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Modelling for Problem Solving Modelling for Problem Solving

Modelling for Problem Solving - PowerPoint Presentation

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Modelling for Problem Solving - PPT Presentation

In The Large David Millard demsotonacuk hoosfoos davidmillardorg Problem Solving in the Large Problem Solving in the Large Real World Application Domain Computational Domain ID: 612147

solution systems problem amp systems solution amp problem options system goals evaluate method option properties draw formulate world information

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Slide1

Modelling for Problem SolvingIn The Large

David Millard

dem@soton.ac.uk

| @

hoosfoos

|

davidmillard.orgSlide2

Problem Solving in the LargeSlide3

Problem Solving in the Large

Real World

Application Domain

Computational

Domain

Solving a problem in an application domain in the real world by building a computational solution. Slide4

Problem Solving in the Large

Real World

Application Domain

Computational

Domain

Solving problems is a process that has a repeating cycle. We change the application domain when we implement the solution.

This creates the need repeat the cycle.Slide5

Systems TheorySystems theory is an interdisciplinary/multiperspectual

field of inquiry that studies the theoretical and actual properties of systems as a process by looking at it in terms of relationships from which emerge new properties of wholes. –

Wikipedia

Brings

together theoretical principles and concepts from ontology, philosophy of science, physics, biology and engineering.

In recent times systems science,

systemics

and complex systems have been used as synonyms. These have branched out into the complexity sciencesSlide6

DefinitionA system is composed of regularly interacting or interrelating groups of activities/parts which, when taken together, form a new whole. In most cases this whole has properties which cannot be found in the constituent elements.

(It is greater than the sum of its parts)Slide7

What Sorcery Is This!?

The system as a whole displays

behaviour

or properties that the individual components do

not.

How can this be?

What does the system have that the collected components do not?Slide8

Emergent Properties

The structure of the system (components

, relationships

) creates its

behavior,

the

emergent properties

Components with no structure have individual

behaviour

but no emergent propertiesSlide9

Structured in a system of purposeful activity

Emergent

property of the whole

A System: componentsSlide10

Behaviour prediction when dynamic systems interact is a non-trivial taskHow many concepts can you hold in your head at the same time?

Modelling and simulation are tools that help us to understand and predict this behaviour

‘The capacity of the human mind for formulating and solving complex problems is very small compared with the size of the problem whose solution is required for objectively rational behaviour in the real world or even for a reasonable approximation to such objective reality’

-

Herbert A. Simon, Carnegie Mellon. Slide11

Problem Solving and Unintended C

onsequences

In the early 1990’s President Clinton became concerned about

numbers

of refugees attempting to sail from Cuba to Florida. He increased the number of US Coastguard patrols close to Cuba hoping to scare off would be immigrants

What actually happened?Slide12

Problem Solving and Unintended C

onsequences

In the early 1990’s President Clinton became concerned about

numbers

of refugees attempting to sail from Cuba to Florida. He increased the number of US Coastguard patrols close to Cuba hoping to scare off would be immigrants

More people tried to leave Cuba in frail boats in the belief that they would be picked up by the US coastguards and be taken safely to AmericaSlide13

What do we model and why?Slide14

There are many kinds of models and modeling

Concorde wind tunnel models

(

Science Museum)

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A program

A

UML modelSlide15

All modelling has similar purposesInsightUnderstanding

Communication

Sharing mental models

To make sense of the world…Slide16

General Systems Theory

system

Inputs

Outputs

Emergent

properties…

Inputs are transformed

into

outputs.

The whole system has

emergent

propertiesSlide17

General Systems Theory

system

Inputs

Outputs

Control sub-system

processes

Emergent

properties…

Inputs are transformed

by interacting processes

into outputs.

The whole system has

emergent

propertiesSlide18

Hard Systems Method

Design solution options

Evaluate options

Get information

Draw pictures

Appraise resources & constraints

Formulate

goals

& objectives

Select best option

implement

solutionSlide19

Hard Systems Method

Design solution options

Evaluate options

Get information

Draw pictures

Appraise resources & constraints

Formulate

goals

& objectives

Select best option

implement

solution

Goals are not always clear or sharedSlide20

Hard Systems Method

Design solution options

Evaluate options

Get information

Draw pictures

Appraise resources & constraints

Formulate

goals

& objectives

Select best option

implement

solution

Goals are not always clear or shared

Evaluate against what?Slide21

Hard Systems Method

Design solution options

Evaluate options

Get information

Draw pictures

Appraise resources & constraints

Formulate

goals

& objectives

Select best option

implement

solution

Goals are not always clear or shared

There is not always a best option

Evaluate against what?Slide22

Hard Systems Method

Design solution options

Evaluate options

Get information

Draw pictures

Appraise resources & constraints

Formulate

goals

& objectives

Select best option

implement

solution

Goals are not always clear or shared

There is not always a best option

Not all technical solutions are feasible in reality

Evaluate against what?Slide23

Hard Systems Method

Design solution options

Evaluate options

Get information

Draw pictures

Appraise resources & constraints

Formulate

goals

& objectives

Select best option

implement

solution

Goals are not always clear or shared

There is not always a best option

Users

?

Not all technical solutions are feasible in reality

Evaluate against what?Slide24

Soft Systems Method: 7 Stage Method

Construct conceptual

model

Compare models with problem situation

Work with users Get

information

Draw

picture

s

Analyse

problem situation

Formulate root

definitions

Debate with actors

Actions for change

Real world

Conceptual world

People at the heart of the processSlide25

Soft Systems Method: 7 Stage Method

Construct conceptual

model

Compare models with problem situation

Work with users Get

information

Draw

picture

s

Analyse

problem situation

Formulate root

definitions

Debate with actors

Actions for change

Real world

Conceptual world

People at the heart of the process

But how do we do these things?Slide26

Next: Soft Systems Analysis and Modeling