decades prior to the creation of the euro,the dollar and the mark were the only currenciesused extensively outside their respective borders,with the dollar being the predominate substitutecurrency. In part, this predominance of the dollarwas a result of the links between the United Statesand countries using a substitute currency. Never-theless, the ease of availability of the

11 dollar, whichboth determines and encoura
dollar, whichboth determines and encourages its other uses asan international currency, continues to facilitatethe use of the dollar as a substitute currency.Measures of the extent to which currencies areused as substitute currencies are not easily obtHowever, the best estimates indicate that about 55percent of the total U.S. currency held by the non-bank public was held abroad at the end of 1995.About 35 percent of Deutsche mark holdings wereabroad (Seitz, 1995).The use of the U.S. dollar as a substitute currencybegan in earnest in the 1920s as a result of hyper-inflations in several European countries.in Latin America expanded in the 1980s also as aresult of hyperinflation. Most recently, the collapseof the Soviet Union expanded the use of the dollarin that region.Although the dollar is the preferredsubstitute currency in the former Soviet Union, theGerman mark is more prevalent in some EasternEuropean countries as well as in the former Yugoslavrepublics.The use of the dollar as a substitute currencyprovides a direct benefit to the United States thrseigniorage earnings. These earnings are generallyestimated by calculating the amount the U.S. govern-ment would have to pay if, rather than holding individuals in these countries held U.S. Treasurysecurities. The top panel of Figure 2 provides arough estimate of the real seigniorage earned bythe United States as a result of foreign holdings ofU.S. currency during the period 1973-99.In realterms, seigniorage revenues have averaged $8.7CTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF See Anderson and Rasche (2000) and Porter and Judson (1996).According to Anderson and Rasche, the share of U.S. currency heldabroad increased throughout the 1970s and 1980s but fell slightly inthe 1990s. The dollar was preferred to the British pound as the latter had yet toreturn to the gold standard after World War I.According to the U.S. Treasury (2000), Argentina and Russia arebelieved to have the largest holdings of U.S. currency outside theUnited States.These seigniorage revenues are estimated by using the interest rateon one-year Treasury bills and adjusting nominal revenues using theGDP deflator. billion on a yearly basis over this period. One methodof estimating the importance of these seignioragerevenues is to calculate the share of governmentexpenditures accounted for by these revenues. Thisis shown in the bottom panel of Figure 2. On averageless than 1 percent of the expenditures of the U.S.federal government have been financed by revenues on currency held abroad.The euro is not likely to rapidly replace thedollar as the substitute currency of choice. In fact,the use of the euro as a substitute currency is likely to lag behind its use as an international currency.Foreign holders of a substitute currency want a sta-ble, secure currency. Uncertainty surrounding thevalue of the euro, particularly given its declineagainst the dollar during the first two years of itsexistence, will limit the near-term attractiveness ofthe euro as a substitute currency.If the euro does become increasingly used as asubstitute currency, the seigniorage earnings of theECB will rise. It is difficult to predict how large theserevenues might be, as they depend on the worlddemand for substitute currencies, the shares of theeuro and the dollar, and interest rate conditions.Emerson et al. (1992) estimated that these seignior-revenues would, at most, amount to $2.5 billiona year for the ECB.THE OFFICIAL USES

12 OF AN INTERNATIONAL CURRENCYExchange Ra
OF AN INTERNATIONAL CURRENCYExchange Rate PegUnder the Bretton Woods system that existedfrom 1946 to 1973, most currencies in the worldwere tied to the U.S. dollar. With the demise of theBretton Woods system, many countries chose to lettheir currencies float while others set the value oftheir currency against that of another country. Ofcontinued to peg their currency to the U.S. dollar.In 1975, 52 members countries (about 41 percent)of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) peggedtheir currency to the dollar, as shown in Table 9.The euro legacy currencies were the second mostpopular choice. The French franc was the peg forthe African Financial Community (CFA) franc, thecurrency used by the then 13 members of the CFA;and the Spanish peseta was the exchange rate pegfor the currency of Equatorial Guinea. The poundwas the only other European Union currency to beused as an exchange rate peg. Over time the popularity of currency pegs hasdeclined. However, both the number and percent-age of member countries pegging their currenciesto the euro have risen. In 2000, 24 IMF membercountries tied their currencies to the euro.The 14CTOBER The seigniorage benefits must be weighed against the problems theforeign holdings of currency create for monetary policy. As Porterand Judson (1996) note, if foreign demand for a countryÕs currency isunrelated to domestic demand, then the interpretation of movementsin monetary aggregates becomes more difficult.These 24 include San Marino, which uses the Italian lira as its currency,and Greece, which is now a member of the euro area. Figure 2 Seignorage Revenues from Foreign Holdingsof U.S. Dolla 19737577798183858789919395971999 19737577798183858789919395971999Billions of 1996$Percent of federal government expenditures CFA members continue to constitute the majorityof countries whose currencies are tied to the euro.Most of the remaining 10 countries whose curren-cies are pegged to the euro hope to be in the firstor second wave of enlargements of the EuropeanUnion. In addition, Denmark, which is one of thethree members of the European Union who are notcurrently members of the euro area, ties its currencyto the euro through the Exchange Rate MechanismAccording to these data, the U.S. dollar is nowthe second most popular choice for a currency peg,with 23 countries officially tying their currencies tothe dollar.In practice, however, the dollar remthe currency against which most countries limitmovements in their domestic currencies. For exam-ple, 20 countries in addition to those listed in Table 9strictly limit the movement of their domestic cur-rencies against the dollar. Some of these currenciesare officially tied to another currency. Jordan, forexample, officially pegs its currency to the SDR butin practice pegs to the U.S. dollar.The primary reason countries choose to pegtheir currency to another currency is to reduceexchange rate risk and/or to control inflation. Keep-ing the currency stable against the peg, or settinglimits on exchange rate changes, minimizes therisk to those borrowing or lending in foreign cur-rencies or engaged in international trade. Theunexpected failure of a currency peg, however, canproduce sharp changes in the exchange value ofthe local currency and lead to losses on contractspriced in foreign currencies. Partly as a result, pegshave become less popular over the last 30 years. For those countries who do peg, the currency choice is usually determined by

13 trade and financiallinks. This explains
trade and financiallinks. This explains why, among countries with cur-rency pegs, Latin American and Caribbean counare pegged to the dollar while most European andAfrican countries peg to the euro. Likewise, becauseoil is priced in dollars on world markets, many oilexporting countries either officially or in practicelimit the fluctuations of their currency against thedollar.The introduction of the euro has not resultedin any countries shifting their peg from the dollarto the euro. Nonetheless, it is likely that the shareof currencies pegged to the euro will rise as moreof the countries hoping to be admitted to theEuropean Union may peg their currencies to theeuro. In addition, any European Union countrywanting to enter the euro area will have to first pegto the euro. Any effect on the euro area and the United Stcaused by an increase in the number of countriespegging their currencies to the euro relative to thosepegging to the dollar will occur through the effectsof these pegs on foreign currency reserves. Reserve CurrencyIn 1973 the dollar accounted for 76.1 percentof the official foreign currency reserves held by theCTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF Established in 1979, ERM was the fixed exchange rate system of theEuropean Monetary System. With the creation of the euro, ERM wasreplaced by ERM II, linking the currencies of Denmark and Greece(until January 2001) to the euro.These 23 include five countries (Ecuador, Marshall Island, Micronesia,Palau, and Panama) that use the U.S. dollar as the local currency. InJanuary 2001, El Salvador (which is not included in the 23) also adoptedthe U.S. dollar. Table 9 Currency Pegs U.S. dollarEuro currenciesOther E.U. YearNumberPercent NumberPercentNumberPercent19755240.61410.986.319803927.71510.610.719853120.8149.410.7199025 16.2159.7 00.019952212.2179.400.020002312.624 13.200.0 SOURCE:IMF,Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions,various issues. member countries of the IMF, as shown in the toppanel of Figure 3. The euro legacy currencies hadan 8.7 percent share of foreign currency reserves,and the pound sterling had a 5.6 percent share.Holdings of yen were only 0.1 percent of totalreserves.The dollarÕs share in foreign currency reservesdeclined in the late 1970s as some countries diver-sified their holdings, shifting primarily into eurolegacy currencies, particularly Deutsche marks.Although the dollarÕs share fell again in the late1980s, it has increased somewhat since 1991 to stand at 66.2 percent in 1999.The share of theeuro currencies peaked in 1989 at 31.1 percentand has fallen steadily since then, standing at 12.5percent in 1999. The share of the yen rose slowlythrough most of the 1970s and 1980s, reaching apeak of 8.5 percent in 1991. Since then the yenÕsshare has fallen, reaching 5.1 percent in 1999.CTOBER These shifts in holdings of reserves are affected both by changes inthe physical holdings of currency and changes in exchange rates. the IMF measures reserve holdings in U.S. dollars, a rise in the exvalue of the dollar will raise the dollar share of foreignexchange reserves. Figure 3 19731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999PercentCurrency Composition of Foreign Exchange ReservesReserves of All Countrie s 19731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999Reserves of Industrial CountriesPercen 19731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999 US dollarJapanese yenEuro currencies PercentReserves of

14 Developing CountriesSOURCE: IMF, Annual
Developing CountriesSOURCE: IMF, Annual Report (various years) . In the 1970s the developing countries, as agroup, had more diversified holdings of foreigncurrencies than did the industrial countries, asshown in the middle and lower panels of Figure 3.Throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s, however,the developing countries held a greater share oftheir reserves in dollars than did the industrialcountries. Currently there is little difference in thecurrency composition of reserves across develop-ing and industrial countries.These changes can beexplained by examining why countries hold reserves.Governments and central banks hold reserves forthree main purposes: (i) to finance imports; (ii) tofinance foreign debt; and (iii) to intervene in cur-rency markets to manage the exchange rate.advanced economies, private markets generallyfulfill the role of financing trade and debt. Hence,reserves are held primarily for intervention purposes. In developing countries all three purposes areimportant. The currencies in which imports areinvoiced in developing countries is a key determi-nant of the composition of reserves. Similarly,because reserves also are important for financingforeign debt, the currency composition of this debtwill affect the currency composition of reserves. Asshown in Table 10, the long-term debt of developingdollars. Euro-area currencies are the next preferredchoice, but this share has declined slightly over thepast 30 years. Most noticeable has been the declinein the use of the pound in debt contracts of develop-ing countries. This decline is partly reflected in therelative fall in pound reserves held by developingcountries. In contrast, the rise in use of the yen in debt contracts between 1970 and 1990 is reflectedin the rise in yen foreign exchange reserves.The currency choice of reserves for intervenpurposes depends in part on a countryÕs exchangerate regime. Heller and Knight (1978) showed that,if a country pegged its exchange rate to a particularcurrency, that currencyÕs share in its reserves rose.Dooley et al. (1989) showed that industrial econ-omies with flexible exchange rates had a high shareof dollar reserves and a low share of Deutsche markreserves. Among industrial economies, the mainfixed exchange rate regime was the ERM. Theestablishment of the ERM in 1979 coincides withthe sharp rise in the share of euro legacy curren-cies (particularly marks) in the foreign currencyreserves of industrial economies.The importanceof the exchange rate arrangement in determiningthe currency composition of a countryÕs reserves islinked to the use of these reserves for interveningin the currency markets.The risk and return on currencies is also a factorin determining the currency composition of reserves.Most reserves are held in the form of governmentsecurities. Thus, changes in the relative return onthese securities in conjunction with the depreciarisk, particularly if sustained over a long period,may cause shifts in a countryÕs composition ofreserves. In addition, the liquidity of governmentsecurities markets is a factor in determining thechoice of reserve currency because reserves mayneed to be sold quickly for intervention purposes.CTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF See Ben-Bassat (1980, 1984) and Dooley et al. (1989).Data in Masson and Turtelboom (1997) indicate that the EuropeanUnion countries held 69 percent of the Deutsche mark reserves heldby industrial countries in 1995. Table 10 Currenc

15 y Composition of Long-Term Debt in Devel
y Composition of Long-Term Debt in Developing Countries (Percent) Currency 1970 1980 1990 1999U.S. dollar 47.1 49.8 41.256.0Japanese yen 2.3 6.9 10.5 12.6Euro-area currencies 13.8 12.1 14.3 9.3Pound sterling 11.2 3.4 2.3 1.2Multiple currencies 11.6 10.9 14.7 8.2Other currencies 14.0 16.9 17.0 12.7 SOURCE:World Bank,Global Development Finance,2001. What has been the initial effect of the creationof the euro on the currency composition of reserves?As Figure 3 indicates, the dollarÕs share has risenand the euroÕs share has fallen. This occurred fortwo reasons: the elimination of ecu reserves andthe reclassification of intra-euro-area holdings ofeuro currency reserves.At the end of 1997, ecureserves accounted for 10.7 percent of the foreigncurrency reserves of industrial countries and 5.0percent of the reserves of all countries. Most ofthese ecu reserves were claims on the EuropeanMonetary Institute, the precursor to the EuropeanCentral Bank. They had been issued to the centralbanks of the European Union countries in exfor gold and dollar deposits. In late 1998 the were returned to these central banks and the ecureserves were eliminated. This explains the sharpdrop in euro legacy currency reserves in the indus-trial countries in 1998. With the advent of the euroin 1999, holdings by euro-area countries of the eurolegacy currencies ceased to be foreign currencyreserves. This led to a further decline in the shareof the euro in the foreign currency reserves ofindustrial countries. The importance of the transition to the euro indriving movements in the currency composition ofworldwide reserves over the last two years is furindicated by looking at the developing countries.As the bottom panel of Figure 3 indicates, the euroshare of reserves held by developing countries roseslightly in the last few years. In 1997 the euro legacycurrencies accounted for 12 percent of the reservesof developing countries. At the end of 1999, theeuro accounted for 13.6 percent of their reserves.Thus, while there is no evidence that the creationof the euro has led to a drop in the relative holdingsof euros outside the euro area, neither is there evi-dence of a marked rise in these holdings. tion of world reserves is not surprising. The tradeand debt financing needs of the developing coun-tries remain primarily in dollars. Certainly, as theeuroÕs use as an international medium of exchangerises, countries are likely to increase their holdingsof euro reserves. It is also unlikely that the creationof the euro has had a noticeable effect on thedemand for reserves for intervention purposes.Central banks are unlikely to sell much of theirdollar holdings to buy euros without good cause.The ECB notes Òcentral banks traditionally refrainfrom abrupt and large changes in the level andcomposition of their foreign reservesÓ (ECB, 1999, p. 41). Johnson (1994) argues that as long as theFederal Reserve achieves an acceptable degree ofprice stability in the United States, changes inreserve holdings should occur gradually.The implications of a shift in internationalreserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward theeuro depend on the speed at which such a changewould occur. A massive sale of dollars by centralbanks and the purchase of euros would cause asharp drop in the value of the dollar relative to theeuro. This shift would also raise interest rates onU.S. government securities since, as noted above,most reserves are held in government securities.

16 Incontrast, the euro would rise in valu
Incontrast, the euro would rise in value and interestrates in the euro area would drop. As discussedabove, this scenario is improbable. The ECB (1999)asserts that portfolio shifts are Òexpected to takeplace at a slower pace in the central bank commu-nity than in the private sector.Ó Indeed, despiteconcerns with the euro area over the decline in theforeign exchange value of the euro, the nationalcentral banks have not sold noticeable amounts oftheir substantial holdings of dollar reserves.A gradual shift in international reserves towardthe euro is unlikely to have much effect on theUnited States or the euro area. Because nearly allinternational reserves are invested in governmentsecurities, the reserve currency country does notgain any seigniorage benefits. The most importantbenefit is the possibility that reserve currency sta-tus lowers the interest rate at which the govern-ment can borrow. Thus, it is argued that the euroarea will benefit through a reduction in the interestrate at which governments can borrow while theU.S. government will see its borrowing costs rise.A negative interest rate effect on the UnitedStates would require not simply a rise in the shareCTOBER The ecu, or more formally, European currency unit, was a weightedaverage of the European Union currencies. Although it never existedas a paper currency, it was used as the unit of account for officialEuropean Union activities and a small ecu private bond market eThe ecu was superceded by the euro.Hong Kong, however, announced in late 1999 that it was increasingthe share of the euro in its foreign currency reserves.The national central banks transferred a small portion of theirreserves to the ECB upon its creation but kept most of the remainingreserves. As of September 2000, the foreign exchange reserves of theECB were $43.7 billion while the reserves of the national central were $212.2 billion. In contrast, the United States held $31.2 billionin foreign exchange reserves. Although the national central banksmay have wanted to hold on to their reserves to handle any possiblecrisis in the early years of the euro, the available pool of reserves ismore than sufficient to handle any problems. of reserves held in euros, but an absolute declinein holdings of dollar reserves. Given the trends inthe growth of worldwide reserves, the latter changewill take longer (if ever) to occur than the former.In addition, the extent of the interest rate benefit toa reserve currency is not well established. Blinder(1996) is skeptical of the importance of such a link.He argues that if such a benefit were significantthen there should be a larger difference betweeninterest rates on government and corporate bondsin the United States than in other major countries;yet he finds no evidence to support this argument.The euro area is more likely to see a fall in govern-ment borrowing costs from measures to standardizegovernment bond markets than through an increasein the use of the euro as a reserve currency (BIS,Intervention CurrencyA corollary to the dollarÕs role as the primaryinternational reserve currency is its use as the maincurrency for intervening in foreign exchange mar-kets. This latter role is also aided by the use of thedollar as a vehicle currency and by the liquidity ofthe U.S. bond market, as discussed earlier in thisarticle. Although data on interventions are limited,it is believed that nearly all intervention in the cur-rencies markets, with the

17 exception of those under-taken by the Un
exception of those under-taken by the United States, takes place in dollars.The most important determinants of the choiceof intervention currency are liquidity and accept-ability. In countries that peg their exchange rate, thecurrency peg will determine the intervention cur-rency. Since countries prefer to hold their reservesin the form of interest-earning assets, the liquidityof these assets is extremely important. The relativeilliquidity of the euro-area and Japanese bond mar-kets gives the dollar an advantage over the use ofthese two currencies.The acceptability of an international currencyis related to its role as a medium of exchange forprivate transactions. The more frequently a currencyis used for private transactions the larger is theexchange market for that currency, which increasesthe ease with which a country can use the currencyfor intervention purposes. CONCLUSIONFactors determining whether a countryÕs cur-rency will be used readily outside its border includethe size and openness of its economy and financial markets as well as its macroeconomic policy envi-ronment. In the postwar period, these factors havefavored the use of the U.S. dollar as the predomiinternational currency. In the early postwar period,there were few alternatives to the dollar in inter-national markets as a result of restrictions on con-vertibility and limits on capital mobility. In the lastseveral decades, as other major economic powersemerged (notably Germany and Japan) and marketsopened, the dollarÕs dominance has been reduced.Nonetheless, the dollar has remained the mostimportant international currency.On January 1, 1999, the euro was created, link-ing an economic area nearly the size of the U.S.economy. The euroÕs impact will be felt in marketsthroughout the world economy. For the first timethe dollar faces a potential challenge to its role asthe worldÕs major international currency.In the first two years of its existence, the euroÕspresence has been felt most in international secu-rities markets. Issues of euro-denominated foreignbonds surged in 1999. The euro legacy currenciesaccounted for 28.0 percent of new bond issues in1998. The share of new issues denominated ineuros was 38.3 percent in 1999. In internationalmoney markets, the euroÕs presence was even moreobvious. International money market instrumentsdenominated in euros in 1999 accounted for 32.9percent of the market, well above the 17.2 percentshare of the legacy currencies in 1998. Althoughthe euroÕs share of international debt securitiesdeclined in 2000, the euro continues to be a widelyused alternative to the dollar in these markets. Littlechange, however, has occurred in the use of the eurorelative to the dollar in the other functions of aninternational currency. In the short-term there is unlikely to be muchchange in this pattern. Over time, however, the useof the euro relative to the dollar will likely increase,particularly as euro-area financial markets becomemore integrated and more liquid. Nevertheless, thedecline in the dollarÕs share and the rise in theeuroÕs share in international transactions is likelyto occur gradually. In part, this is because the moreoften a currency is used in international transac-CTOBER2001 EDERALESERVEANKOF Under the rules of the ERM, mandatory interventions (when theexchange rate reached its upper or lower limit) had to take place inone of the member currencies. Non-mandatory (intra-band) interven-tions coul

18 d take place in any currency, and genera
d take place in any currency, and generally dollars were See Giavazzi (1989) for details.The existence of swap arrangements between central banks can offsetsome of these liquidity problems. tions, the lower are the costs associated with usingthat currency and hence the more attractive is thecurrency for conducting international exchanges.Thus, there is much inertia in the choice of an national currency. The British pound, for example,continued to play a major role as an internationalcurrency long after its dominance of the globaleconomy waned.Policies on the part of the governments andcentral banks in the euro area and the United Stateswill play a crucial role in the use of their currenciesin international markets. The ability of the euro-area governments to foster sustained economicgrowth in the region is important. Equally impor-tant is the credibility of the ECB. The ability of theECB to maintain a low inflationary environment inthe euro area is a key factor in determining the useof the euro outside the region. In addition, conabout the attachment of European governmentsand the public to a monetary union will underminethe use of the euro in international markets. use of the dollar as an international currency areStates. As Lawrence Summers noted when he wasDeputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, ÒUltimately,the dollarÕs relative standing in the internationalfinancial system will always depend more ondevelopments here than on events elsewhereÓ(Summers, 1997). In the absence of an economiccrisis in the United States, the dollar is not likely tolose its standing as the most popular internationalcurrency. Any shifts in the roles of the dollar and eurowill affect both the United States and the EuropeanUnion. The extent to which a country benefits fromhaving its currency used internationally is not clear.The use of a currency for invoicing may reduce thecosts borne by that countryÕs importers, but thesecosts may be small at best. The use of a currencyas a reserve currency may reduce the borrowingcosts of that countryÕs government, but again theextent of this benefit is not known. The use of a cur-rency as a substitute currency does provide age benefits but also complicates monetary policy.Moreover, if these seigniorage revenues arise as aresult of an economic and/or political instability, thebenefit to the country earning the seigniorage maybe more than offset by the costs of the instability.The creation of the euro has the potential toproduce benefits to both the United States and theeuro area that could far outweigh the effects of any shifts in international currency holdings. Develop-ments in European financial markets alone shouldincrease the investment options available to con-sumers as well as reduce the costs of borrowing forbusinesses. These developments will benefit thoseon both sides of the Atlantic.Anderson, Richard G. and Rasche, Robert H. ÒThe Adjusted Monetary Base.Ó Working Paper 2000-002A,Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 2000.Bank for International Settlements. BIS Quarterly ReviewBasle: BIS, February 2000a.70th Annual Report. Basle: BIS, June 2000b.Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange andDerivatives Market Activity 1998. Basle: BIS, May 1999.Bekx, Peter. ÒThe Implications of the Introduction of theEuro for Non-EU Countries.Ó Euro Papers Number 26,European Commission, Directorate General Economicand Financial Affairs, July 1998.Ben-Bassat, Avraham. ÒThe Optimal Composition

19 of ForExchange Reserves.Ó Journal of In
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