Precurso r Strategy An alysis Group PSAG jointly sponsored by MEPAG and SBAG Executive Summary for MEPAG Oct 4 2012 JPL CL12 2401 HISTORY Last MEPAG meeting Feb 2728 Chartered March 1 by SMD and HEOMD to produce rapid inputs to MPPG ID: 751180
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1
Analysis of Strategic Knowledge Gaps Associated with Potential Human Missions to the Martian SystemPrecursor Strategy Analysis Group (P-SAG) (jointly sponsored by MEPAG and SBAG)Executive Summary for MEPAGOct. 4, 2012
JPL CL#12-
2401Slide2
HISTORY
Last MEPAG meeting: Feb. 27-28Chartered March 1 by SMD and HEOMD to produce rapid inputs to MPPG.Review copy released May 31.Initial findings presented by the MEPAG Chair for public discussion at LPI workshop “Concepts and Approaches for Mars Exploration”, June 12-14.Feedback incorporated.Refined results accepted by MEPAG Executive Committee, and presented to MPPG June 30July: P-SAG dissolvedThis MEPAG meeting: Oct. 42Slide3
P-SAG Contributors
Facilitation/Support: Charles Budney (MPO), Rich Zurek (MPO), Deborah Bass (MPO)Technical experts consulted: Atmosphere/EDL: Alicia Dwyer Cianciolo (LaRC), Farzin Amzajerdian (LaRC), Hunter Waite (SwRI), Dave Hinson (Stanford)
Resources: R.M. Hembree (JSC), Bill Larson (KSC), Bruce Campbell, Mike Wolff (SSI),
Diane
Linne
(GRC), Phil Metzger (KSC), R.T. Clancy, M. Smith (GSFC), T.
McConnochie (GSFC), Patrick Peplowski (APL).Radiation, Human health/performance: Francis Cucinotta (JSC), John James (JSC), Insoo Jun (JPL), Humans to Mars orbit/Phobos/Deimos: Julie Castillo-Rogez (JPL), Dan Mazanek (LaRC), and Lee Graham (JSC). Mars surface operations: Chirold Epp (JSC), Paul Hintze (KSC), Philip Metzger (KSC), Sandra Wagner (JSC)Technology Planning: Scott Vangen (KSC), Mars Program Office technical staff
3
Ex-officio team membersBaker, JohnJPLDrake, BretJSCHamilton, VickyMEPAGLim, DarleneMEPAGDesai, PrasunHQ-OCTMeyer, MichaelHQ-SMDWadhwa, MiniCAPTEMWargo, MikeHQ-HEO
Co-chairs Carr, MikeUSGS (ret)Beaty, DaveMPOTeam members Abell, PaulJSCBarnes, JeffacademiaBoston, PennyacademiaBrinkerhoff, WillGSFCCharles, JohnJSCDelory, GregacademiaHead, JimacademiaHeldmann, JenARCHoffman, SteveJSCKass, DavidJPLMunk, MichelleLaRCMurchie, ScottAPLRivkin, AndyAPLSanders, GerryJSCSteele, Andrewacademia
n = 28Slide4
SKG and GFA: Definitions
4Strategic Knowledge Gap (SKG): The Gaps in Knowledge Needed to Achieve a Specific Goal.Gap-Filling Activity (GFA): Work that contributes to closing an SKG.
Knowledge we have
Knowledge Gaps
Total knowledge needed to achieve a goal
GFA areas
Mars flight program
Flights to other places
Non-flight work (models, lab experiments, field analogs, etc.)
Technology demosSlide5
Process Summary
The Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) associated with each of the following goals have been defined:First human mission to martian orbit (Goal IV-).First human mission to land on either Phobos or DeimosFirst human mission to the martian surface (Goal IV).
Sustained human presence on Mars (
Goal IV
+
)
The SKGs have been broken down into
Gap-Filling Activities (GFAs), and each has been evaluated for priority, required timing, and platform.The relationship of the above to the science objectives for the martian system (using existing MEPAG, SBAG, and NRC scientific planning), has been evaluated.Five areas of significant overlap have been identified. Within these areas it would be possible to develop exciting mission concepts with dual purpose.The priorities relating to the Mars flight program have been organized by mission type, as an aid to future mission planners: orbiter, lander/rover, Mars Sample Return (MSR), and Phobos/Deimos.5Slide6
SKG
Gap-Filling Activity
Priority
Timing
Location
A1
Upper
Atmosphere
A1-1. Global temperature field.
HIV-Mars OrbitA1-2. Global aerosol profiles and propertiesHIV-Mars OrbitA1-3. Global winds and wind profilesMIV-Mars OrbitA2 Atm. ModelingA2-1. Atm. Modeling.HIV-
EarthA3Orbital ParticulatesA3-1. Orbital particulate environmentMIV-Mars OrbitA4Technology: To/from Mars SystemA4-1. Autonomous rendezvous and docking demoHIV-Earth or Mars OrbitA4-2. Optical Comm. Tech demoHIV-Earth or Mars OrbitA4-3. Aerocapture demoMIV-Earth or Mars OrbitA4-4. Auto systems tech demoLIV-EarthA4-5. In space prop tech demoHIV-EarthA4-6. Life support tech demoHIV-EarthA4-7. Mechanisms tech demoLIV-EarthB1
Lower
Atmosphere
B1-1. Dust Climatology
H
IV Late
Mars Orbit
B1-2. Global surface pressure; local weather
H
IV Early
Mars surface
B1-3. Surface winds
M
IV Early
Mars surface
B1-4. EDL profilesMIV EarlyMars EDLB1-5. Atmospheric Electricity conditionsLIV LateMars surfaceB1-6. EDL demoHIV EarlyMars EDLB1-7. Ascent demoHIV EarlyEarth or Mars SurfaceB2Back ContaminationB2-1. BiohazardsHIV EarlySample returnB3 Crew Health & PerformanceB3-1. Neutrons with directionalityMIV LateMars surfaceB3-2. Simultaneous spectra of solar energetic particles in space and in the surface.MIV LateMars surface and Mars orbitB3-3. Spectra of galactic cosmic rays in space.LIV LateNEAR EARTHB3-4. Spectra of galactic cosmic rays on surface.MIV LateMars surfaceB3-5. Toxicity of dust to crewMIV LateSample returnB3-6. Radiation protection demoHIV LateEarth or Mars SurfaceB4Dust Effects on Surface SystemsB4-1. ElectricityLIV LateMars surfaceB4-2. Dust physical, chemical and electrical propertiesHIV LateMars Surface or Sample returnB4-3. Regolith physical properties and structureMIV LateMars Surface or Sample return
GFA Analysis (1 of 2)
6
See notes on page 10.
For full statements of SKGs, see Appendix 1.Slide7
SKG
Gap-Filling Activity
Priority
Timing
Location
B5
Forward Contamination
B5-1. Identify and map special regions
H
IV LateMars surface and Mars orbitB5-2. Model induced special regionsLIV LateEarthB5-3. Microbial survival, Mars conditionsMIV LateEarthB5-4. Develop contaminant dispersal modelMIV LateEarthB5-5. Forward Contamination Tech demo
MIV LateEarth or Mars SurfaceB6Atmospheric ISRUB6-1. Dust physical, chemical and electrical propertiesHIV LateMars Surface or Sample returnB6-2. Dust column abundancesLIV LateMars surfaceB6-3. Trace gas abundancesLIV LateMars OrbitB7Landing Site and HazardsB7-1. Regolith physical properties and structureMIV LateMars Surface and Sample returnB7-2. Landing site selectionMIV LateMars surface and Mars orbitB7-3. TrafficabilityLIV LateMars surfaceB7-4. Auto rover tech demoLIV LateEarth or Mars SurfaceB7-5. Env exposure tech demo
H
IV Late
Mars surface
B7-6. Sample handling tech
demo
L
IV Late
Earth or Mars Surface
B8
Tech: Mars Surface
B8-1. Fission power tech demo
H
IV Late
Earth
C1Phobos/Deimos surface scienceC1-1. Surface compositionHIV- P/DPhobos/Deimos rendezvous and landerC2Phobos/Deimos surface OpsC2-1. P/D electric and plasma environmentsLIV- P/DPhobos/Deimos rendezvousC2-2. P/D Gravitational fieldMIV- P/DPhobos/Deimos rendezvousC2-3. P/D regolith propertiesHIV- P/DPhobos/Deimos rendezvous and landerC2-4. P/D thermal environmentLIV- P/DPhobos/Deimos rendezvous and landerC3Technology P/DC3-1. Anchoring and surface mobility demoHIV- P/DPhobos/Deimos rendezvous and landerD1Water ResourcesD1-1. Cryo storage demoMIV+EarthD1-2. Water ISRU demoMIV+Earth or Mars SurfaceD1-3. Hydrated mineral compositionsHIV+Sample returnD1-4. Hydrated mineral occurrencesHIV+Mars OrbitD1-5. Shallow water ice composition and propertiesMIV+Mars surfaceD1-6. Shallow water ice occurrencesMIV+Mars surface and Mars orbitD2 Tech: Sustained PresenceD2-1. Repeatedly landH
IV+
Earth
D2-2. Sustain humans
HIV+EarthD2-3. Reduce logistical supportHIV+Earth
7
GFA Analysis (2 of 2)
See notes on page 1
0.
For full statements of SKGs, see Appendix 1.Slide8
8
Priority
IV-
IV early
IV late
IV+
H
A1-1
. Global T
A1-2. AerosolsA2-1. Atm modelsA4-1. Auto Rendez.A4-2. Optical CommA4-5. Propul. demoA4-6. Life supp. DemoB1-2. Surf PressureB2-1. BiohazardsB1-6. EDL demoB1-7. Ascent demoB1-1. Dust clim.B3-6. Rad. protectB4-2. Dust prop.B5-1. Special reg.B6-1. Dust prop.B7-5. Env exposB8-1. Fission
pwrD1-3. Hyd minsD1-4. Min occurD2-1. Land x ND2-2. SustainD2-3. LogisticsMA1-3. Global windA3-1. Orb Partic.A4-3. AerocaptureB1-3. Surf windsB1-4. EDL profileB3-1. NeutronsB3-2. SEPsB3-4. Cosmic raysB3-5. ToxicityB4-3. RegolithB5-3. MicrobeB5-4. Disprs modelB5-5. FPPB7-1. RegolithB7-2. Landng siteD1-1. CryoD1-2. water ISRUD1-5. Ice compD1-6. Ice occurLA4-4. Auto sysA4-7. Mech.B1-5. Atm elecB3-3. Cosmic rayB4-1. ElecB4-4. Dust mitB5-2. Model SpRB6-2. Dust columnB6-3. Trace gasB7-3. TrafficabilityB7-4. Auto roverB7-6. Samp handling
Color Key:
Mars Orbiter
Earth
MSR
Technology demo
Mars Lander (Could be MSR landers)
GFA: Priority vs.
Timing & Location
(Humans to the Martian Surface)
TimingSlide9
Relationship of SKGs to Science
If the SKG is addressed, how well is the science question answered.
9
SKGs
Scientific Objectives, Martian SystemSlide10
Summary of Findings (1 of 2)
Finding #1The high-priority gaps for a human mission to Mars orbit relate to a) atmospheric data and models for evaluation of aerocapture, and b) te
chnology demonstrations.
Finding #2
A human mission to the
Phobos
/
Deimos surface would require a precursor mission that would land on one or both moons.
Finding #3
The early robotic precursor program needed to support a human mission to the martian surface would consist of at least:One orbiterA surface sample return (the first mission element of which would need to be a sample-caching rover)A lander/rover-based in situ set of measurements (which could be made from the sample-caching rover)Certain technology demonstrationsFinding #4P-SAG has not evaluated whether it is required to send a lander or rover to the actual human landing site before humans arrive.10Slide11
Summary of Findings (2 of 2)
Finding #5For several of the SKGs, simultaneous observations from orbit and the martian surface need to be made. This requires multi-mission planning.
Finding #6
There are five particularly important areas of overlap between HEO and science objectives (in these areas,
mission concepts with dual purpose would be possible
).
Mars: Seeking the signs of past life.
Mars: Seeking the signs of present life.
Mars: Atmospheric dynamics, weather, dust climatology.
Mars: Surface geology/chemistry.P/D: General exploration of P/D.11